MJBizMag October 2020 - 41

W
ith this fall's general election
the U.S. marijuana industry
could see its biggest spike
Steve
Hawkins
in business opportunities since the
2016 election. Back then, four
states-California, Maine, Massachusetts
and Nevada-legalized recreational
marijuana cultivation and sales
through the ballot box, and three
more-Arkansas, Florida and
North Dakota-approved medical
marijuana programs.
On Nov. 3, Arizona, Montana and
New Jersey, which all have established
medical programs, will hold referendums
to legalize recreational marijuana. And
voters in Mississippi and South Dakota
will vote on legalizing medical marijuana.
South Dakota voters will also consider an
adult-use marijuana initiative. The passage
of most or all of these referendums is
more than plausible-and if new markets
open, they could create billions of dollars
in business opportunities for marijuana
entrepreneurs.
Furthermore, federal marijuana
policies could change depending on the
outcome of the presidential election, as
well as 10-15 key U.S. Senate contests.
Important U.S. marijuana issues hinging
on the election outcome include:
* Banking reform.
* Elimination of Section 280E
of the federal tax code.
* A prohibition on using federal funds
to interfere with state recreational
marijuana markets.
* Legalization of medical and
recreational marijuana.
* Greater scientific research
involving marijuana.
* Decriminalization of marijuana use.
Beyond the 2020 presidential and congressional
races, marijuana entrepreneurs
could see several state legislatures pass
recreational marijuana laws, especially if
New Jersey legalizes it this year. That state
could trigger a domino effect along the
East Coast, prompting Connecticut, New
York and Pennsylvania to follow suit.
All those states legalizing marijuana
are unlikely to change President Donald
Trump's attitude toward the plant, but
some observers believe it could affect
the thinking of Democratic nominee Joe
Biden, should he become president.
Moreover, state-budget shortfalls
caused by the coronavirus pandemic
could encourage more legislators around
the country to embrace marijuana because
of its revenue-generating potential.
" As we see further legalization in the
first half of 2021, when these states meet
from January to May in their legislative
processes, by the time Congress is taking
up cannabis we could be looking at a very
different picture than we are right now in
terms of the states, and that will influence
Biden's evolution, " said Steve Hawkins,
executive director of the Washington DCbased
Marijuana Policy Project.
While the future holds the potential
for more business opportunities,
marijuana entrepreneurs shouldn't
deceive themselves into thinking they
will be limitless.
Rather, it's expected that current
medical operators in Arizona, Montana
and New Jersey would get first crack at
recreational licenses if referendums pass
in those states. Meanwhile, Mississippi
and South Dakota would be among the
smaller medical markets if referendums
pass there.
Also, it could be a while before these
markets get up and running. Consider
Maine: Adult-use sales are scheduled to
begin this month, nearly four years after
the state's voters legalized recreational
marijuana.
Still, the importance of New Jersey
potentially sparking an eastern domino
The U.S. marijuana industry landscape
could look very promising depending
on the outcome of the the Nov. 3
general election, which features MJ
ballot referendums in five states,
35 Senate races and the presidential
election. Hereʼs what might change:
* Entrepreneurs could have five
new markets in which to seek
opportunity if voters in Arizona,
Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey
and South Dakota pass legalization
referendums.
* The Democratic platform is widely
considered more marijuana-friendly
than the Republican one, though
neither presidential ticket has
committed to legalizing cannabis.
* Coupled with the outcome of the
presidential election, the outcome
of 10-15 close Senate races could
determine how much or how little
federal cannabis reform gets
accomplished in the next four years.
* Depending on who wins the White
House and the Senate, marijuana
entrepreneurs could see progress
in banking reform, abolishing 280E,
research and decriminalization.
* Voter referendums that adopt
recreational marijuana could put
pressure on other states considering
legalization-such as New York and
Pennsylvania-to approve adult use
via their legislatures.
effect and the accompanying opportunities
shouldn't be underestimated. Ditto for the
potential passage of medical marijuana
laws in Mississippi and South Dakota,
where legalization seemed inconceivable
less than a decade ago.
In this issue, Marijuana Business Magazine
takes a deep dive into the November
elections to give cannabis businesspeople
an eagle-eye view of the ballots,
elections and issues that are at stake.
Omar Sacirbey is a reporter for
Marijuana Business Magazine.
You can reach him at
omar.sacirbey@mjbizdaily.com.
October 2020 | mjbizdaily.com 41
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MJBizMag October 2020

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