POWER June 2012 - 63

RESOURCE PLANNING
the House of Representatives and House
of Councilors in 2009 loosened the country's
political standpoint, but the " ancient
regime " remains, and resists change, with
many LDP members of parliament representing
the vested interests of particular
industrial sectors.
This is not to say that DPJ members
haven't pushed their own agendas. From his
election as prime minister in June 2010 until
his resignation in August 2011, long-time
alternative energy backer Naoto Kan pushed
for renewables to become a main pillar of Japan's
energy policy. The move was fiercely
criticized: Even before the quake, the DPJ
was facing serious problems relating to the
country's economy. Japan has a rapidly aging
society, an export-hindering strong yen,
and the highest public debt per capita of any
major economy. Post-quake, the embattled
party is tasked with expensive cleanup and
reconstruction efforts. In his inauguration
speech last September, Kan's successor,
Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who is also
a DPJ member, called for a gradual, longterm
phase-out of nuclear energy.
" It is easy to argue for a move away from
nuclear power, " Tadashi Maeda, an executive
for the Japan Bank of International CoDresser-Rand
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operation and special adviser to the Cabinet
on energy matters, told the Asahi Shimbun
newspaper in April. Maeda has been cited as
a likely key figure in the shaping of Japan's
future nuclear energy policy-but it is clear
that his stance may not mesh with that of
other DPJ members. " However, even if all 54
nuclear reactors in Japan stopped operations,
nuclear fuel rods would still be in place and
spent nuclear fuel will also remain. How will
those be removed safely and where would the
fuel be stored temporarily before final processing? "
he asked rhetorically.
Maeda also pointed out that Japan could
see a brain drain to nations such as China
and India that are forging ahead with ambitious
plans to expand nuclear capacity.
Maeda, and Harufumi Mochizuki, another
Cabinet adviser and former vice minister
of economy, trade, and industry, have been
pushing the government to support nuclear
infrastructure exports. The " growing move
abroad to construct nuclear plants " will
not peter out, Maeda noted. Even though
Japan may decrease its own reliance on
nuclear power, if an accident were to occur
in neighboring nations, Japan wouldn't
be safe. " For that reason, there is nothing
strange about having foreign nations employ
the technology of Japan that has experienced
the accident and strengthened
safety measures, " he said.
Some things are certain to change. Prior
to March 11, 2011, the Japanese government
and electric utilities dealt with local skepticism
about nuclear plants by granting subsidies
to host communities, for example. Such
actions would be hotly contested today.
Ultimately, the interplay of politics and
economics could decide the fate of nuclear
power in Japan. " Regulatory uncertainty
is pervasive. Financial markets are uneasy.
And energy development remains
subdued as investors await a clear political
decision. If the next 12 months unleash
economic havoc by forcing businesses to
curtail operations or face the spillover effects,
it may be that public opinion will
favor the reopening of closed nuclear facilities, "
Robert Dujarric, director of the
Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies,
Temple University Japan, said in a recent
commentary in the Asahi Shimbun. Dujarric
pointed out, however, that it was possible
that public stance could harden " if
it turns out that the country can somehow
'muddle through' without them. " ■
-Sonal Patel is POWER's senior writer.
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POWER June 2012

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