POWER September 2012 - 6

SPEAKING OF POWER
Perception Is Not a Science
I
s your summer warmer than normal,
or did your winter seem colder than in
the past? We may perceive changes in
weather patterns and draw conclusions,
but personal experience is of limited value
in science. It's all about the data.
Dr. James Hansen, a senior NASA scientist
and long-time global warming apologist,
first achieved notoriety when he
testified before Congress in 1988 about
what he described as the catastrophic
effects of anthropogenic climate change
expected within the next 20 years. His
testimony was based on computer projections
using atmospheric concentrations of
CO2 to determine ambient temperatures.
In retrospect, his predictions were wildly
exaggerated.
Failed Logic Leap
Hansen has since slowly devolved from
space scientist into space cadet and
has become an embarrassment to NASA.
On Aug. 6, Hansen released the paper
" Perceptions of Climate Change " in the
Proceeding of the National Academy of Sciences
(PNAS). The National Academy of
Sciences continues to " peer review " his
work with a wink and a nod. The article
purports to prove that " recent heat waves
and extreme summers were likely caused
by global warming in recent high profile
heat waves, such as those in Texas and
Oklahoma in the summer of 2011. " The
data used to make the comparison and
draw conclusions is limited to June, July,
and August surface temperatures relative
to a base period of 1951-1980, a period
of relatively stable temperatures.
The analysis approach used by Hansen
was to plot temperature observations as a
bell curve, much like the sort that some
teachers use to grade student work. The
small percentage of students who earn
an A are equivalent to " extremely hot "
events. Hansen suggests that because the
number of reported temperatures over the
past 30 years fall with higher frequency in
the " extremely hot " category compared to
the base period, anthropogenic CO2 emissions
are to blame.
6
Hansen next " proves " the link between
specific weather events and global
warming in a most unscientific way, as
the title of the paper implies: the proof
is left to the reader's perception. If climate
change (average annual temperatures)
doesn't explain weather patterns,
then what else could it be? As Dr. Martin
Hoerling, a researcher with the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), noted in his review of Hansen's
paper, " Perception is not a science. "
Most appalling was Hansen's use of
" cherry picked " data that ignored temperature
data from the warmer 1930s and
the cooler 2000s that would have significantly
altered his results. The shape
of the bell curve flattens and widens
at the bottom if an entire 100 years of
temperature data are used, effectively
quashing Hansen's entire analysis. There
are many other technical gaffes in Hansen's
analysis, like simplistically equating
heat waves with droughts, but space
prevents further discussion.
Hard Data Results
Dr. John Christy, distinguished professor
of atmospheric science and director of
the Earth System Science Center at the
University of Alabama in Huntsville presented
testimony on Aug. 1 to the Senate
Environment and Public Works Committee
about extreme temperature events.
Dr. Christy's expertise is remote satellite
sensing of atmospheric temperatures.
His conclusion, when studying the entire
temperature data set, was that the data
does not prove weather is becoming less
extreme or colder but rather that " extreme
events are poor metrics to use for detecting
climate change. "
In his testimony, Dr. Christy noted that
the 1930s temperature data set has twice
as many daily maximum temperature
records as the 1980s, 1990s, or 2000s;
daily all-time high temperatures occurred
more frequently before 1940 than after
1954; and more Midwest daily maximum
temperature records were set in the heat
waves of 1911 and the 1930s (the Dust
www.powermag.com
Bowl era) than during the 2012 heat
wave. Statistically, in any 100-year period,
we should expect 10% of the worst
temperature extremes to occur during any
particular decade.
Christy also addressed other perceived
effects of climate change. For example,
the Palmer Drought Severity Index for
the continental U.S. shows considerable
interannual variability but shows no
long-term trend from 1900 to the present,
and the upper Colorado River Basin
experienced more frequent multi-decadal
droughts in the 19th, 18th, 17th, and
16th centuries than in the 20th century.
Also, NOAA's Climate Scene Investigators
concluded that recent record snowfalls
were not caused by human activity. In
fact, the historical analysis found no evidence
of any increase in snowfall.
True Motives Revealed
Hansen writes in his paper, " Although we
were motivated in this research by an objective
to expose effects of human-made
global warming as soon as possible . . . "
By his own words, Hansen has assumed
the role of activist masquerading as a scientist.
NASA continues to ignore the proclivities
of its rogue scientist and refuses
to rein him in.
One of NASA's few recent achievements
occurred during the early morning of Aug.
6, when the Mars Science Laboratory rover
Curiosity successfully descended to the
planet's surface and began sending images
back to Earth. The rover's two-year
plan includes studying the Martian climate
and geology in preparation for a future
manned mission.
Hansen carefully scripted the release
of the paper for Aug. 6 to coincide with
the nation's celebration of Curiosity's
successful landing. Bad science may be
forgivable, but I suspect Hansen's attempt
to hijack the media spotlight from
one of NASA's few recent space triumphs
is the NASA equivalent of the unpardonable
sin. ■
-Dr. Robert Peltier, PE is POWER's
editor-in-chief.
POWER | September 2012
http://www.powermag.com
POWER September 2012

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