August 2018 - 46

Newer Players

Play & Learn
BY PAT HARRINGTON

ppharrr@gmail.com

Dummy's long suit
On the deal below, North-South
reach 4♥ after South responds 2♥to
North's 1♠ opening. West gets off to a
good start with the ♦Q opening lead,
and the defenders quickly win three
diamonds and then switch to a club.
We win, but still have a club loser that
must be eliminated to make 4♥. How?
Dlr: North ♠ 10 8 7 6 2
Vul: None ♥ A Q 9
♦K53
♣A2
♠J4
♠Q953
♥42
♥53
♦ Q J 10 9
♦A87
♣98754
♣ K Q 10 6
♠AK
♥ K J 10 8 7 6
♦642
♣J3
In a suit contract, declarer has three
ways to eliminate a loser: trump it,
dump it or take a finesse.
No finesse is available here. There's
no useful shortness in dummy, nor
does dummy have an obvious winner
that can serve as a place to discard a
loser. Dummy does have one asset,
though - a long side suit. We can try to
make one of dummy's spades good so
we can discard South's remaining club
on it.
Provided neither opponent has more
than four spades, we can ruff dummy's
spades good - one of the rare times
when declarer makes an effort to ruff
in the long trump hand. We have just

46 Bridge Bulletin August 2018

enough high spades and can afford to
ruff high so we won't have to lose any
tricks in the process. Our plan should
work when we get the most likely 4-2
spade split and also when we get a
lucky 3-3 spade split.
With no information from the auction or play, the Odd-Even Rule can
help us predict how the opponents'
cards in a suit are likely to split. An odd
number of outstanding cards is likely
to split as evenly as possible, so we
expect five missing cards to split 3-2,
and three missing cards to split 2-1. An
even number of missing cards is most
likely to split one off from exactly even.
Thus, 3-1 is the most likely split of four
missing cards and 4-2 is the expected
split of six missing cards. However an
exception occurs with only two cards
missing. The odds slightly favor a 1-1
split. The Odd-Even Rule isn't guaranteed because it's not really a rule. It's
just a quick and easy way to determine
the most likely split of the defenders'
cards in a suit based on mathematical
probabilities.
When setting up one or more discards on winners in dummy, we must
have sufficient entries to set up our
tricks and cash them once they are
good. By the time East-West let us
have the lead, what entries are left in
our North dummy? With all the high
minor-suit cards gone from dummy,
we have three trump entries provided
we play our cards right, overtaking
whatever heart we lead from our hand
each time.

How many of those entries do we
need to set up a low spade? We can't
know for sure, but we can plan based
on the expected 4-2 split of the missing spades. With that split, we'll need
to lead spades five times - four times
(the larger number in the needed 4-2
split) to deplete both opponents of
spades, plus one more time to cash our
hard-earned winner. All this must be
done without losing any more tricks!
South's ♠A K can be cashed without
using any dummy entries.
Once both East and West follow to
the second spade lead, we know spades
are splitting no worse than 4-2. You
did notice that, didn't you? When making a long suit good, you have to count
that suit as well as the trump suit.
North's entries must be used for the remaining spade leads. Overtake the ♥6
with the ♥9. When both opponents
follow, we know we haven't gotten a
bad 4-0 trump split, so our plan will
work. Now ruff a spade high. At this
point, we know that East has one spade
left, so overtake the ♥7 with the ♥Q to
get back to dummy for a second spade
ruff. Both opponents follow again, so
trumps are drawn. Ruff another spade.
The ♥A provides the entry needed to
cash the fifth spade and discard that
annoying club loser.
A long, strong suit in dummy is an
obvious clue to declarer to consider
discarding losers on that suit. A long
suit that isn't so strong isn't as obvious,
but it still offers a chance to eliminate
a loser. The power of the trump suit
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of August 2018
