POWER September 2023 - 30

RISK MANAGEMENT
AusNet Embraces Data-Driven
Storm Impact Modeling
Power companies must respond to outages caused by extreme weather events.
Having accurate predictions concerning the severity of impending storms can
ensure companies are prepared with the right resources on standby ready to respond
and helps them communicate restoration timelines accurately with customers.
Renny Vandewege
A
ustralian utility companies have
had more than their fair share
of weather challenges in recent
years. From flooding, to searing heat,
drought, and dangerous bushfire conditions,
extreme weather has caused utility
leaders and emergency operations
teams to actively seek better intelligence
to improve preparations for severe
weather impacts.
For Australian energy company AusNet,
the back-to-back disasters of the
2019-2020 bushfires, known as the
Black Summer, and the June 2021
flooding were the catalyst for change.
The utility serves more than 1.5 million
customers through its three regulated
networks: electricity distribution, gas
distribution, and
statewide
electricity
transmission network in Victoria.
AusNet assets, staff, and customers
were significantly affected by these incidents.
Seeking to improve both planning
and response, AusNet initiated a
more proactive approach to uncovering
insights from the decision data being
used.
" We needed to move beyond simply
looking at a weather forecast to more
accurately anticipate the impact of severe
weather events on our customers
and operations, " said Sally Jacobs,
emergency operations specialist at AusNet
(Figure 1).
Utilities worldwide are actively reviewing
their analytics needs and organizing
data to improve decision-making. The
recent Future of Utilities Summit in the
UK included an entire track on network
digitalization. Data in the utilities industry
offers insight into important metrics
related to power generation and delivery.
But gathering data is just the start. The
critical piece is how utilities model and
manage the insights from the data to
improve their efficiency and bottom line.
According to Nic Wilson, DTN product
manager for Weather Risk, utilities
in
Australia are echoing what is happening
in nearly every part of the world. DTN is
a data analytics and technology company
that helps utilities to mitigate, plan, and
prepare for all types of weather impact.
The company reports a significant increase
in requests for new, data-driven
weather risk and outage response technology
across the globe.
" The universal remit for utilities is to
deliver safe and reliable service to their
customers, and when the power does
go off, they want to respond as quickly
and safely as possible, " explained Wilson.
" They see that environmental conditions
have shifted, and we hear from them that
what once worked for rapid response is
no longer a sustainable option. "
Since 2000, the U.S. has experienced
a 78% increase in major power outages
from weather-related events, according to
Climate Central. Extreme weather, such
as high temperatures, has also impacted
Australia's power supply in the past. Wilson
noted that compound weather and
climate events, such as the Australian
bushfires followed by extreme flooding,
will further challenge utilities to plan for
multiple outage scenarios simultaneously.
Using Artificial Intelligence for
Real-Time Decisions
Like many utility companies, AusNet previously
relied on disconnected data and
historical recollection to anticipate the potential
for and severity of outages in specific
service areas. The various sources of
information created ambiguity in response
strategies and made it challenging to deploy
the appropriate level of resources.
" We'd err on the side of caution and
get all hands on deck only to find the predicted
storm didn't impact our network, "
offered Alanna Pollock, manager of Reliability
and Network Performance at
AusNet. " In the ideal world, we wanted
to lean on our experiences from similar
events but couldn't translate our previous
work effectively. "
This approach is not uncommon for
1. Sally Jacobs, emergency operations specialist at AusNet, consults with an incident commander
in the AusNet command center. Courtesy: DTN
30
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utilities, Wilson noted. " They deal with
the data they can tap into in the moment.
But the power comes from blending
and modeling it based on industry
and service-area specific factors. That is
how they get the operational intelligence
needed to best plan and make decisions
in real-time. "
The most advanced tool for helping
energy companies plan and respond
to outages uses artificial intelligence
(AI). Advanced modeling shortens the
time between data collection, analysis,
and action. It also provides actionable
insights expected to provide the best
outcomes overall. Machine learning, a
POWER | September 2023

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POWER September 2023

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