World Grain - August 2013 - 20

grainmarketreview
U.S. corn production, exports
(in 1,000 tonnes)

400,000

Coarse grains
A big new crop of corn is on the way
by Chris Lyddon

Production

350,000

Exports

300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2013-14**

2012-13*

2011-12

2010-11

2009-10

2008-09

2007-08

2006-07

20

0
2005-06

The 2012-13 coarse grain marketing year is ending with tight supplies and rising prices, but a big crop is coming for 2013-14. Trading
in the new crop is affected by weather reports.
“Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-14 are projected 3.6 million tonnes lower, with 2.9 million tonnes of the decline resulting
from the tighter supply situation for corn and sorghum in the United States,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. “Foreign
coarse grain supply and use changes this month are relatively small
in the aggregate.”
The report puts U.S. corn production at 354.35 million tonnes in
2013-14. A month earlier the prediction was 355.74 million tonnes. The
USDA puts 2012-13 U.S. corn production at 273.83 million tonnes.
In its quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation report, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecast world
production of coarse grains in 2013 at about 1.275 billion tonnes, up
sharply (9.7%) from 2012.
“Latest estimates confirm increased harvests in Argentina and Brazil, the two major producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere,
while a smaller crop has been harvested in South Africa,” it said.
“Elsewhere, increased outputs are forecast among the major Northern Hemisphere producing countries.
“In the United States, where corn plantings increased and yields
are expected to return to normal after last year’s drought-reduced
levels, production is expected to recover markedly. Corn output
is also set to increase in China, which accounts for the bulk of
the production in Asia, and in the E.U., where prospects are particularly favorable in the large corn-producing areas of Romania
and Hungary.”
FAO expected greater production to support an increase in feed
use of coarse grains, “while its industrial applications, especially for
production of corn-based ethanol, are also forecast to rebound after
a decline in 2012-13.”
In a report issued on July 1, the International Grains Council (IGC)
reported a 3% rise month-on-month (m/m) in its IGC GOI corn price
index, but noted that “new crop futures were pressured lower by the
prospect of a sharp increase in supplies.”
It forecast an 11% rise in production to 946 million tonnes in
2013-14.
“Larger harvests in some countries will restrict gains in 2013-14
trade, but China is expected to be a much larger buyer,” it said.
“Export prices in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and the Black Sea
were higher compared to a month ago,” it said. “Old crop U.S. maize
futures were underpinned by very firm cash markets and slow country movement. A bearish quarterly stocks report, issued June 28,
which showed tighter than expected old crop supplies, provided a
further boost, with July futures posting 2% m/m gains.”

* Projected
** Estimated
Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Trade in new crop futures was sometimes choppy, with activity
heavily influenced by weather, the IGC said.
“Prospects for a sharp increase in 2013-14 supplies were reinforced by
a surprisingly large official plantings forecast and, with the weather outlook mostly favorable, new crop (December) futures fell by 7% m/m,”
IGC said. “Gulf premiums were lifted by tight pipeline supplies and,
with some exporters reporting difficulties sourcing sufficient amounts to
fill existing orders, nearby prices were quoted up 3% m/m, at $311 fob.”
The FAO also noted higher prices.
“International corn prices increased somewhat for the second consecutive month in June,” it said. “The benchmark U.S. corn value
(US No. 2, Yellow) averaged $300 per tonne, 2% up on its May level
and 12% higher than a year earlier. The increase reflects a continued
tight supply situation, which may persist until the arrival of new corn
crops in October. However, a stronger U.S. dollar and the forecast for
a sharp rebound in corn production limited the increase in prices.”
In the U.S., the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) welcomed a USDA report in July showing the crop in good condition
and making rapid progress toward maturity.
“Early in the season, farmers pushed ahead to plant a record number of acres despite cool, wet conditions across much of the Corn
Belt,” NCGA President Pam Johnson said. “Week after week, we are
encouraged by reports that the crop condition remains solid throughout the country and that corn maturity is moving along at a reasonable pace given average planting dates this year. Should favorable
weather continue to fuel growth, U.S. corn farmers could produce a
record crop in 2013.
“Currently, 89% of all corn acres are forecast to be in fair–to-excellent condition, with only 11% rated in poor or very poor condition, While the percentage of corn in good condition dropped by three
points (during a week in mid-July), the forecast for corn in excellent
condition held firm at 17%. Last year, only 3% of the crop was estimated to be in excellent condition at this point.”
Chris Lyddon is World Grain’s European editor.
He may be contacted at: chris.lyddon@ntlworld.com.
We want to hear from you — Send comments and inquiries to worldgrain@sosland.
com. For reprints of WG articles, e-mail reprints@sosland.com.

August 2013 / World Grain / www.World-Grain.com


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World Grain - August 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of World Grain - August 2013

World Grain - August 2013
Table of Contents
From the editor-in-chief - Incentive for farmers to plant wheat
Calendar of Events
Global Grain Geneva
News Review - Premier Foods embarks on milling reorganization
Ardent Mills chooses Denver for headquarters
Bunge’s earnings drop 50%
Cargill buys Siamakme Aquatic Feeds
Correction
Scoular acquires Virginia grain business
South Korea to resume U.S. white wheat imports
Marubeni completes acquisition of Gavilon
AGRANA profit down 12.7% in first quarter
Emerald sees record year at terminal
Japan, E.U. approve ADM, GrainCorp deal
Emmer wheat cultivated 9,800 years ago
Gavilon buys five grain facilities
Sumitomo, CJ CheilJedang form flour joint venture in Vietnam
Blumberg Grain expands investments in Nigeria
CHS earnings decline in third quarter
Grain Market Review - Coarse grains
Country Focus - Focus on Zimbabwe
Feature - Emerging opportunity in Myanmar
Regional Review - China's insatiable appetite
China's five-year plan
China's milling challenges
Feature - The growing influence of Indonesia, China
Feature - Global Grain comes to Chicago
Grain Operations - Rail safety and training
Feature - Wheat sustainability initiative
Feature - IAOM districts to meet
Supplier News
Product Showcase
World Grain Archive
Ad Index/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program
World Grain - August 2013 - World Grain - August 2013
World Grain - August 2013 - 2
World Grain - August 2013 - 3
World Grain - August 2013 - 4
World Grain - August 2013 - Table of Contents
World Grain - August 2013 - From the editor-in-chief - Incentive for farmers to plant wheat
World Grain - August 2013 - 7
World Grain - August 2013 - Global Grain Geneva
World Grain - August 2013 - 9
World Grain - August 2013 - Ardent Mills chooses Denver for headquarters
World Grain - August 2013 - 11
World Grain - August 2013 - Bunge’s earnings drop 50%
World Grain - August 2013 - Correction
World Grain - August 2013 - South Korea to resume U.S. white wheat imports
World Grain - August 2013 - AGRANA profit down 12.7% in first quarter
World Grain - August 2013 - Japan, E.U. approve ADM, GrainCorp deal
World Grain - August 2013 - Gavilon buys five grain facilities
World Grain - August 2013 - CHS earnings decline in third quarter
World Grain - August 2013 - 19
World Grain - August 2013 - Grain Market Review - Coarse grains
World Grain - August 2013 - 21
World Grain - August 2013 - Country Focus - Focus on Zimbabwe
World Grain - August 2013 - 23
World Grain - August 2013 - 24
World Grain - August 2013 - 25
World Grain - August 2013 - Feature - Emerging opportunity in Myanmar
World Grain - August 2013 - 27
World Grain - August 2013 - 28
World Grain - August 2013 - 29
World Grain - August 2013 - 30
World Grain - August 2013 - 31
World Grain - August 2013 - 32
World Grain - August 2013 - 33
World Grain - August 2013 - Regional Review - China's insatiable appetite
World Grain - August 2013 - 35
World Grain - August 2013 - 36
World Grain - August 2013 - 37
World Grain - August 2013 - 38
World Grain - August 2013 - 39
World Grain - August 2013 - 40
World Grain - August 2013 - 41
World Grain - August 2013 - China's five-year plan
World Grain - August 2013 - 43
World Grain - August 2013 - 44
World Grain - August 2013 - 45
World Grain - August 2013 - 46
World Grain - August 2013 - 47
World Grain - August 2013 - 48
World Grain - August 2013 - 49
World Grain - August 2013 - China's milling challenges
World Grain - August 2013 - 51
World Grain - August 2013 - 52
World Grain - August 2013 - 53
World Grain - August 2013 - Feature - The growing influence of Indonesia, China
World Grain - August 2013 - 55
World Grain - August 2013 - 56
World Grain - August 2013 - 57
World Grain - August 2013 - 58
World Grain - August 2013 - 59
World Grain - August 2013 - Feature - Global Grain comes to Chicago
World Grain - August 2013 - 61
World Grain - August 2013 - 62
World Grain - August 2013 - 63
World Grain - August 2013 - 64
World Grain - August 2013 - 65
World Grain - August 2013 - Grain Operations - Rail safety and training
World Grain - August 2013 - 67
World Grain - August 2013 - 68
World Grain - August 2013 - 69
World Grain - August 2013 - 70
World Grain - August 2013 - 71
World Grain - August 2013 - Feature - Wheat sustainability initiative
World Grain - August 2013 - 73
World Grain - August 2013 - 74
World Grain - August 2013 - 75
World Grain - August 2013 - 76
World Grain - August 2013 - 77
World Grain - August 2013 - Feature - IAOM districts to meet
World Grain - August 2013 - 79
World Grain - August 2013 - 80
World Grain - August 2013 - 81
World Grain - August 2013 - 82
World Grain - August 2013 - 83
World Grain - August 2013 - Supplier News
World Grain - August 2013 - 85
World Grain - August 2013 - 86
World Grain - August 2013 - 87
World Grain - August 2013 - Product Showcase
World Grain - August 2013 - World Grain Archive
World Grain - August 2013 - Ad Index/Reader Information Form International Faxback Program
World Grain - August 2013 - 91
World Grain - August 2013 - 92
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http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2007_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2006_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_08_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_07_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_06_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_05_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_04_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_03_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_02_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2005_01_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_12_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_11_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_02
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_10_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_09_01
http://digital.world-grain.com/sosland/wg/2004_08_01
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com