The Catalyst Review January 2025 - 7

SPECIAL FEATURE
In fact, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) from a hypothetical development involving ten wells with the
output of the Mali one is likely to be more competitive than many current green hydrogen projects (Figure 2).
Furthermore, when the resource is an indicative 60 well development, its LCOH could potentially rival that of
conventionally produced hydrogen from fossil fuels.6
WHAT WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT NATIVE HYDROGEN
Despite the growing number of native hydrogen exploration projects, little is known about their key characteristics
necessary for their economic viability
While more and more companies are entering the race to find reserves of native hydrogen and replicate
the Mali case on a larger scale, all of them are still in the early exploration stage. This means that there is
limited data available on the key characteristics necessary for successful commercial extraction (ibid). Since
native hydrogen production is expected to resemble that of natural gas, project development must take into
account fundamental subsurface
parameters such as gas purity,
reservoir thickness, height of the
gas column, areal extent of the gas
accumulation, reservoir porosity,
gas saturation, permeability, and
pressure.
Significant uncertainties remain
regarding the origins and
accumulation of native hydrogen,
as well as its likely locations
On a more general note, although
several theories attempt
to
explain how native hydrogen
originates and accumulates, the
exact mechanisms behind the
formation and accumulation of
geological hydrogen are still not
fully explored (ibid). Without a
consistent supply of substantial volumes of trapped hydrogen gas, commercial production of native hydrogen
is currently unfeasible. That is why this uncertainty raises questions about the reliability and scalability of
natural hydrogen as an energy source. At present, it appears that a significant portion of naturally occurring
hydrogen may be inaccessible due to its depth, offshore location, or because it exists in small accumulations
that are not economically viable to extract.
Figure 2: Capital and levelized cost of native hydrogen by capacity.6
Currently, due to these uncertainties, native hydrogen presents a high potential impact but a low likelihood of
realization
While the potential to harness naturally occurring hydrogen could revolutionize the energy landscape, it's
important not to overlook geological constraints and the need for further research. As the energy sector explores
various pathways for decarbonization, it is essential to approach the development of natural hydrogen with
a balanced perspective that acknowledges both its potential and the uncertainties involved. In this context,
natural hydrogen's role in achieving a net-zero carbon future is likely characterized as a low-probability
but high-impact scenario. However, this assessment may evolve as exploration and evaluation progress and
extraction techniques are refined. Conversely, as native hydrogen resources become better understood, the
limitations on its potential impact may also become clearer.
WHAT WE SHOULD KNOW ABOUT HYDROGEN IN GENERAL
While insights from the natural gas industry offer valuable guidance for the exploration, development, and
production of native hydrogen, these essons may only partially extend to other segments of its value chain due
The Catalyst Review
January 2025
7
The Catalyst Review January 2025

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of The Catalyst Review January 2025
