July 2009 - 40

PLAY BRIDGE

?

Ask Jerry

Jerry Helms

www.jerryhelms.com

Dear Jerry,
One of my partners insists that
to open 1, I must hold at least
a four-card suit. This means that
sometimes I have to open 1 with
a doubleton, which we Announce
as "may be short." Although I have
agreed to do this, I feel uncomfortable and I am not even sure why.
What do you think of this agreement?
Minor Confusion
Dear MC,
Not much! I am really glad you
asked this question because it is a
subject that I have a strong opinion
about ... but by now, I guess that's no
surprise!
I play that a 1 opening bid
implies at least four. By agreement,
if we must open a three-card minor
suit, we open 1 irrespective of suit
quality. This means the only time 1
would be the choice on a three-card
suit is when holding exactly four
spades, four hearts, three diamonds
and two clubs. According to The
Official Encyclopedia of Bridge, the
probability of holding any 4-4-3-2
distribution is 21.55%, but the probability of specifically holding four
spades, four hearts, three diamonds
and two clubs is 1.796%. So on this
basis, your 1 openings will include
at least four diamonds 98.204% of
the time. But wait! If you further
calculate that a one-level opening
40

bid shows between 12 and 21 highcard points (and factor out the 15
to 17 HCP with this shape that are
opened 1NT), the probability of a
four-card or longer diamond suit for
a 1 opener increases to 99.56%.
The odds of being forced to open 1
with a three-card suit, therefore, are
extremely low.
Now that you have skimmed over
this statistical mumbo jumbo, which
by the way, was provided and confirmed by some of my more geeky,
mathematically gifted friends, let's
apply this to real life. Do you really
need a 100% guarantee of four or
more diamonds? Or is 99.56% high
enough? I think so.
This has implications for 1 openings, too. Consider the following
hand and auction:
9 7 4 A K Q 8 6 3 9 8 3 2.
Partner RHO
1
1

You
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Integrate what you can see in your
hand with what you have heard. Partner has suggested 12 or more points
and you have 9. At this point, you are
aware that your side possesses at least
50% of the total values available on
this deal. 1NT, while accurate on both
values and shape, lacks the requisite
spade stopper. In competitive auctions, it is important to communicate
values as quickly as possible before
the opportunity goes away. A simple
raise to 2 showing 6 to 10 points
with support seems about right ...
unless of course, partner could hold
a doubleton using the "may be short"
method! Although the possibility
of three clubs in opener's hand is
troubling, I know we have at least a
4-3 fit, which provides a small mea-

sure of comfort. Regardless of how
the auction continues, my partner is
armed with the knowledge that I have
a smattering of values with some
form of club support.
I am prepared for the statistical assault by those in favor of opening 1
with a doubleton.
Call me an old-fashioned traditionalist if you wish. Personally, I prefer
the 100% guarantee that opener holds
at least three clubs when they open
1 even though it means there is
only a 99.56% chance he holds at
least four diamonds when he opens
1.
r

Mike's
Bridge
Lesson
By
Mike
Lawrence

I see and hear a lot of talk about
suit-preference signals. Some is good,
some bad and some off the wall.
The issue of suit-preference signals
is worth extensive discussion with
your partner to make sure the two of
you are on the same page.
Continued on pages 42-43
Bridge Bulletin
http://www.jerryhelms.com
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of July 2009
