pwr_january-2025 - 7

GLOBAL MONITOR
IEA's scenarios, peak demand is slated to
soar faster than overall power demand,
it warns, and potentially 80% faster in
emerging markets and developing economies
by 2035 (Figure 1).
A key reason is that more renewables
are raising the potential for supplydemand
imbalances, but shifts are also
growing more prominent on a seasonal
level as more regions take up electric
heating and cooling, and more end-users
become electric. While many regions today
rely on natural gas and coal plants for
dispatchable capacity, the IEA suggests
rapid changes are on the horizon.
" Batteries become essential for dispatchable
capacity, and over 1,700 GW of
battery capacity are added in the STEPS
by 2035, " it projects. In addition, STEPS
sees " investment in grids increase by
nearly 70% to 2030 to modernize and extend
them, and investment in battery storage
nearly triples. " The IEA also projects a
growing role for demand-response solutions
like smart meters, dynamic tariffs,
and demand-shifting appliances. Seasonal
flexibility, meanwhile, will continue to rely
on hydropower, thermal plants, and even
curtailed renewable output, with emerging
contributions from long-duration hydrogen
storage, it suggests.
3. Pressure Is Mounting to Sustain
Adequate Power Supply.
Still, for now,
the world generally persists on an outsized
reliance on fossil fuels for power
generation. From 2010 to 2023, coal-fired
generation shot up by almost 2,000 TWh
(+23%), while gas-fired generation rose
by more than 1,700 TWh (+36%), driven
by growing electricity demand that outpaced
clean energy expansion. In emerging
economies, like India and Indonesia,
coal is slated to remain a backbone of
power generation, with unabated fossil
fuel use projected to remain near current
levels through 2030 under the STEPS
scenario. Overall, however, global coalfired
power is expected to decline by
more than 10% by 2030, while gas-fired
power rises slightly (+5%). In so-called
" advanced economies, " coal use is slated
to fall 50% and gas 15% by 2050.
Overall, unabated fossil fuels could see
their share plummet from 60% in 2023
to just 19% by 2050.
The IEA is meanwhile optimistic that
nuclear power, which currently provides
9% of the world's generation (2,765 TWh
in 2023), could increase, bolstered by
a mix of lifetime extensions, new construction,
and the return to operation
of existing reactors. Under STEPs, total
nuclear generation could dramatically inJanuary
2025 | POWER
crease to 4,460 TWh by 2050 (from a capacity
increase of 416 GW in 2023 to 647
GW in 2050). Yet, while under the APS,
it could more than double to 6,055 TWh,
nuclear's share would still hover at 9%
by mid-century.
According to the WEO 2024, renewables
will account for the vast majority
of clean power growth. By 2030, renewables
are projected to nearly double their
2023 output, growing from 9,029 TWh to
17,577 TWh, driven predominantly by solar
photovoltaic (PV) and wind, which see
compound average annual growth rates
(CAAGR) of 22% and 12%, respectively.
Solar PV alone is set to increase its share
of total electricity generation from 5% in
2023 to 17% in 2030 and 37% by 2050,
while wind will grow from 8% in 2023 to
21% by 2050 (Figure 2).
However, the IEA is emphatic that the
current pace of the transition to clean
power remains lacking. " If the power sector
is to lead the way to net zero emissions,
new low-emissions options need
to be brought to market by 2035, " it says.
These include small modular reactors;
the deployment of carbon capture, utilization,
and storage (CCUS) technologies;
and the use of low-emissions hydrogen
and ammonia. " By 2035, fossil fuels with
CCUS and low emissions hydrogen and
ammonia start to make an impact in the
NZE Scenario: together they deliver an
additional 1,100 TWh over what is in the
STEPS, setting them up to play an important
part in decarbonizing energy beyond
2035, " it says.
4. Natural Gas Demand Rising, but
Long-Term Role Uncertain. Over the
past few years, natural gas demand has
been coasting, driven by a complex mix
of higher electricity demand, coal-to-gas
switching, and its role as a critical flexibility
provider for integrating wind and solar
PV. While the IEA outlines a lengthy list
of uncertainties that could alter its trajectory,
it generally concludes that gas demand
will keep growing into the 2030s
and beyond.
A key reason is that in 2023, the
power sector comprised 40% of global
natural gas consumption. Higher power
demand-and the myriad uncertainties
surrounding demand growth-remains
a significant factor. Under STEPS, global
power demand is set to increase 2.9%
each year between 2023 and 2040. While
gas power could help meet demand
growth over the short term, over the longterm,
gas power utilization could be precarious,
it suggests. " In the STEPS, the
average capacity factor of natural gaswww.powermag.com
retrofit
auma com
AUMA RETROFIT
Discover our
service portofolio
FIT FOR THE
AUMA RETROFIT
DIGITAL
FUTURE
7
https://retrofit.auma.com http://www.powermag.com
pwr_january-2025

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of pwr_january-2025
