POWER June 2012 - 10

Denmark, a country that has been a strong global advocate
for climate change mitigation measures, has had a long history
of consensus-based policy making and political stability
that has allowed it to adopt such ambitious goals.
The measure would prepare Denmark for an energy future in
which prices are bound to surge for oil and gas, said Danish
minister for climate, energy, and building, Martin Lidegaard.
Denmark already has the highest electricity prices in Europe,
and this latest measure would require 5.6 billion crowns ($1
billion) of additional spending by 2020, according to government
estimates.
Denmark's vision for a low-carbon future is commendable, but
wrought with challenges, said the International Energy Agency's
executive director, Maria van der Hoeven. Integrating large volumes
of variable electricity supply would require a large reconfiguration
of the electricity network within Denmark and elsewhere.
Denmark is well-connected with its neighbors, she said, but more
investment in interconnectors will be needed.
Ensuring reliability would also be difficult. Denmark already
sources a fifth of its power from wind turbines, but it has virtually
no hydropower or nuclear plants, and it is still heavily dependent
on coal-fired generation. Denmark's total installed capacity
in 2009 was 12,808 MW, about 9,316 MW of which was fossil fuel
capacity. Wind power contributed 3,482 MW in 2009. The new
energy strategy calls for wind power to account for 50% of power
consumption, compared to the current 25%. This will require installation
of 15,000 MW of new offshore wind.
According to the Danish Energy Association's Lars Aagaard,
the " real " challenge of achieving the " extremely ambitious
target " will be " to use the fluctuating electricity in such a
way we will get a maximum of benefits from it. We will need
to introduce big heat pumps in the district heating system-
replacing coal, gas and biomass. We will also need plans for
converting individual heating from oil- and gas fired boilers
to heat pumps and for using electricity to power cars. And
then we will need to have much more capacity in transmission
lines to the rest of Europe, including new transmission lines
to e.g. the UK. "
2. Taking the dilemma by the horns. Denmark's parliament
recently approved an energy strategy that would require 100% of the
country's power to be produced by renewables. Meeting that goal will
be challenging, analysts note, because Denmark currently generates
44% of its power from coal-fired plants. This image shows DONG Energy's
Avedøre Wind Farm, just outside Copenhagen, which is located
next to the 250-MW Avedøre power station's coal-fired Unit 1. Courtesy:
DONG Energy
Switzerland Contemplates Filling Future
Nuclear Energy Gap
A model of Switzerland's energy future to 2050 that abides with
the country's post-Fukushima decision not to build any new
nuclear power plants suggests the phase-out could cost nearly
$33 billion. But that number is less than expected, and the
closure of the country's five nuclear reactors-40% of its total
generation-by 2034 " is feasible and its economic impact will
be limited, " said Switzerland's Department of the Environment,
Transport, Energy, and Communications (DETEC).
The agency created the model to be used in formulating the
country's new energy policy through 2050. In its analysis, DETEC
also found that the phase-out would not impact overall final
energy consumption and electricity before 2020, but that total
electricity consumption must decrease by 21 TWh between now
and 2050. Switzerland would also need to increase generation
from renewable sources as well as build new combined heat and
power facilities and gas-fired combined cycle plants. Switzerland
will still be able to achieve its European Union-mandated target
cuts for carbon dioxide by 2020 if it increases its carbon tax. DETEC's
conclusions will be incorporated into a bill later this year.
About 41% of Switzerland's overall power production in 2011
(a total of 62.9 billion kWh) came from its nuclear plants. Hydropower
plants contributed 53.7%, followed by conventional thermal
and other power plants (5.6%). The first reactor that could
be taken offline would be the Beznau 1 in 2019, followed by
Beznau 2 in 2021. The remaining three-the 372-MW Mühleberg,
985-MW Gösgen, and 1,190-MW Leibstadt-would be shuttered
between 2029 and 2034.
Analysts note that DETEC's estimates are much lower than expected.
Think tank Schweizerische Energie-Stiftung, for example,
suggested that replacing the reactors could cost at least $105
billion. Other observers predict that related increases in electricity
prices will yield overall drops in the country's gross domestic
product.
3. Facing closure. Switzerland's decision to phase out nuclear
power by 2050 would mean the 1984-built Leibstadt nuclear power station
could be shuttered by 2034. Alpiq's 1,190-MW plant in Leibstadt
produces a sixth of Switzerland's power. Courtesy: Alpiq
10
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