POWER May 2013 - 30

ENERGY POLICY
than there might be in a locale like Hawaii
or Germany, where retail prices are comparatively
higher.
Ontario is a North American smart grid
leader and has installed smart meters in a
majority of homes and small businesses,
which has enabled it to introduce automatic
TOU rates that encourage peak load-shifting.
(Residential and small business customers
also have the option of fixed rate contracts by
purchasing electricity from licensed energy
retailers.) Both large and small customers
can participate in DSM programs; large customers
can participate in both voluntary and
contractual demand response programs.
The goal is to reduce peak demand 6,300
MW by 2025 and 7,100 MW by 2030, and
the province says it is on target to hit those
numbers. It also claims that " Over the next
20 years, Ontario's conservation targets and
initiatives are projected to save about $27
billion in ratepayer costs on the basis of a
$12 billion investment. " When asked about
the amount of last year's peak load reduction
made possible by smart meters and TOU
rates, the OEB responded that those numbers
were not yet available.
Fuel-Switching. A primary concern of any
grid operator is the availability of dispatchable
generation, so it's no surprise that rather than
simply shutter all coal plants within a decade,
Ontario has explored fuel-switching.
In October 2012, work began on converting
the Atikokan Generating Station
from a coal-burning plant to a 200-MW one
equipped to burn 100% biomass-the first in
North America. That project is scheduled for
completion in 2014.
The province's Long-Term Energy Plan
calls for converting two units at the Thunder
Bay Generating Station to natural gas
to ensure system reliability in northwestern
Ontario, " particularly during periods
of low hydroelectricity generation and
until the proposed enhancement to the
East-West tie enters operation. " The plan
also considers conversion of some units at
Nanticoke and Lambton to natural gas, " if
necessary for system reliability. " As of this
writing, no decision had been made to begin
these conversions.
Swift Solar Development. Despite
the red tape and interconnection difficulties
encountered by several privately
owned micro-generation projects, Ontario
has managed to substantially increase the
amount of new non-hydro renewables.
Among the solar power projects developed
since the decision to phase out coal
is the 80-MW Sarnia Photovoltaic Plant,
which was the world's largest when it went
online in 2010. (This plant was a POWER
Top Plant Award winner in the renewables
30
category in 2011. See " Sarnia Solar Project "
in our December 2011 issue.) An October
2012 government statement noted that
the province is home to the 25 largest solar
projects in the country and has more than
550 MW of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity
online and more than 1,800 MW of additional
solar PV capacity under contract.
Even with these new developments, solar
(in the " Other " category) is practically invisible
in the chart of energy output by fuel
source in 2012 (Figure 1).
Increasing Wind Generation. According
to the Ministry of Energy, Ontario's
grid-connected wind capacity was 15
MW in 2003. At the end of 2012 it was
over 1,500 MW. Some stories earlier this
year trumpeted the role of wind power
in making the coal phaseout achievable,
noting that in 2012, wind generated more
power (3%) than coal (2.8%). Given that
the province had 25% coal generation in
2002, when the IESO market opened, and
that wind at the end of 2012 supplied 3%
of Ontario's generation (roughly the same
as wind power's contribution in the U.S.
overall), such claims seem overstated.
As in other places, wind power has its
vocal opponents in Ontario, some of whom
did more than voice opposition to a turbine
under construction at the 124-MW Summerhaven
project in mid-January, when
they painted graffiti on a disassembled
tower and blades, and damaged a turbine
that was set on fire, according to news
reports citing a release by the Ontario
Provincial Police. Earlier protests had occurred
because an as-yet-unoccupied eagle
nest had been removed to enable building
of an access road.
Holding Hydro Steady. Hydroelectric
generation supplies roughly 26% of
Ontario's power. (Neighboring provinces
Manitoba and Quebec are almost totally
hydropowered.) Hydro capacity increases
have been marginal, growing from a total
of 8,100 MW in 2005 to 8,400 MW in
2012 and 8,900 MW (projected) by 2015,
according to the OPA.
Powering Up Nuclear. Nuclear power
supplies more than 50% of Ontario's electricity.
OPG owns and operates the Pickering
and Darlington Nuclear Power Stations,
which have a combined generating capacity
of about 6,600 MW. (See the story on
p. 54 in this issue about plans for new units
at Darlington.) OPA also owns the Bruce
Nuclear Generating Station, which Bruce
Power operates under a lease agreement.
The Bruce station, the largest nuclear facility
in the world, has eight operating units
totaling 6,300 MW and supplies roughly a
quarter of the province's power.
www.powermag.com
OPA data show nuclear supplying 79
TWh in 2005, 85 TWh in 2012, and 93
TWh (projected) in 2015. Interestingly, the
Long-Term Energy Plan projects nuclear
power, which supplied 56% of all generation
in 2012, supplying only 46% of total
generation by 2030.
Filling the Narrowing Gaps with
Gas. Ontario has limited natural gas reserves,
so it imports most of the fuel
from Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British
Columbia. Despite the availability of Canadian
gas, and in contrast to projections
of increasing gas-fired generation south
of the border, OPA actually projects that
gas-fired generation will drop in the next
few years. Though gas-fired generation
supplied 12 TWh in 2005 and 22 TWh in
2012, it is expected to supply only 9 TWh
in 2015. The drop in gas generation is expected
to be offset by increases in nuclear,
hydro, and the nonhydro renewables mentioned
above.
Early Results from a Coal-Free Grid
Although the province isn't 100% coal-free
yet, it's close enough to make some preliminary
assessments of the results. The government's
January 2013 announcement noted
that, according to a 2005 independent study,
" Cost Benefit Analysis: Replacing Ontario's
Coal-Fired Electricity Generation, " phasing
out coal-fired generation is expected to save
the province " approximately $4.4 billion
annually when health and environmental
costs are taken into consideration. " Though
such assessments may be open to debate,
it is possible to evaluate other early results
more squarely.
On the Grid and Fuel Mix. In September
2012, the IESO said the supply outlook
was good at least through 2014: " Over the
next 18 months, more than 3,000 mega1.
Energy output by fuel type,
2012. For the first time in the province's history,
wind generation exceeded coal generation
in 2012. Source: IESO
Other, 0.8%
Wind, 3.0%
Coal, 2.8%
Gas, 14.6%
Hydro, 22.3%
Nuclear, 56.4%
POWER | May 2013
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POWER May 2013

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