POWER February 2023 - 12

GLOBAL MONITOR
5. The Hunutlu thermal power plant in Sugözü
village, Yumurtalık district, Adana, Türkiye, is a
1.32-GW twin-unit ultrasupercritical coal-fired
power plant that came online in September
2022. The $1.7 billion project was a joint
venture between Chinese firm Shanghai
Electric Power, AVIC International Project
Engineering, and two Turkish firms. Courtesy:
EMBA Power
million tonnes (MT)-to a total of 377
MT in 2022.
The agency also projected optimistic
economics for coal power over the near
term. " The current forward markets indicate
that the marginal costs of coal-fired
power plants will be far below those of
gas-fired power plants in the next few
years, " it suggested. " This would only
change in 2025 when forward gas prices
are low enough to place efficient gasfired
power plants ahead of inefficient
coal-fired ones. However, lignite-fired
power plants are expected to remain
very competitive until 2025. "
However, the agency still expects that
EU countries will continue moving forward
with plans to phase out coal generation
from 2024 onward. " Germany, in
particular, plans to reduce its power plant
fleet by 6.2 GW of hard coal and 2.9 GW
of lignite power plant capacity from 2021
to 2025, " the IEA said. " In view of a firm
ramp-up of electricity production from
renewables and a recovery in French
nuclear power, our models indicate that
Germany, the EU's largest coal-fired
power generator, will turn from a net
exporter of electricity to a net importer
in this period, " it said. For now, the IEA
expects only one European country-Poland-will
likely keep its coal generation
levels firm until 2025. However, the coal
demand picture continues to develop, it
notes. Türkiye (as Turkey is officially now
known), for example, in September 2022
began operating the new 1.3 GW Hunutlu
coal power plant (Figure 5).
Coal generation's surge in China
and India, where coal has historically
dominated power profiles, also surged
during 2022. While gas power comprises
only a fraction of these countries'
power generation, the surge is
12
attributed to lower renewables output.
China marked a 15% year-on-year
surge in coal power in August 2022,
as hydropower output faltered during
a heat wave. The IEA suggested
that China may double down on coal
power despite a recent slowdown. In
2021, it commissioned an estimated
26 GW of new coal-fired power plants
and began construction on 33 GW (the
most since 2016). Though capacity additions
slowed to 7.5 GW in the first six
months of 2022, coal may be slated to
serve as a " backbone " for China's energy
security, it said.
" Following the power shortages in
2020 and 2021 and the drought in 2022,
national and local governments intend to
further issue more permits for new coal
power plants, with a potential of up to
270 GW coal-fired power plant capacity
by 2025, " the agency noted. " If these
plans are realized, the additional capacity
would total more than any other country
in the world currently has installed. "
China already accounts for about
55% of the global coal power capacity
under development, the IEA noted. The
IEA also said, however, that " [I]t is unlikely
that the additional coal-fired power
plants will be operated at full capacity,
as they are largely intended to ensure
energy security and are therefore not
expected to directly increase coal consumption
in China's power sector. " That's
why the IEA projects a moderate 2.3%
growth per year (by about 5,731 TWh) for
coal power in China by 2025.
India, which today relies on coal power
for 73% of its power, on the other hand,
could see much more considerable coal
power growth. " Coal-fired power plants
make up 50% of the overall installed
capacity of 404 GW connected to grids,
with another 25 GW currently under construction, "
the IEA said. While India is targeting
a share of 50% renewables in its
power mix by 2030, and it has required
81 coal plants to reduce their power generation
by a total 58 TWh over the next
four years, none of its 172 grid-connected
coal power plants are slated for retirement.
" We expect India's coal demand
to rise steadily, " the IEA said, predicting
use of about 1,220 Mt in 2025, with 8%
metallurgical coal and 92% thermal coal.
In Japan, coal generation fell by 1.1%
during 2021, but the IEA projected coal
demand would rise by 1.8% in 2022, owing
to higher gas prices. Over the near
term, Japan's coal generation will likely
also grow, albeit moderately, the agency
said. " Thermal capacity will increase by
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about 1.03 GW in total, of which coalfired
capacity will account for a net
gain of about 0.7 GW. Forward prices
indicate that coal will remain competitive
with spot gas for power generation
through 2025. " Whether Japan follows
through with its intentions to extend the
lifetime of four of its 33 available nuclear
power plants to 60 years in response to
higher electricity prices and efforts to
reinforce energy security may determine
coal power's future trajectory for
the country, it suggested.
And in South Korea, where like Japan,
utilities procure liquefied natural gas
(LNG) through long-term contracts, " opportunity
costs are high and-at the margin-coal
remains cost-competitive with
gas. " In 2022, South Korea suspended
generation caps and temporary coal
plant shutdowns to substitute for expensive
gas generation. Looking ahead,
while South Korea recently started the
1.4 GW Shin Hanul 1 nuclear reactor,
it will also start the ultrasupercritical
coal-fired 2-GW Anin power station in
Gangwon Province. " By 2025, however,
Korean coal-fired power generation will
decline somewhat and reach about the
same level as in 2022, despite the commissioning
of another 2-GW coal-fired
capacity (Samcheok power station), as
old units are decommissioned and power
generation from renewables increases, "
the IEA said.
Meanwhile, coal generation in Southeast
Asia is slated to rise, particularly
in Indonesia and Vietnam. Indonesia in
2022 started up Adaro Energy's new
2-GW Batang coal power
plant, and
Bukit Asam's 1.32-GW Sumel 8, while
Vietnam opened the 1.2-GW Ngho Son
2 power plant. While both Indonesia and
Vietnam have pledged to pause coal
power development, the agency noted
that several new coal plants could open
over the near term. " The importance of
coal-fired generation, however, is about
to increase in the foreseeable future as
there are still several coal-fired power
plants under construction in Indonesia,
and in Viet Nam the 1.2 GW Vung Ang 2
is expected to begin generation in 2025, "
the IEA noted.
-Sonal Patel is a senior associate editor
for POWER.
POWER Digest
Geothermal Plant Planned in Colombia.
Colombian
petroleum company Ecopetrol
in December announced plans
to build a 250-kW geothermal power
plant in the Apiay oil complex in Meta,
POWER | February 2023
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POWER February 2023

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