Aircraft Maintenance Technology - 44

INDUSTRY OUTLOOK

Many smaller flight schools engage their flight instructors as
independent contractors and not payroll employees, thus they
appear to not qualify for a significant portion of recent Payroll
Protection Plan (PPP) grants and loans. Flight instructors are generally the largest labor expense for a school. Without access to this
program, these schools are further strained.
Third, University aviation degree programs that were at or near
capacity pre-pandemic may likely face unprecedented declines
in enrollment as family finances are ravaged and schools ponder
whether and when to reopen their campuses. Parents may be hesitant to send their children to live in dormitories this fall and some
students may wrongly perceive dwindling long-term career prospects. A recent New York Times article posited that colleges and
Universities overall will see a 15-20 percent decline in enrollment
for Fall 2020. That will beget a further drop in training and trainees.
The not-so-secret, but seldom discussed fact outside the aviation sector is that the FAA licensed mechanic shortage was-and
is-even more severe than the pilot shortage. Just as flight schools
are suffering, many US aviation mechanic (A&P) schools have suspended or substantially curtailed operations during the pandemic.
Prior to the pandemic, the US Labor Department estimated that
11,800 maintenance positions needed to be filled each year for the
next 10 years. The latest Boeing forecast was a need for 189,000

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new maintenance personnel in North America alone by 2040. From
2015-2019 the FAA issued an average of only 6,538 new A&P licenses
per year.
The A & P mechanic license course length is typically 14 months,
and most FAA certified maintenance schools teach only that which
is necessary for students to pass the FAA written and practical
exams-leading to a pipeline into the industry and thereafter,
lengthy on the job training. Making matters worse for aviation,
a significant number of graduates pursue careers outside of aviation (estimated at 15-20 percent). Utilities, industrial companies,
amusement parks and automotive companies, amongst others, seek,
hire and retain these well-schooled federally licensed individuals.
For now, the US pilot and mechanic shortage has been somewhat allayed by COVID-19. Not even the coronavirus can impact
these industry demographics. Even assuming a soft recovery over
time, the pandemic's impact on training schools will likely result
in exacerbated shortages of both cockpit crews and mechanics for
years to come. On average, 24 months are needed to take a pilot
trainee from zero experience to the requisite 1,500 flight hours.
Disruptions in training today will have long term severe repercussions on the pipeline for aviation professionals.
What is the business lesson from this? Companies must constantly adapt, formulate and execute strategic plans and diversify

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Aircraft Maintenance Technology

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Aircraft Maintenance Technology