Power April 2022 Intl - 5

SPEAKING OF POWER
Power Companies
Must Plan to Deal
with Climate Risks
Aaron Larson
he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) issued a report
at the end of February titled " Climate
Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability. " Among the warnings
found in the 3,675-page report is that human-induced
climate change is causing
dangerous and widespread disruption in
nature and affecting the lives of billions
of people around the world, despite efforts
to reduce the risks.
" When we look at the quantitative
T
evidence, we clearly see that global average
temperatures and sea levels have
risen over the last 150 years, and that
we are still on that trend. We also see
that climate models cannot replicate historical
observed global and continental
changes without the human-related inputs,
such as greenhouse gas emissions
and land use activity, " Dr. Steven Rose,
senior research economist and technical
executive in the Energy Systems and
Climate Analysis Group at the Electric
Power Research Institute (EPRI), who
was also one of the lead authors of the
IPCC report, told POWER.
" The evidence that climate change is
affecting society and ecosystems has
grown and is continuing to grow. That evidence
not only helps us characterize the
risks, but also helps us understand the
contributions of both climate and societal
factors that are necessary for managing
those risks. The health and prosperity of
future society depends on both, " he said.
Among Rose's
biggest
takeaways
from the IPCC report are that climate
change will affect all natural and human
systems; more climate change is expected
and climate risks will increase;
adaptation and resilience planning will
be needed; and the economic impacts of
climate change will likely increase with
the level of global warming.
The High Cost of Extreme Weather
Earlier this year, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration's National Centers
for Environmental Information (NCEI),
the self-proclaimed " scorekeeper " of severe
weather and climate events, reported
April 2022 | POWER
that there were 20 " weather/climate disaster
events " with losses exceeding $1 billion
each that affected the U.S. in 2021. These
events included one drought event, two
flooding events, 11 severe storm events,
four tropical cyclone events, one wildfire
event, and one winter storm event. The
events had significant economic impacts,
with overall costs estimated to be about
$145 billion, according to NCEI estimates.
Among the billion-dollar weather and climate
disasters was the winter storm and
cold wave that struck much of the U.S. Feb.
10-19, 2021. It brought frigid temperatures,
snow, and ice from the Plains to southern
Texas. It was the coldest event across the
continental U.S. in more than 30 years, according
to the NCEI, and it caused power
outages for nearly 10 million people. The
agency reported that 226 people died as a
result of the disaster and the total cost was
estimated to be $24 billion.
Another notable event was an extreme
heat wave that shattered temperature
records across many parts of the Pacific
Northwest June 27-30, 2021. Temperatures
in Portland, Oregon, soared to 116F,
breaking the city's previous all-time high of
107F. Further north, in Seattle, Washington,
temperatures reached a sizzling 108F, surpassing
the previous record of 103F set in
2009. In Lytton, British Columbia, the temperature
hit 121F, setting a new national
record in Canada. The NCEI lumped that
event together with widespread drought
conditions across many Western states,
and reported a total of 229 deaths and cost
of $8.9 billion as a result.
Highest CO2 Emissions Ever
Climate activists have been calling for
people to stop burning fossil fuels for
decades. While their pleas have helped
slow the growth in emissions, the trend
has not turned downward yet. The International
Energy Agency (IEA) reported
on March 8 that global energy-related
CO2
above pre-pandemic levels has largely
been driven by China, where CO2
emissions
increased by 750 million tonnes
between 2019 and 2021. The emissions
increases in China more than offset the
aggregate decline in the rest of the world
over the same period. In 2021, China's
CO2
emissions accounted for nearly a
third of the global total. CO2
emissions
in India also rebounded strongly in 2021
driven by growth in coal use for electricity
generation. Coal-fired generation reached
an all-time high in India, spiking 13%
above its 2020 level, according to the IEA.
Managing Climate Risks
It is clear that some amount of additional
climate change should be expected. So,
what should we do? " Plan for the effects
of a changing climate, " Rose said. " That
planning process needs to start with defining
relationships
between potential
changing climate variables and current
technology, system, and market design
specifications, " he added.
EPRI researchers have conducted extensive
analysis on the impacts extreme
weather events can have on the power
industry. Among recommendations outlined
in a recent EPRI report are: ensuring
load and renewable generation profiles
are synchronized, use sufficient historical
data, and incorporate projected climate
trends; modeling correlated generating
unit outages; and developing/utilizing resource
adequacy metrics that consider
the outsized impact extreme weather
events may have on the system. Additionally,
EPRI and the Enel Foundation
launched a virtual workshop series focused
on electric sector climate adaptation
to strengthen electric grid resiliency.
Is there any reason to be optimistic?
emissions increased by 6% in 2021
to 36.3 billion tonnes, the highest level
ever, as the world economy rebounded
strongly from the COVID-19 crisis and relied
heavily on coal to power that growth.
The rebound in global CO2
emissions
www.powermag.com
Rose seemed to think so. " I'm most
struck by the proactiveness and level
of thinking I'm seeing throughout the
world. There is certainly a lot more to do,
and opportunities to improve, but I see
evidence worldwide of constructive efforts
to understand the risks of climate
change and to address them, " he said. ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
5
http://www.powermag.com
Power April 2022 Intl

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