Commercial Architecture October 2017 - 7

EDITOR'S

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There's Sunshine In Our Economic Future

ne of my annual pre-holiday highlights is when
the good people from Uponor Inc., Apple Valley, MN, stop by to fill me in on what's going

on in the commercial-construction market and how they
are meeting the technology needs in the plumbing world.
A highlight of that highlight is Dale Stroud.
Dale is the company's senior business advisor and part
of his role is to track the economics of commercial and
residential construction. It's always of great help to me to
see the information Dale has compiled because it provides
a very good picture of what lies ahead for our industry.
This year Commercial Architecture readers also get to
hear Stroud's presentation. In advance of his annual visit,
we were fortunate to record a video of his analysis. You can
view it at commercialarchitecture.com/1710uponor.

Dale Stroud expects a 3.6% growth rate for the non-residential market in 2018, led by
education and retail construction.

To whet your whistles, here are some numbers from
Stroud's economic assessment:
* While put-in-place non-residential construction will remain above pre-recession levels, Stroud projects that
some leveling off will occur. However that "leveling off"
represents an overall 3.6% growth rate in 2018. Leading
the way at 4.8% will be education, followed by retail at
4.6%, and office construction at 4%.
* If you project non-residential construction out to 2021,
all segments show growth, but the four leaders in terms of
architectural work are healthcare, education, office, and
lodging.
In terms of where commercial construction is headed,
the positive side is that we will remain at or above pre-recession levels, the market will be active, and green building
will still be a factor. On the other side of the coin, growth
will slow a bit, though there will be several regions and/or

Through August 2017, construction unemployment has finally dropped to match the overall
job market. But the labor shortage, particularly skilled labor, will likely continue to be a
drag on growth.

segments that will show very strong growth. The biggest
negative, and one that is holding back growth to a degree,
is the labor shortage. There simply aren't enough workers,

through 2020, led by the usual healthcare, education, and

skilled or otherwise, to meet demand and there is no indi-

office players. If the labor problem can be solved, growth

cation that the situation will improve.

could potentially be stronger than projected. To learn

The bottom line is that, leveling off aside, the sun will

more, and gain some insight into the residential market, be

continue to shine on construction in general. Non-residen-

sure to watch the video at commercialarchitecturemaga-

tial construction is going to grow and remain active

zine.com/1710uponor. CA

Gary L. Parr
Editorial Director

commercialarchitecturemagazine.com

OCTOBER 2017

COMMERCI A L A RCHI T EC T URE

http://www.commercialarchitecture.com/1710uponor http://www.zine.com/1710uponor http://www.commercialarchitecturemagazine.com

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Commercial Architecture October 2017