POWER January 2022 - 8

GLOBAL MONITOR
THE BIG PICTURE: World Generation Outlook
The International Energy Agency's (IEA's) World Energy Outlook 2021, released just before the COP 26 climate conference
in Glasgow last November, provides some insight into how it expects some countries' power profiles will shift over the
next three decades. Of specific note is that even under its most stringent scenario, the world will likely still have some
fossil generation, albeit on a much smaller scale compared to renewable generation. Source: Based on IEA data from the
World Energy Outlook 2021 (revised version, October 2021), www.iea.org/statistics, all rights reserved; as modified by POWER
magazine.
-Sonal Patel is a POWER senior associate editor.
ALL GENERATION (TWh): 2010-2050
Region
Africa
Southeast Asia
Middle East
India
Russia
Central and S. America
Japan
Other
Europe
China
U.S.
0K
2K
2010
COAL (TWh)
NATURAL GAS (TWh)
0K 2K
4K
2010
6K
8K
0K
2K
2010
NUCLEAR (TWh)
0K
1K
2010
RENEWABLES (TWh)
0K 1K
2K
2010
WIND (TWh)
100
200
2010
SOLAR (TWh)
10
20
2010
30
200
400
2020
600
800 0K
1K
2K
2030
3K
0K
5K
10K
2050
15K
300
500
1000
2020
1500 0K 1K
2K
2030
3K
4K 0K
5K
10K
2050
15K
3K
4K
0K
2K
4K
2020
6K
0K
5K
2030
10K
0K
20K
2050
40K
2K
0K
1K
2020
2K
0K
1K
2K
2030
3K
0K
2K
2050
4K
4K
0K 2K
4K
6K
2020
8K
0K 2K
4K
2030
6K
8K
500
2050
1000
4K
0K 2K
4K 6K 8K
2020
0K
5K
2030
10K 0K 5K
10K 15K
2050
0K
2K
4K
2020
6K
0K
2K
4K
2030
6K
0K
1K
2050
2K
The 2050 figures, shaded
here in beige, use IEA
modeling under its
Sustainable Development
Scenario (SDS), which
explores a pathway to
reductions of " well below 2
degrees Celsius " and
represents a gateway to
achieving the outcomes
targeted by the Paris
Agreement. The SDS assumes
" all energy-related
sustainable development
goals are met, all current
net-zero pledges are
achieved in full, and there are
increased efforts to realize
near-term emissions
reductions. " The SDS,
notably, assumes advanced
economies will reach
net-zero emissions by 2050,
China around 2060, and all
other countries by 2070 " at
the latest. " Figures for 2010,
2020, and 2030 are modeled
under the IEA's Stated
Policies Scenario (STEPS),
which explores where energy
systems might go without
further policy intervention.
Region
Africa
Central and S. America
China
Europe
India
Japan
Middle East
Other
Russia
Southeast Asia
U.S.
8
www.powermag.com
POWER | January 2022

https://www.iea.org/statistics http://www.powermag.com

POWER January 2022

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