POWER July 2010 - 67

ELECTRIC POWER 2010: WHERE THE GENCOS MEET
A Slow Slog Ahead for U.S. Nukes
There is a certain tentativeness about new nuclear power in the U.S. these
days, a low-grade anxiety, as demonstrated by the comments made by
electric utility representatives at May's ELECTRIC POWER Conference
in Baltimore.
By Kennedy Maize
O
ne rarely hears the words " nuclear renaissance "
anymore. When the phrase
appears, it is often with an ironic twist.
Gone is the heady optimism of the first few
years after a Republican Congress passed
and a Republican president signed the 2005
Energy Policy Act.
From Sprint to Crawl
The walk in the nuclear park envisioned by
the enthusiasts for a revival has turned into a
long, difficult slog. Once, folks talked about
maybe 30 new reactors, following a jumpstart
provided by federal loan guarantees
for as many as eight plants. More recently,
some Republican enthusiasts, seeking a political
wedge issue to use against the Democratic
administration in Washington, called
for 100 new nukes in the U.S. Now it looks
unlikely that federal largess will bolster the
prospects for more than maybe two new
plants by 2017. At most.
The one federal " award " of a loan guarantee,
some $8.3 billion to Atlanta-based
Southern Company for two new units at
its existing Vogtle site in Georgia, so far
represents less than meets even the most
optimistic eye. But no actual award has yet
been made. The utility continues in longrunning
negotiations with the Department
of Energy (DOE) over a final deal,
as Southern Company executive Michael
Smith made clear at the opening panel of
the nuclear track in Baltimore, curiously
titled " Shovel Ready. "
Neither Southern nor the DOE will discuss
the negotiations, but the DOE on the
day of the panel extended the deadline for
a deal by another 30 days.
Southern's Smith told reporters that his
company definitely would go it alone on
new units at Vogtle if the DOE loan guarantee
falls through. Was he being candid?
Who knows? It may have been a negotiating
ploy. It may reflect company policy.
The most peculiar aspect of the " Shovel
Ready " panel was that no new plants are
truly shovel ready. The Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) has not signed off on
a full range of advanced reactor designs.
None of the companies or utilities involved
July 2010 | POWER
(the Tennessee Valley Authority, Unistar,
Luminant, and Southern Company) has
full NRC approval. Nor do they have the
money in hand, as estimates for the cost
of new units continue to skyrocket, now in
the range of $7 billion per unit. One attendee
leaned to a reporter during the session
and whispered, " Shouldn't they have
had a question mark for the panel's title? "
Maximizing Existing Nuclear
Plants' Output
Though no spades of dirt have turned on
new nuclear power plant projects in the
U.S. in decades, the contribution of the
atom to U.S. power supplies continues to
grow. That was the theme of the " Maximizing
the Value of Nuclear Assets " session.
How could this be?
One part of the answer is planned plant
upratings, which add usable new capacity
to existing power reactors. Exelon, owner
of the nation's largest nuclear generating
fleet, plans to add 1,500 MW in uprated
capacity by 2017. By 2017, said Exelon's
Sharon Eldridge, uprating activities will
have " touched all of our units in one way
or another. "
Nationwide, according to industry figures,
some 3,500 MW of new nuclear capacity
will appear in the U.S. in the same
time frame through plant uprates. " We are
getting more MW from existing power
plants, " Eldridge said. " That comes through
new technologies and materials and half a
century of operating experience. " Exelon
added 60 MW in new nuclear capacity in
2009 and has added another 50 MW so far
this year.
Plant uprating is also a path to lower
production costs, noted Eldridge, yielding
lower costs per MW of generated electricity.
That's because the uprated plants require
no additional operating personnel,
and newer equipment means lower maintenance
costs. So there is no overall increase
in operating and maintenance expenses.
Big Plans for Small Nukes
As new, big iron looks increasingly problematical,
many in the nuclear industry are
www.powermag.com
Banking on modular. Program Manager
John Ferrara explained that Babcock & Wilcox
is targeting the U.S. market with its small,
modular mPower reactor, which it hopes to
deploy by 2020. Source: POWER
reviving a long-standing interest in small
and modular plants. The session on smaller
reactors had a standing-room-only crowd.
The reasoning for the interest in little
machines is straightforward: Smaller plants
require less money up front and, presumably,
enable faster in-service (meaning inthe-money)
dates. Smaller machines also
mean spreading the risk if demand does
not materialize soon enough to justify
gigawatt and larger investments.
It is clearly serious business. Several
global companies are working on small,
modular reactors, and the DOE is putting
resources into the concept. The DOE's
main R&D thrust is the Gen IV program of
new, large reactors, but the shop is looking
at smaller, modular units, aimed mainly at
export markets. Enough serious players in
this market mean that smaller, more quickly
deployable units will get a thorough
vetting. Their success in the market is far
from assured, however.
67
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POWER July 2010

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