POWER January 2023 - 22

NUCLEAR
Being Pro-Nuclear Won't Be
Enough-Here's Why
Nuclear energy-not just nuclear power-is seeing a burst of innovation unlike anything
seen since the 1950s. While the strong momentum for the dispatchable zero-carbon
energy source is promising, prominent pitfalls threaten necessary progress.
Sonal Patel
hile the nuclear industry has
sought acceptance by climate
advocates for nearly a decade,
events over the past year appear to have
buoyed nuclear's prospects and finally
set it afloat within discourse about decarbonization.
The dramatic shift took
shape as the energy crisis churned up
energy markets across the world and
intensified after Russia's invasion of
Ukraine. As well as forcing policymakers
to acknowledge the value of power
resource diversity for energy security, it
has highlighted an especially more forceful
edge for dispatchable zero-carbon
energy sources as the world sets out to
meet ambitious climate policy goals. But
the ongoing crisis has also underscored
the urgency at which the world must
achieve its rapid transition.
An increasing number of energy leaders
have conceded that these attributes
cannot be fulfilled without nuclear energy.
While Dr. Fatih Birol, executive director
of the International Energy Agency
(IEA), in May heralded only the possibility
that nuclear was poised for an expansion,
in November he declared, " Nuclear
power is making a comeback-and in a
strong fashion. "
A Steep Ascent
Signals about nuclear's potentially strong
momentum reflect a deep relief for the
nuclear industry, which only two years
ago lamented nuclear power's diminishing
share of global generation. The International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in
a September 2022 report noted nuclear's
share of the world's total generation at
the end of 2021 stood at 9.8%-a steep
decline compared to nuclear's share of
18% in the late 1990s. And while the
world's operational 422 nuclear power
reactors-a total net power capacity of
378 GWe-exceeded the total combined
contribution of wind and solar PV worldwide,
two out of every three operational
reactors was more than 30 years old. The
22
W
1. About 57 reactors were under construction in November 2022, a combined capacity of 59
GW. Most were in China, which is currently building 16.1 GW. South Korea is building 5.6 GW,
while Turkey (4.4 GW), India (4.2 GW), Russia (3.8 GW), and the UK (3.3 GW) are other countries
near the top of the list. Courtesy: World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2022 (WNISR)
IAEA has warned that retirements are
set to accelerate in the coming years, estimating
that between 8% to 18% of the
existing fleet could be retired by 2030
as reactors approach the end of their
licensed timeframes, or are forced to
close owing to policy-driven phaseouts
and economic challenges.
The IAEA, however, remains optimistic
that nuclear capacity will expand during
the coming decades. For the second
successive year, the agency revised up
its annual projections, estimating a nuclear
power production increase of between
12% to 40% between 2021 and
2030-and between 29% and 250% by
2050. The stark gaps are rooted in assumptions
in the agency's " low " and
" high " cases. While each case considers
" uncertainties inherent in projecting
trends, " the low " conservative " case
assumes that current market technology
and resource trends will continue,
and few changes occur on the nuclear
legal, policy, and regulatory landscape.
The high case, while " ambitious, " reflects
" plausible and technically feasible "
projections that are based on " the expressed
intentions " by countries that
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have contemplated expanding their use
of nuclear power.
A specific point the agency hammers
in its report is that nuclear capacity additions,
which last peaked in the 1980s, are
beginning to see a revival. By 2050, the
low case projects only a slight increase
of about 404 GWe above the world's current
378-GWe capacity, while the high
case projects a virtual doubling to 873
GWe. As of November 2022, however,
only 57 reactors with a total capacity of
59 GWe were under construction (Figure
1). That's far from enough to keep
the Paris Agreement 1.5-degree target
within reach in a cost-effective and socially
equitable manner, said Sama Bilbao
y León, director general of the World
Nuclear Association. " We urgently need
significantly more nuclear energy new
build rates, " she said. " We need to ramp
up to 50 GW per year over the next 10
years and keep up, acting until 2050. "
Optimism Rooted in Policy Boosts
For now, at least, government support
has been pivotal in fueling tangible prospects
for new nuclear. In the U.S., where
the federal government is spearheading
POWER | January 2023

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POWER January 2023

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