POWER July 2011 - 22

January 1, 2011). But consumers are getting the message and
responding to it. The option of choice has not been covered by
the media as broadly in Chicago as in Philadelphia.
Axford: If Pennsylvania is the next Texas and Illinois is the
next Pennsylvania, where is the next big market for competitive
retail power?
Tonge: Certainly, Florida would be of great interest to Spark
Energy if it were to open up. They have a large population and
larger-than-average consumption of electricity. It is interesting
to note that Florida's largest incumbent utility (NextEra) has a
subsidiary (Gexa) that is aggressively seeking customers in Texas
and other states open to competition. Based on some of the
comments I heard at the KEMA conference, I asked our regulatory
team look into both Florida and Arizona. If I was a regulator in
another state looking at how to get competitive markets moving,
I would look at Pennsylvania as the example.
-Mark Axford is the principal of Axford Consultants LP and a
POWER contributing editor.
Predictive Maintenance That Works
In the April " Focus on O&M, " we began a series of articles on
predictive maintenance (PdM), also known as condition-based
maintenance. In that article we introduce PdM as a process where
maintenance is performed based on the condition of the equipment
rather than on a predetermined interval. We also discussed
how a well-oiled PdM program requires an upfront investment in
equipment and in the training of technicians in order to reap later
benefits. The costs and benefits were also discussed in detail.
Given the extremely high cost of an outage in lost energy sales,
plus the high cost of replacement power purchases, the cost of a
PdM program often is justified solely based on the expected plant
reliability improvement.
This installment of the series continues our review of different
conditioning-monitoring techniques commonly in use at power
plants using any generation technology. In the May issue we began
exploring specific PdM techniques with an examination of
electrical surge comparison and motor-current signature analysis.
The equipment and techniques discussed are certainly not
comprehensive, as new and improved methods and equipment are
routinely introduced. We are discussing PdM programs that could
be likened to a " basic load " of ammunition, food, and protective
equipment for a soldier. You can always carry more, but the basics
are sufficient for most missions.
For example, one major element of any robust PdM program is
nondestructive testing (NDT) technologies. Within the category
of NDT are a number of specific testing approaches used in the
plant such a lube oil analysis, thermographic analysis, shockpulse
measurements, ultrasonic analysis, wear-particle analysis,
and vibration analysis, to name a few. In this article we begin
our discussion of the elements of NDT with a look at the most
important aspects of a high-quality oil analysis program.
Routinely Analyze Your Oil
Oil analysis identifies the condition of fluids and lubricants and
determines if they are suitable for continued use or should be
changed. It also indicates the condition of internal, oil-wetted
components, identifying excessive wear. Generally speaking, routine
oil analysis will find active machine wear. Oil analysis also
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POWER July 2011

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