POWER February 2011 - 29

ASSET MANAGEMENT
about solar storms and GICs. However, the
new cycle has started, and predictions indicate
that the next solar peak could be 30-50%
higher than the peak of the last cycle. "
Although EPRI can provide invaluable information,
implementing the work of the industry's
research arm is the responsibility of
individual utilities, and each storm event will
be different. That means, noted EPRI's Van
der Zel, that contingency planning is difficult,
requiring both individual utility effort and regional
cooperation. " Every storm is different
and difficult and complex to model, " he said.
In addition, " every utility's generation and
transmission configuration is unique and each
transformer has its own overlay of risk. "
Complicating the response picture, solar
storms, though potentially catastrophic, are not
very predictable, in either frequency or strength.
They represent what the industry has come to
call " high-impact, low-frequency " (HILF)
risks. Solar storms get grouped under this rubric
with electromagnetic pulse events, which
might be caused by the detonation of atomic
bombs by an enemy hoping to take down the
high-voltage grid-an added complexity for
utility response planning. Other HILF risks in
the utility planning process include the more
mundane, such as conventional weather effects,
including tornadoes and hurricanes.
Ed Legge at the Edison Electric Institute,
which represents U.S. investor-owned electric
utilities, said, " The whole idea is, how do you
build for something where you don't know
what the severity will be? How do you manage
the risk? Do electric customers need to start
paying extra? " Legge added that utilities have
already spent large amounts on preparations
for HILF risks, but passing costs on to customers,
either in advance, or after a catastrophe,
will be difficult in a political environment
characterized by what he terms " an anti-rateincrease
fervor. " Legge said, " When it comes
down to it, it comes down to what state regulators
are willing to do. They are the place where
we have to recover the costs. "
The National Association of Regulatory
Utility Commissioners, the Washington lobbying
group for state regulators, is well aware
of the issues presented by solar storms and
has been working with it members, NERC,
and other groups, such as the National Association
of State Energy Offices, the Department
of Energy (DOE), and the Department
of Homeland Security (DHS). But regulators
are caught in a priority trap, one that also ensnares
utilities. More visible and immediate
issues, such as tree trimming and conventional
storm response, dominate the daily regulatory
agenda in the area of emergency response.
FERC, working with the DHS, would be
at the front line of a response to a major solar
storm. But the agency says it lacks authority
under the Federal Power Act to take decisive
action in response to a solar emergency in a
balkanized industry where the lines between
federal and state authority are vague and controversial.
The DOE, which follows this issue
through its Office of Electricity Delivery and
Energy Reliability, can fund research and development
(R&D) to prevent damage, but its
role is limited beyond that.
Congress has also gotten into the act, driven
both by FERC's professed need for more authority
over state actions in an emergency and
concerns from the insurance industry. Last April,
5. Three views of space weather. NASA notes that there are three principal " visual "
elements of space weather. With the help of satellite imaging, we are able to " see " the surface
of the sun and CME events (left), the ultraviolet activity in Earth's atmosphere (center), and,
under the right atmospheric conditions, aurora. Source: NASA
insurance giant Zurich Services Corp. published
an analysis of the exposure of various industries
to solar storms, including the prospect of replacing
large high-voltage, grounded transformers
at $10 million a pop. The study concluded that
a large solar storm would be an event " beyond
insurance. " That prompted some in the 111th
Congress to take up the issue.
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) was the chief
sponsor of a bill-H.R. 5026, known as the
" GRID Act " -that would have given FERC
the authority it says it needs to respond to a
solar storm emergency. The bill passed the
House unanimously last year, but the Senate
Energy Committee, working on legislation
aimed at electromagnetic pulse protection,
failed to include solar storms in its bill. Nothing
passed the last Congress, but there likely
will be an attempt to resurrect legislation in
the new Congress that convened in January.
In the meantime, EPRI and the DHS are
working on a project to design prototype recovery
transformers that could temporarily
replace damaged equipment after a storm. As
described at an online conference last December,
the Recovery Transformer (RecX) Project
would build and pre-position truck-mounted
single-phase 345-kV transformers as temporary
fixes if a conventional three-phase, 345kV
machine were damaged. The idea, says
the DHS, is to design a transformer " that is
smaller and easier to transport and quick to
install. Eventually, the project would produce
solid-state transformers that are smaller and
lighter and could be transported by helicopter.
So far, according to several officials, the federal
government has put up about $20 million
for R&D for the RecX Project.
But deciding to build, buy, and preposition the
backup transformers, note government officials,
is a matter for the private sector, using private
funds. That triggers the panoply of problems associated
with the U.S. power sector, including
multiple entities, sector rivalries (such as those
between public power and the investor-owned
utilities), and blurred jurisdiction.
Is all the current activity sufficient to protect
the country in case of a solar storm of
serious magnitude? Solar storm chaser Kappenman
has doubts. " The problem is, today's
power grid has not really been exposed to
these large storms, " he said. The industry
plans are all based on storms of the magnitude
of the 1989 event, but that's the wrong
target, said Kappenman. " We now understand
that storms 10 times worse can occur
and have occurred. We are operating against
an unprecedented challenge. This is the largest
natural disaster the country could face and
it is certain to happen, given enough time. " ■
-Kennedy Maize is executive editor of
MANAGING POWER and a POWER contributing
editor.
February 2011 | POWER
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POWER February 2011

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