September 2022 - 67

Special Contributor
BY DR. JAMES
MARSH STERNBERG
mmay001@aol.com
E
very time someone brings
up Stayman and asks, " How
many points do you need to bid
Stayman after partner opens 1NT? "
you can bet your last dollar someone
will say, " Eight is enough. " What do
you think?
The Stayman convention is one of
the two most well-known and popular
bridge conventions, Blackwood
being the other. It was first introduced
by Jack Marx in England in
1939, but not published until September
1946 in the Contract Bridge Journal
as, " What? Another Convention? "
In the meantime in the U.S., George
Rapee, Sam Stayman's tournament
partner, first introduced the artificial
2' response to partner's 1NT
opener. Rapee was less interested in
popularizing the convention and allowed
Stayman its namesake, which
Sam published in The Bridge World,
September 1946, as " A New NT Convention. "
If
you read most bridge instruction
books, you will get the standard
answer of " invite with eight. " But is
that all there is to it? About how many
high-card points do we need between
declarer and dummy to make game?
The usual answer is 26 HCP. No
guarantees, but a reasonable number.
With perfect declarer play and perfect
defense, most say you will make game
80% of the time. Of course, usually
neither is perfect and probably the
defense is more likely to slip up than
the declarer. But let's use 26.
The website 60SecondBridge.com
quotes an 80% success rate for major-suit
games featuring 26 HCP and
an eight-card fit, as opposed to 60%
for notrump games with 26 HCP. It
follows those figures by saying that
Consults with the Doctor
Eight is enough?
you need 8-9 HCP to invite. This
certainly seems contradictory: Even
with a maximum 17-point 1NT opener,
a responding hand with only 8 HCP
means the declaring side has just 25
HCP. This decreases the likelihood
of successfully navigating 3NT even
more.
If you search online for " game
points needed, " you will find the
value to be 25 HCP, and " invite with
8-9. " Wikipedia says, " 8 HCP for an
invitational bid opposite a standard
strong 1NT opening or overcall showing
15-17 HCP. "
When partner opens a strong 15-17
1NT, what are the chances opener has
15 HCP? 16? 17? It's about 44% for 15
HCP, 33% for 16 HCP, and 23% for 17.
So, let's do the math. You don't have
to be a math major for this. If you
invite with 8 HCP, 44% of the time
you'll be facing a 15-point hand, and
your partner will be playing 2NT instead
of 1NT. I don't know about you,
but going down one in 2NT is very
annoying, especially when I could
have been in 1NT.
But not all 8-point hands are created
equal. For example, you hold:
Q 8 6 5 kQ 6 5 lQ 9 8 3 'Q 6.
If you religiously count points, you
will bid Stayman, and over 2l, bid
2NT. Without a four-card major, you
would just bid 2NT, invitational, to
start.
What about this 8-point hand:
8 6 5 k6 5 l9 8 3 'A K J 6 2?
With this hand, I would raise 1NT
to 3NT. The odds are good you have
five tricks for partner.
Consider this hand:
Q 10 9 8 kQ 10 9 lQ 10 8 'Q 10 8.
September 2022 | Bridge Bulletin |
67
Again, I would not bid 2NT invitational.
I would bid 3NT. Notice the
difference between this hand and the
first example?
Could you miss a game by passing
most 8-HCP hands? The answer
is maybe and who cares? Why? As
Jerry Helms often says, " I'm glad you
asked. " First, we can certainly agree
that if you arrive in 3NT, it's going to
be a close, nip-and-tuck game. You
probably have a combined high-card
total of about 24.
Consider matchpoint scoring. Let's
say top on a board is 12, average is 6.
So you are in 1NT, having reluctantly
taken my advice and not invited with
your 8-count. And your partner plays
like a genius and makes two or three.
Someone bids and makes game;
they get a 12 on the board. Someone
bids game and goes down; they get a
zero. You get a 9 or 10, but didn't bid
game. A few get average, for making
1NT (plus 90).
OK, next board, same problem. You
play 1NT making one, two or three.
The pair who overbid a bit, but made
game on the previous board, bids
game again and goes down this time:
zero. Board 3: You play 1NT, making
whatever, and score another 9 or 10
matchpoints. On and on, you never
bid any of these close games, just keep
racking up plus scores, anywhere
from 7-10 matchpoints on a 12 scale.
The day ends, your partner says,
" Partner, we missed a few games. "
You reply, " I guess our 75% game is
not good enough for you. "
Obviously if you have 10-plus HCP,
you are bidding game like everyone
and getting average. I'm only talking
about the 8- or 9-pointers.
http://www.60SecondBridge.com
September 2022

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of September 2022
