POWER April 2023 - 8
GLOBAL MONITOR
THE BIG PICTURE: A History of Useful
Energy Costs
A. INFLATION-ADJUSTED USEFUL ENERGY COSTS AS
A FUNCTION OF TIME
KEY
Oil (primary)
Coal (primary)
Gas (primary)
Coal electricity
Gas electricity
Traditional biomass
Nuclear electricity
Hydropower
Biopower
Wind electricity
Solar PV electricity
Batteries (lifetime-adjusted)
P2X fuel from solar and wind
(modeled)
An energy cost study by researchers at the
University of Oxford in the UK illustrates how the
energy landscape has evolved over the last 140
years. The graph at the top (A) shows the historical
costs of the principal energy technologies, while
the bottom graph (B) shows their deployment. " As
we approach the present in [A], the diagram
becomes more congested, making it clear that we
are in a period of unprecedented energy diversity,
with many technologies with global average costs
around $100/MWh competing for dominance, " the
researchers write.
B. GLOBAL USEFUL ENERGY PRODUCTION
Year
" The long-term trends provide a clue as to how
this competition may be resolved: The prices of
fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas are volatile,
but after adjusting for inflation, prices now are
very similar to what they were 140 years ago, and
there is no obvious long-range trend. In contrast,
for several decades the costs of solar PV, wind, and
batteries have dropped (roughly) exponentially at
a rate near 10% per year. The cost of solar PV has
decreased by more than three orders of magnitude
since its first commercial use in 1958. "
The bottom graph (B) documents the slow
exponential rise in oil and natural gas production
over a century and the rapid rise and plateauing
of nuclear energy. " But perhaps the most remarkable
feature is the dramatic exponential rise in the
deployment of solar PV, wind, batteries, and
electrolyzers over the last decades as they
transitioned from niche applications to mass
markets, " the researchers add. " Their rate of
increase is similar to that of nuclear energy in the
1970s, but unlike nuclear energy, they have all
consistently experienced exponentially decreasing
costs. "
Source: Way et al., Joule 6, 2057-2082, September
21, 2022, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.Year
8
www.powermag.com
joule.2022.08.009).
-Sonal
Patel is a POWER senior associate editor.
POWER | April 2023
Useful energy production (EJ/year)
Useful energy cost ($/MWh in 2020 dollars)
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2022.08.009
http://www.powermag.com
POWER April 2023
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of POWER April 2023
POWER April 2023 - Cover1
POWER April 2023 - Cover2
POWER April 2023 - 1
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POWER April 2023 - Cover3
POWER April 2023 - Cover4
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