Commercial Integrator + Security Sales - January/February 2025 - 62

SSI FINANCES: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
ownership stakes.13
Among the broader investment
banking and deal-making community,
optimism is running high for 2025, with
prognosticators noting pent-up transaction
demand among both buyers and
sellers after lackluster activity levels.
Top Performers
Motorola (NYSE: MSI): Motorola's stock
price has outperformed the market with a
dramatic increase of more than 60% from
$311.64 on Jan. 2, 2024, to $504.60 on Nov.
8, 2024, before settling back to $470.25 as
of Dec. 20. Motorola's stock performance
is tied to its impressive financial performance
across business units.
Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI): JCI's
stock improved from $56.04 on Jan. 2
to $85.16 on Nov. 12, representing an
increase of 52%, before settling back to
$80.64 on Dec. 20.
According to JCI's CEO, George
Oliver, " [JCI] is a faster-growing, more
profitable, simpler company.... Our
differentiated solutions to enhance efficiency
and sustainability in commercial
buildings continue to resonate with our
customers. " 14
Dormakaba (SWX: DOKA): Switzerland-based
access and security solution
provider Dormakaba enjoyed an impressive
rise of more than 50% in its stock
price from $503 at the start of the year to
$772 in early December, before settling
back to $653 as of Dec. 20.
Dormakaba's CEO comments, " In
2023/24, we have made good progress
on our strategy execution.... This led to a
strong financial performance with strong
Endnotes
1. The Business Research Company, Physical Security
Global Market Report, March 2024).
2. US Economic Expansion Expected to Continue
Through 2025, Huntington Private Bank, November
2024).
3. Huntington Private Bank, Review and Outlook,
12/6/2024.
4. Subscribers Trade Association, " 2024 State of
the Subscription Commerce Industry Outlook, "
https://21921350.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/
hubfs/21921350/SubSummit_AnnualReport2024.
pdf?__hstc=200453361.f87eff445df2f4a84c
4888cabc6d7e13.1721064542375.1721064542375.
721064542375.1&__hssc=200453361.1.1721064542375&
__hsfp=3523199817,accessed July 8, 2024.
5. Arlo Technologies, " Arlo Investor Presentation Q1
2024, " https://s22.q4cdn.com/363130056/files/
doc_financials/2024/q1/Arlo-Investor-Presentaorganic
growth and a significant margin
expansion. " 15
Securitas (OM: SECU B): Security
service provider Securitas enjoyed a nice
move in its stock this year, as it climbed
approximately 40% from $9.11 on Jan. 2 to
$12.81 as of Dec. 9, prior to a subsequent
decline to $12.46 as of Dec. 20. Strengths
in the company's technology business
coupled with higher margins supported
the company's higher valuation.
Allegion (NYSE: ALLE): Allegion's
stock price climbed from $124.25 on
Jan. 2, 2024, to a high of $153.36 on Oct.
18, representing an increase of 23.4%
as ALLE reported third-quarter 2024
earnings of $2.16 per share, beating the
$1.98 consensus of the analysts covering
the company.16
Subsequently, as of Dec.
20, the stock dropped back to $132.18.
ASSA ABLOY: Access control solution
provider ASSA ABLOY enjoyed an 18.2%
rise in its stock during 2024, with an
improvement from $26.41 on Jan. 2 to
$31.23 on Dec. 9, before dropping back
to $28.64 as of Dec. 20. Through early
December, the company continued its
inorganic growth strategy with 12 acquisitions
for the year.17
More Volatile Performers
Turning to the category of most volatile,
Alarm.com (Nasdaq: ALRM) deserves
mention, with dramatic moves in its 2024
stock price. Starting the year at $63.41,
ALRM reached a high of $75.69 on Feb.
29 before falling to a low of $52.26 and
finally recovering to $68.27 by Dec. 9.
For the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2024,
revenues versus the same period ending
tion-Q1-2024-Final.pdf, accessed July 8, 2024.
6. Motorola Solutions, " Form 10-Q, " www.motorola
solutions.com/content/dam/msi/investors/doc_
financials/2024/q1/msi_q1_2024_10-q_final.pdf,
accessed July 8, 2024.
7. Alarm.com Holdings, " Form 10-Q, " https://
d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/
CIK-0001459200/2aa0c5a8-cd9f-4525958e-89500902cb52.pdf,
accessed July 8, 2024.
8. Honeywell International, " Honeywell Completes
Acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions
Business and Updates 2024 Outlook, " www.
honeywell.com/us/en/press/2024/06/honeywellcompletes-acquisition-of-carrier-s-globalaccess-solutions-business-and-updates-2024outlook,
accessed July 8, 2024.
9. Capital IQ Transaction Screening Report, December
20, 2024.
10. S&P Capital IQ.
62 Commercial Integrator+Security Sales & Integration | January/February 2025
Sept. 30, 2023, increased to $923.8 million,
while EBITDA improved to $121.4
million. That is as compared to revenues
of $881.7 million and EBITDA of $101.2
million for the 12 months ending Sept.
30, 2023.
Napco's (Nasdaq: NSSC) stock price
started the year at $33.71, reached a high
of $58 on Aug. 19 and then fell to $34.23 on
Sept. 6. Despite the year's ups and downs,
Napco was nevertheless trading at 6.5x
revenue and 21.1x EBITDA as of Dec. 20.
Evolv (Nasdaq: EVLV). Evolv stock
declined from $4.78 on Jan. 2 to a low of
$2.37 in early November before rebounding
to $4.37 as of Dec. 9. Effective Dec. 16,
Evolv appointed John Kedzierski as the
company's new CEO.18
The stock closed at
$3.79 on Dec. 20.
Knightscope (Nasdaq: KSCP) stock
declined from $29.62 at the start of the
year to a low of $5.17 in September
before rebounding to $27.76 on Nov. 11,
and then dropping back to $13.35 as of
Dec. 20.
For the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2024,
revenues totaled $11.005 million, representing
a decline from revenues of $12.797
for the 12 months ending Sept. 30, 2023.
On Nov. 21, 2024, KSCP announced the
pricing of a public offering of 1,210,000
shares of its Class A common stock at a
public offering price of $10 per share with
gross proceeds from the offering of $12.1
million.19
SSI
TOM McCONNELL is a managing director
with Capstone Partners. He joined Capstone
in 2011 and brings more than 20 years of
investment banking experience.
11. S&P Capital IQ.
12. S&P Capital IQ.
13. PR Newswire, December 10, 2024 " Graham
Partners Joins BV Investment Partners as Investor
in Becklar. "
14. Security Systems News, November 8, 2024,
" Johnson Controls Builds 'Momentum' Heading
into Fiscal 2025. "
15. Dormakaba Media Release, September 3, 2024
" Strong organic growth and margin expansion in
2023/24 - Strategy reiterated and enhanced. "
16. CNBC, Allegion PLC, accessed December 21, 2024.
17. Capital IQ Transaction Screening Report, December
20, 2024.
18. Evolv Press Release, December 9, 2024, " Evolv
Technology Appoints John Kedzierski as Chief
Executive Officer, President and Director. "
19. Business Wire, November 21, 2024, " Knightscope
Announces Pricing of $12.1 Million Public Offering. "

http://www.Alarm.com https://s22.q4cdn.com/363130056/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/Arlo-Investor-Presentation-Q1-2024-Final.pdf http://www.motorolasolutions.com/content/dam/msi/investors/doc_financials/2024/q1/msi_q1_2024_10-q_final.pdf http://www.Alarm.com https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001459200/2aa0c5a8-cd9f-4525-958e-89500902cb52.pdf https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001459200/2aa0c5a8-cd9f-4525-958e-89500902cb52.pdf https://21921350.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/21921350/SubSummit_AnnualReport2024.pdf?__hstc=200453361.f87eff445df2f4a84c4888cabc6d7e13.1721064542375.1721064542375.721064542375.1&__hssc=200453361.1.1721064542375&__hsfp=3523199817 https://www.honeywell.com/us/en/press/2024/06/honeywellcompletes-acquisition-of-carrier-s-globalaccess-solutions-business-and-updates-2024-outlook https://s22.q4cdn.com/363130056/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/Arlo-Investor-Presentation-Q1-2024-Final.pdf

Commercial Integrator + Security Sales - January/February 2025

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