BALANCE_WINTER_2024 - 39

SMALL SHIFTS, BIG REVELATIONS - PERSONAL GROWTH IS THE ULTIMATE PLOT TWIST
MIND
Hindsight bias
Ever find yourself saying, " I knew that was
going to happen! " after something totally
unexpected? That's hindsight bias at play - also
known as the " I-knew-it-all-along " effect. It's our
brain's sneaky way of convincing us we have
predicted an outcome. But here's the catch: this
bias doesn't just prevent us from learning - it
can actually be dangerous, especially when it
makes us blind to the complexity of decisions.
Psychologist Baruch Fischhoff explains,
" People's ability to understand the past
contributes little to their ability to understand
the future. " By tricking ourselves into believing
we saw an event coming, we risk overlooking
valuable lessons from failure or success.
According to psychologist and Nobel
laureate Daniel Kahneman, who died in March,
" Hindsight bias... leads observers to assess the
quality of a decision not by whether the process
was sound but by whether its outcome was
good or bad. " This can lead to unfair judgments
of others - or worse, flawed future decisions.
So, next time you think, " I knew it, " pause
and think again about what really happened - it
might save you from repeating mistakes.
B
39
Words: Rachel-Jane Waring

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