POWER October 2021 - 6

SPEAKING OF POWER
Getting to Net-Zero GHG
Emissions Will Take More
Than Closing Coal Plants
Aaron Larson
T
he UK will host the 26th UN Climate
Change Conference of the Parties
(COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland,
next month. The roughly two-week-long
event will bring together delegates from
around the world with a goal of securing
global net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions by 2050, among other things.
To reach that target, organizers have said
countries need to " accelerate the phaseout
of coal, curtail deforestation, speed
up the switch to electric vehicles, [and]
encourage investment in renewables. "
However, it's worth noting that achieving
all of those aims will still not get the
world to net-zero. There are " hard-to-reach
emissions " that would still need to be addressed
to realize the ultimate COP26 goal.
The Final 25%
Electricity, transport, and heating account
for about 80% of GHG emissions, and
most countries are focusing on these
sectors in their efforts to achieve net-zero
goals. Obviously, that's good-you should
always target the low-hanging fruit first-
but reaching net-zero means dealing with
the other 20% of emissions also. Sectors
such as agriculture, plastics, cement, and
waste can't be overlooked, and reducing
emissions in those industries could be
even more difficult than in the larger-GHGemitting
sectors. Furthermore, some experts
believe we must extract at least an
extra 5% of CO2
emissions from the atmosphere
to account for emissions that
we simply cannot cut. Together, this is
known as " the final 25%. "
Oxford University, which has been
ranked #1 in the Times Higher Education
World University Rankings for the last five
years ahead of such renowned U.S. institutions
as Stanford, Harvard, and MIT, has
said, " Net Zero cannot be achieved without
tackling this hard-to-reach wedge. " On
August 5, Oxford's Smith School of Enterprise
and the Environment published
findings from its " Final 25% " project. The
project called on the expertise of " leading
industry, investor, academic, civil society
and policy minds to lay out roadmaps of
investment to give us a fighting chance of
6
meeting Net Zero with technology. " The
findings are contained in three keynote
reports covering: the use of polymers;
nature-based solutions for GHG removal;
and alternative proteins.
In a press release issued in conjunction
with the findings, Dr. Katherine Collett,
lead author of the three reports, said,
" Mitigating climate change demands
more than a shift to renewable electricity
generation; investment in harder-to-abate
sectors is already required. To reach Net
Zero, intersections between plastics, proteins
and plants, three seemingly unconnected
systems, may hold the key. Our
reports explore the potential of these systems
in detail, pointing the way forward
for research, policy development, regulation,
and financing options. "
Changing Eating Habits
and Agriculture
In one of the reports, the Oxford researchers
said food production directly
and indirectly accounts for more than
26% of GHG emissions annually (aggregating
emissions of different gases
using the 100-year Global Warming Potential).
The report specifically notes
that animal products account for almost
60% of food-related emissions, or 16%
of annual global GHG emissions. It says,
" Plausible projections suggest the demand
for animal products will increase a
further 35% by 2050, " driven in large part
by increased consumer wealth in emerging
economies such as India and China.
There are alternatives, however. Plantbased
proteins such as tofu, nuts, peas,
and beans can take the place of meat
in the human diet. I know this because
I've been vegan for several years and
have never felt healthier. For those who
believe they could never remove meat,
dairy, and eggs from their diet, it's not
as difficult as you may think. I found
eliminating cheese was the hardest, but
nowadays, innovative companies have
created cheese substitutes, which, although
probably not any healthier for a
person than the real thing, can help people
adjust to the change, much like a nicotine
patch helps people quit smoking.
www.powermag.com
On top of being affordable, easy to
produce, and scalable, the report says
these alternative proteins hold two major
environmental advantages compared
to animal-related products. Firstly, in a
world powered by zero-emission energy,
production of alternative, zero-emission
protein is possible. Of course, we're not
there yet. Secondly, the land no longer
needed for grazing or growing animal
feed could be ecologically restored to
provide a one-off natural CO2
sink, offering
much-needed GHG removal services.
" A substantial 82% of agricultural land
is currently used to produce animal-related
products, " the report claims. " If alternative
proteins displaced all animal-related products
(clearly a theoretical maximum), the
overall potential for the released agricultural
land to sequester CO2
gatonnes] CO2
could be 900 Gt [Giover
100 years, after which
sequestration rates would decrease. "
To put that in perspective, the Environmental
Protection Agency reports that U.S.
GHG emissions from all sources (including
from the big contributors-electricity, transport,
and heating) totaled 6.558 Gt of CO2
equivalents in 2019. Therefore, the released
agricultural land could sequester all of that
and more (on an annual average basis).
Now, imagine if the CO2
emissions from
the " Big Three " are cut dramatically-the
world could even end up net-negative.
Achieving a Net-Zero Future
The coal-fired power industry has long
been the whipping boy for environmental
activists. Indeed, in the foreword to
" COP26 Explained, " a 25-page document
designed to prepare people for the
Glasgow event, Alok Sharma, COP president-designate,
bragged: " In 2012, 40%
of our [the UK's] electricity came from
coal. That figure is now less than 2%. " He
continued, " We will completely phase out
coal power by 2024 and will end the sale
of new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030. "
Yet, focusing on coal and other fossil
fuels is not enough. World leaders must
also work to mitigate " the final 25%. " It's
the only way to reach net-zero. ■
-Aaron Larson is POWER's
executive editor.
POWER | October 2021
http://www.powermag.com
POWER October 2021

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