MJBizMag October 2022 - 45

T
he 2022 midterm elections
are right around the corner,
and the outcome could prove
incredibly important to U.S. marijuana
businesses.
If Republicans take control of at least
one of the two chambers of Congress-as
is largely expected to happen in the
U.S. House of Representatives-that
would dramatically affect the chances of
lawmakers passing marijuana reforms,
much less getting them signed into
federal law.
Some stakeholders say the bigger
concern, however, is the U.S. Senate,
because Minority Leader Mitch
McConnell has made it clear that
he doesn't support marijuana
legalization-or even incremental
federal changes.
ELEPHANTS AND DONKEYS
Democrats traditionally are more in
favor of legalizing marijuana, and the
Democrats' hold on the upper chamber
is as tenuous as they come, with a 5050
split that requires Vice President
Kamala Harris to break any ties. As of
press time, political forecasting website
FiveThirtyEight indicated Democrats
were " slightly favored " to retain control
of the Senate.
" I'm really worried about
the Senate, " said Justin Strekal,
founder of the Better Organizing
to Win Legalization Political Action
Committee (BOWL PAC) and a former
lobbyist for NORML. " If you look at
the upcoming (redistricting) map for
2024, if the Dems lose the Senate this
year, it's very, very unlikely they'll be
able to pick up any seats the following
cycle. "
Strekal said such a development
would almost certainly derail
marijuana legalization or other major
changes to federal cannabis laws until
2026, when Democrats would have
a decent shot at retaking the Senate
majority.
" If Republicans regain control of
the Senate under Mitch McConnell,
they will absolutely not move
comprehensive marijuana reform, "
Strekal predicted.
His opinion was echoed by others
in Washington DC who have been
advocating for marijuana legalization.
But Strekal and others said they don't
bellieve the door on reforms would
shut in a divided Congress.
Rather, having new cannabis
industry champions-including some
fresh faces who are supportive of
reform efforts-could significantly
increase the chances that major
legislation gets signed into law, several
sources said.
GENERATIONAL DIVIDE
The politics of cannabis have been
changing, slowly but surely, from a
partisan divide to a more generational
one, with older members of Congress
typically loathe to embrace the issue,
while younger members of both parties
wrap their arms around marijuana.
" The main trend is that we will
continue overall to gain support
in Congress as we see a younger
generation ... regardless of their
political affiliation, come to Congress, "
said Steve Hawkins, the former CEO of
the U.S. Cannabis Council.
Hawkins pointed to South Carolina
Republican Nancy Mace as a prime
example, since Mace made headlines
last year with the first-ever GOP
marijuana legalization bill in the
House, the States Reform Act.
" That means that which party is
in control may matter less. There's
no foregone conclusion that, if the
Republicans are in control, nothing
will happen with respect to Congress, "
Hawkins said. " That simply isn't true,
and the trend points to openings that
ultimately will help get us to the point
where cannabis gets descheduled. "
Knowing this, the Nov. 8 general
election could provide the tea leaves on
which the political future of marijuana
is written.
RACES TO WATCH
U.S. SENATE
GEORGIA
Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen.
Raphael Warnock is being challenged
by Republican former football star
Herschel Walker. While Warnock
has expressed support for federal
marijuana decriminalization and
social equity programs to repair
harms caused by the war on drugs,
Walker has indicated no interest in
marijuana reform. Marijuana industry
leadership position. The Cook Political
Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that
analyzes elections, rates this race as a
" Toss Up. "
Sen. Raphael
Warnock
Herschel Walker
insiders see this as a key to keeping
Sen. McConnell out of the majority
LOUISIANA
Democrat Gary Chambers
made a splash in January
with a viral video that
featured him smoking a
blunt and advocating for
Gary
Chambers
mjbizdaily.com | October 2022 45
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MJBizMag October 2022

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