August 2021 - 58

Advanced Players
Bidding Matters
Relearning bridge - part 17
I
n the early days of bridge, many
experts regarded notrump as a
" Plan B " bid, best used only after a
partnership had investigated all suit
contracts. That view has changed in
the modern game, in part because
responder now has Stayman, transfers
and other ways to find trump fits.
Those methods have allowed pairs
to take advantage of the other benefits
of notrump openers. Besides making
it more difficult for the opponents
to overcall, 1NT is the only one-level
opening that shows an exact threepoint
range. This makes it easy for
responder to determine the level of the
final contract.
Or so your bridge teacher probably
told you. For simplicity, beginners
are often taught to rely on arithmetic
when responding with a balanced
hand. The basic advice is to add your
points to opener's to determine if you
have - or might have - the 25 points
needed for game.
Is it 25 or 26 points?
With experience, we begin using more
than just point-count to assess game
prospects. We also learn that the
25-point target for bidding 3NT is too
low for some types of hands, even when
you have all suits stopped.
The 25-point guideline is already
a reduction from the 26 points that
Charles Goren and other experts once
recommended for bidding 3NT, 4 or
4 with relatively flat hands. A combined
25 points will, however, give you
nearly a 60% chance of making 3NT
when your points are divided fairly
evenly - 13 and 12, 14-11, 15-10. When
one hand is significantly stronger, the
odds drop because of limited entries to
the weaker hand.
One high-card point does make a
58 | Bridge Bulletin | August 2021
difference. With 24 combined points,
game is only a 40% proposition, even
when your strength is divided equally.
With 26 points, though, your success
rate will be more than 70% for all point
splits up to 20-6.
With those probabilities in mind,
what's your call with this hand after
partner opens a 15-17 1NT?
K J 5 Q 10 9 7 5 4 Q 6 5 2
Point counters will invite with 2NT,
because it's possible you have 25 total
points. As noted above, though, 17 opposite
8 doesn't rate to play as well as
other combinations that add to 25.
The bigger problem is that your invitation
may get you to game when you have
only 24 points. Opener will bid 3NT with
a good 16 (and some partners will accept
with any 16). There's another danger if
your partner ever upgrades and opens
1NT with a strong 14. He'll pass your
2NT, but with just 22 total points, he
won't be a favorite to take eight tricks.
The Rule of 25
Expert Danny Kleinman offers good
advice with his " Rule of 25, " which is
based on the probable outcomes of these
game contracts. It's a three-part guideline
that can help you decide whether to
invite with borderline hands:
1. If you know the partnership has at
least 25 HCP, insist on game.
2. If you know the partnership has at
most 25 HCP, stop in a partscore.
3. If you know the partnership may
have either more OR less than 25
HCP, invite game.
The advice is to invite when game is
likely, not just possible. Over partner's
15-17 1NT, that means pass with
a flat 8 points (you and partner have
23 to 25 points) and invite with 9 (24
to 26 points).
BY KAREN WALKER
kwbridge.com
There are exceptions. An 8-point
hand with a decent five-card suit:
9 5 3 A 10 4 K J 8 4 3 5 2
or good four-card majors:
J 10 8 2 A 9 8 4 6 2 K 5 4
is worth a stretch. You may also want
to be a bit more aggressive in team play,
where the odds favor bidding a vulnerable
game that's 40% or better.
If you were taught to invite with a
balanced 8 or 9 points opposite a 15-
17 1NT, consider bumping your range
up to 8.5 (maybe 8.75?) to 9. Pass
with less and don't worry that opener
might have a perfect maximum. In the
long run, your extra plus scores will
more than make up for missing a rare
game.

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August 2021

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of August 2021
