POWER May 2012 - 50

FOSSIL FUELS
3. Moving to gas. The 1,960-MW Didcot
coal-fired power plant in the UK dates from the
late 1960s. Now converted to cofire gas and
a small amount of biomass, it operates infrequently
because of the limit on operating hours
imposed by the Large Combustion Plant Directive.
Operator RWE npower is due to close the
plant by the end of 2015. A 1,360-MW gas-fired
combined cycle plant on the same site will continue
to operate. Source: Nufkin/Flickr
close in March 2013, and it is not clear that
all of the remaining four plants will stay operational
until the December 2015 deadline
(Figure 3). One of the original coal plants
(Tilbury) has since converted to 100% biomass,
though it is still due to close as a result
of the LCPD.
On top of this loss of coal capacity, the
closure of nuclear and gas-fired plants will
put Britain's energy security at risk, many
experts believe.
Government reluctance to plan for replacement
of the UK's aging nuclear fleet
will mean the loss of seven plants by 2020. A
new reactor at the existing Hinkley Point site
is now being discussed, but it is unlikely to be
online before 2020, and the degree of public
opposition suggests that overall nuclear capacity
will fall.
Even gas-fired generation is struggling in
Because the 20,000 hours allowed by
the LCPD opt-out represent less than three
years' continuous operation over the eight
years from 2008 to 2015, operators have been
managing their old coal plants carefully, but
the end is now in sight.
In the UK, an exceptionally cold winter in
2010-11 put coal plants under heavy load. In
March, operators E.ON and ScottishPower
announced that two UK opt-out plants will
the UK. In March, energy company Centrica
announced that it will close combined cycle
gas turbine plants at King's Lynn and Barry
because they are not profitable. Even the new
London Array offshore wind farm, with its
record 1 GW installed capacity, will barely
offset the loss of the 325-MW King's Lynn
plant.
Sam Laidlaw, chief executive of Centrica,
told the Daily Telegraph newspaper
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in February: " It is vital that the Government
provides the clarity and assurance that will
be needed if the industry is to step up and
deliver the massive investment-an estimated
£200 billion in total by 2020-that the
country requires. "
Consultancy Frost & Sullivan is less pessimistic
about a UK energy gap. In a study
published in March, the firm's Jonathan
Robinson pointed out that UK electricity demand
fell by 3.4% in 2011 and that industrial
demand fell by 4.1%. The firm suggests
that while light industry has seen modest recovery
from the recession, energy-intensive
industries such as chemicals and steel are
continuing to suffer from UK power prices
that are high compared with those in many
other European countries.
This fall in demand is one reason why
Frost & Sullivan believes a UK capacity
crunch in 2015-16 is unlikely. Around 1.5
GW of gas capacity was added in 2011, an
additional 5.5 GW is under construction, the
firm says, and 7 GW of new wind capacity
will be online by 2015.
Also acting to damp down prospects for
new UK coal plants is their lack of popularity
with green-minded British citizens. A
prime example is the ill-fated Kingsnorth site
in the county of Kent, where operator E.ON
proposed to build a 1,600-MW supercritical
plant-the UK's first new coal generation in
three decades-to replace the existing plant,
which will close by 2015.
Despite the fact that the new Kingsnorth
plant was to feature demonstration-scale
CCS, the site was the focus of sustained
protests by environmentalists. In October
2010, E.ON announced it was abandoning
the project.
Not unreasonably, the green movement
fears that after permits have been awarded to
new coal plants, any requirements to include
CCS will later be dropped on grounds of cost.
The only other UK demonstration-scale CCS
project at the time, at Longannet in Scotland,
collapsed a year later.
Beyond Ultrasupercritical
If Europe's short-term coal boom does materialize,
as ecoprog has forecast, what kind of
plants will it produce?
Next year is scheduled to see the openvisit
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ing of the Trianel coal power plant in Lünen,
Germany. With a forecast 46% efficiency, the
€1.4 billion (US$1.9 billion) project will be
one of the world's most advanced conventional
coal plants.
But European power companies and technology
suppliers are aiming higher, with
several research and development projects
shooting for 50% efficiency through steam
conditions of 700C and 350 bar.

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POWER May 2012

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of POWER May 2012