pwr_january-2025 - 18

2025 INDUSTRY FORECAST
Australia and Oman as its " solar power
outperformers. " It expects Australia to
have " one of the largest solar capacity
additions over the coming 10 years, " and
it said Oman would have an " average
annual capacity growth rate of 37.0%
over the same period. " Notably, BMI
said Mexico was a market to beware of.
" Mexico's solar power growth is showing
signs of slowing, after strong doubledigit
capacity growth rates from 2019
to 2023. We forecast that the market
will experience slightly less than 5.0%
growth rate in capacity for the coming 10
years, " the report says.
Meanwhile, a report published in October
2024 by the Energy Markets and
Policy Department at the Lawrence
Berkeley
National
Laboratory (LBNL)
found that installed costs for solar in the
U.S. continued to fall in 2023 relative to
2022. The report says capacity-weighted
averages decreased by 8% to $1.43/
WAC
(or $1.08/WDC
7.1 GWAC
). " Costs, based on a
sample of 76 plants completed
in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging
10% annually) since 2010, " it says. The
levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new
2023 solar projects increased slightly to
$46/MWh prior to the application of tax
credits, but continued to fall to $31/MWh
when accounting for federal incentives.
Looking ahead, LBNL researchers
found a massive pipeline of at least
1,085 GW of solar capacity in the U.S.'s
interconnection queues at the end of
2023. Nearly 571 GW (53%) of that total
was paired with batteries. Remarkably, in
the California Independent System Operator's
queue, the percentage of solarplus-battery
projects was a staggering
98%, the report says. However, it must
be noted that historically only about 10%
of requested solar capacity has ultimately
been built.
Executives Optimistic About U.S.
Manufacturing
Lie Shi, CEO of AM Batteries, a Billerica,
Massachusetts-headquartered
ment supplier
that has developed
tenuous-bipartisan
support. " Shi expects
the new Trump administration
to build " physical and financial walls "
around the U.S. that will attract investment
to the states.
Eric Dresselhuys, CEO of ESS Inc., a
manufacturer of long-duration iron flow
energy storage solutions, conveyed a
similar message. " Fortunately, delivering
a secure, lower-emission energy
system is a goal shared by Republicans
and Democrats. Today, lower-emission
energy technologies make the most
economic sense in many cases: Wind,
solar, and energy storage are among
the lowest-cost sources of new generation.
The incoming administration's focus
on American manufacturing presents
an opportunity to meet that growing
demand with American-made energy
infrastructure-a win for good jobs at
home and for American manufacturers'
competitiveness globally, " Dresselhuys
told POWER.
The effects are already being seen. Solar
cell manufacturing resumed in the U.S.
during the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 for
the first time since 2019, marking a pivotal
moment for America's surging solar
sector. A report released in early December
by the Solar Energy Industries Association
and Wood Mackenzie says the
U.S. added a record-breaking 9.3 GW of
new solar module manufacturing capacity
in Q3 2024. It says five new or expanded
factories in Alabama, Florida, Ohio, and
Texas brought total U.S. solar module
manufacturing capacity to nearly 40 GW.
" Our current outlook for the next five
years has the U.S. solar industry growing
2% per year on average, reaching a
cumulative total of nearly 450 GW by the
end of 2029, " Michelle Davis, head of solar
research at Wood Mackenzie and lead
author of the report, said in a statement.
The Trump Effect
equipa
dry-electrode
manufacturing technology
for lithium-ion battery manufacturers,
expects " Made in America " to become
a major theme in the clean-tech space.
" Despite the uncertainty, the Inflation
Reduction Act (IRA) and the Bipartisan
Infrastructure Law (BIL) will endure, " Shi
said. " First, they are legislatively challenging
to dismantle. And second, 75%
of the grants have been allocated to Republican
districts, with 50% awarded in
swing states, ensuring-if somewhat
18
While a complete repeal of the IRA may
be unlikely, partners with the global advisory
firm Baringa believe the Trump
administration will attempt to adjust
provisions in the law. With Republicans
controlling both chambers of Congress,
President Trump should face little difficulty
doing so.
Tom Harper, an expert in U.S. Power
Markets with Baringa, and Nick Forrest,
an expert in Policy and Economics with
Baringa, studied historical Republican
amendments to the IRA, among other
things including failed bills, to get an understanding
of what provisions could be
targeted by GOP lawmakers. Based on
www.powermag.com
2. Entering his second term, President
Trump has the experience and know-how to
manage his energy agenda more effectively
from his seat in the Oval Office. Source: The
White House
POWER | January 2025
their review, building energy efficiency
rebates could be repealed, the availability
of electric vehicle (EV) subsidies
could be restricted, and the availability of
manufacturing credits to foreign entities
of concern could be limited. " These are
designated by the Secretary of State and
could be used to sanction firms associated
with China, " the two experts wrote
in a November-issued report they coauthored.
They also suggested the Clean
Hydrogen Production Tax Credit could be
at risk.
" In addition to revising IRA stipulations,
Trump can also reduce the efficacy
of the IRA through influencing the
processes within federal agencies. This
is likely to involve a tightening on clean
energy loan approval requirements and
an extension of loan approval timelines,
hence slowing renewables development
for those not yet approved, " the
report says. Notably, while many new
clean energy loan commitments were
made under the Obama and Biden administrations,
no new clean energy
loans were approved during President
Trump's previous term.
Baringa's experts said Trump (Figure 2)
branded China " a currency manipulator "
during his first term and used trade tariffs
to protect domestic industry, which
the administration felt leveled the playing
field to some extent. Biden continued
and expanded the trade tariffs on China,
for example, by upping 25% tariffs on Chinese
solar cells to 50%. The report suggests
Trump could take the tariffs to 60%
or more in his second term. Similar steps
could be taken on Chinese lithium-ion batteries,
according to the report. Green tech
is clearly " in the firing line, " it says.
The change in administration is expected
to affect the power industry in several
other ways, although not all are direct. For
http://www.powermag.com
pwr_january-2025

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