POWER September 2023 - 31

RISK MANAGEMENT
is to manage our response teams effectively, "
Pollock explained. " But the information
and the learnings from historical
data are also helpful in calculating the
estimated restoration time for our customers,
so we can have a higher degree
of certainty in sharing those messages
with them. " She noted the combination
of effective outage management and
customer communication easily fulfills
regulatory obligations.
2. DTN Storm Impact Analytics outage prediction forecast for a July wind event across the
AusNet service territory by crew planning area. Courtesy: DTN
subset of AI, automatically learns from
historical data and adapts to new intel
by absorbing massive amounts of unstructured
data. The information is then
organized and integrated with other relevant
data streams to deliver a more
informed, and up-to-date analysis of the
dynamic environment.
" That is why we ultimately chose
DTN Storm Impact Analytics, " Pollock
said. " The combination of a solution
that uses the most advanced modeling,
and is built upon historical weather and
outage data specific to our infrastructure
and service areas helps us balance
outage response. "
In addition to historical and real-time
data, Storm Impact Analytics (Figure
2) delivers sophisticated, hyper-local
weather data blended with other diverse
sets of information relevant to utilities,
including grid performance, infrastructure
integrity, service areas, topography,
and vegetation management. Weather
forecasts are continually updated every
six hours using the latest DTN global
weather forecast in a high-performing
cloud platform collapsing the time between
data collection and decision.
" It's nice as a business to have a single
source of truth on which we all agree
and trust, " Jacobs said. " This centralized,
real-time tool has become a trusted resource
for us to reliably mobilize our
operational resources. Post-incident reviews
have shown that it is helping the
operations teamwork more efficiently. "
Innovative Technology Fills Many
Different Stakeholder Demands
Like many utility service areas, Victoria's
diverse topography-mountains, grasslands,
forest, and beaches-makes it
difficult to have a standard response
protocol. During winter months, the region
is prone to intense winds, heavy
rain, and storms, while summer weather
swings in the opposite direction, often
September 2023 | POWER
resulting in heat waves and bushfires.
Adding to the response challenges
are the dense forests in eastern Victoria,
making it difficult to restore power
quickly to all affected areas, particularly
in remote or hard-to-reach regions. AusNet
now has improved, consistent line
of sight to all its assets and service areas,
and the ability to quickly pull information
about specific parts of its grid
and potential risk scenarios.
The hyperlocal nature of the DTN
weather data improves the ability of the
AusNet control room, field, customer,
and media teams to monitor potential
network impact, and interpret alerts and
forecasts into actionable responses for
their specific needs. For certain weather
risks, especially wind, which is the most
problematic weather type for AusNet,
Storm Impact Analysis (SIA) continues
to be the primary source of mobilization.
The team also uses it to categorize the
severity of weather events, which allows
them to coordinate resources across
the control room and field for outage
response priority. The shared data also
provides improved decisioning and context
for customer communications and
alerts in support of the AusNet mission
to create a seamless customer experience,
build trust, and do what is right for
local communities.
DTN's Wilson pointed out a recent
utility survey that showed utilities that
installed technology to help with severe
weather prediction and response reported
a 39% increase in customer satisfaction
and had positive media coverage.
With better intelligence around severe
weather
threats,
energy
companies
see fewer instances where field crews,
control rooms, and customer response
teams are either over or under deployed,
and managers are more confident in allocating
resources in anticipation of the
network impacts.
" The main way we use the SIA data
www.powermag.com
Future Impacts of Extreme Weather
Consistent with the growth of extreme
weather across the globe, Australia has
warmed, on average, by almost 1.5C
since record-keeping began in 1910, with
most of that change happening in the
past 25 years. " Australia has transitioned
from record-breaking heat, drought, and
bushfires to unprecedented rain and
flooding in recent years, fueled by three
back-to-back La Niña events, " explained
Weatherzone Meteorologist Ben Domensino.
Flooding can impact utility response
and crew access to flooded regions. Also,
heavy rain soaks the soil, which can result
in more downed trees during high winds,
leading to more incidents.
Domensino warned the return to El
Niño in 2023 threatens to see a return
of warmer and drier weather, with an
increased risk of intense heatwaves and
bushfires. " El Niño typically causes below
average rainfall and above average
daytime temperatures over large areas of
Australia, including Victoria, " said Domensino,
" which raises the risk of drought,
extreme heatwaves, and bushfires. "
Whether it is rain, drought, wildfires
or extreme temperatures, the scientific
consensus is that the frequency and intensity
of extreme weather events are
on the rise. That also means the potential
for more damage to infrastructure
and disruption to services. Jacobs said
Ausnet has already taken proactive measures
to better prepare for the weather
impacts of today, as well as the unforeseen
impacts of climate change in the
future by scenario-planning with Storm
Risk Analytics datasets.
" We are always seeking innovative
solutions to help ensure reliable power
for our customers, " Pollock said. " Making
data-driven decisions using AI and
advanced modeling built upon AusNet's
infrastructure and service areas strengthens
our risk management strategy and
transforms how we respond to weather
events in the future. " ■
-Renny Vandewege is vice president of
Global Commercial at DTN.
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POWER September 2023

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