POWER January 2011 - 29

2011 INDUSTRY FORECAST
The Skyrocketing Price of New Power Generation
R.W. Beck Inc. recently completed a study of
the capital costs of new construction power
generation alternatives. The November 2010
report, " Updated Capital Cost Estimates for
Electricity Generation Plants, " was commissioned
by the U.S. Energy Information Agency
(EIA) to estimate the " overnight " and operational
and maintenance costs of a wide range
of generation alternatives that will be used
in future EIA projections. Overnight costs are
those associated with constructing a plant as
if it were constructed in a single day. TherePlant
characteristics
Nominal
capacity
(MW)
Coal
Single unit advanced pulverized coal (PC)
Dual unit advanced PC
Single unit advanced PC with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
Dual unit advanced PC with CCS
Single unit integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
Dual unit IGCC
Single unit IGCC with CCS
Natural gas
Coventional natural gas combined cycle (NGCC)
Advanced NGCC
Advanced NGCC with CCS
Conventional combustion turbine (CT)
Advanced CT
Fuel cells
Uranium
Dual unit nuclear
Biomass
Biomass combined cycle
Biomass bubbling fluidized bed
Wind
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar
Solar thermal
Small photovoltaic
Large photovoltaic
Geothermal
Geothermal, dual flash
Geothermal, binary
Municipal solid waste
Municipal solid waste
Hydro
Hydroelectric
Pumped storage
28
50
50
50
500
250
NA
NA
18,000
NA
NA
www.powermag.com
$5,578
$4,141
$8,232
$3,076
$5,595
$84.27
$84.27
$373.76
$13.44
$13.03
$9.64
$9.64
$8.33
$0.00
$0.00
NA
132
210
53
NA
POWER | January 2011
650
1,300
650
1,300
600
1,200
520
540
400
340
85
210
10
2,236
20
50
100
400
100
7
150
8,800
8,800
12,000
12,000
8,700
8,700
10,700
7,050
6,430
7,525
10,850
9,750
9,750
NA
12,350
13,500
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
$3,167
$2,844
$5,099
$4,579
$3,565
$3,221
$5,348
$978
$1,003
$2,060
$974
$665
$6,835
$5,335
$7,894
$3,860
$2,438
$5,975
$4,692
$6,050
$4,755
$35.97
$29.67
$76.62
$63.21
$59.23
$48.90
$69.30
$14.39
$14.62
$30.25
$6.98
$6.70
$350.00
$88.75
$338.79
$100.50
$28.07
$53.33
$6,400.00
$26.04
$16.70
$4.25
$4.25
$9.05
$9.05
$6.87
$6.87
$8.04
$3.43
$3.11
$6.45
$14.70
$9.87
$0.00
$2.04
$16.64
$5.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
NA
25
NA
NA
NA
23
39
-3
1
NA
39
22
37
NA
-2
21
49
-10
NA
-25
Heat rate
(Btu/kWh)
Overnight
capital cost
(2011 $/kW)
fore, the overnight cost of a plant does not
include financing and related costs.
According to the report; " The cost estimates
for each technology were developed for
a generic facility of a specific size and configuration,
and assuming a location without
unusual constraints or infrastructure needs. "
The calculated construction costs are staggering,
as are the yearly increases. The data
in the following table were summarized from
tables in that report. For example, nuclear
plant overnight construction cost are expected
to increase 37% from 2010 to 2011 while
the cost for solar thermal large photovoltaic
systems is expected to drop by 10% and 25%
respectively. Gas-fired combined-cycle plant
construction cost remain fairly flat. Onshore
and offshore wind projects will increase by
21% and almost 49% respectively, although
the cost history for offshore projects is based
on European projects. Likewise, geothermal
project cost estimates were up over 132%
from a year earlier. The 189-page report is
available on the EIA website.
Construction costs of new power generation projects are expected to rise sharply over the next year.
Source: Energy Information Administration
Plant costs
Fixed O&M cost
(2011 $/kW)
Variable
O&M cost
(2011 $/kWh)
Increase in
overnight capital
cost from 2010 (%)
http://www.powermag.com
POWER January 2011

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