Fleet Maintenance - 37

E CO N O M I C O U T L O O K
»The first priority is to listen to
the experts, epidemiologists who
study these health matters.
175184125 | Buddhilakshan4 | Dreamstime.com

The size, speed,
and scope of the
effects of the
pandemic exceed
the predictive
ability of any
honest analyst.

Dealing with a
natural disaster

The recent COVID-19 outbreak makes it nearly impossible
to predict the pandemic's aftermath on the U.S. economy.
Editor's Note: Due to the unprecedented global
events caused by the COVID-19 novel coronavirus
outbreak, Bob Dieli submitted this updated piece
close to press. We understand the global pandemic
situation is fluid and news changes daily.

A few weeks ago, the Fleet Maintenance
editors asked us to prepare a piece on what we
thought the current and prospective conditions
of the trucking industry would be in April.
Needless to say, the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic was not part of that piece.
The size, speed, and scope of the effects of the
pandemic exceed the predictive ability of any
honest analyst. Since we would like to count
ourselves in that group, we are not going to
make any forecasts here. But we will tell you
what we are doing to gain an understanding of

the situation so that we can begin the analysis
that will facilitate the process of recovery.

Considerations to recover

The first priority is to listen to the experts.
In this case, the experts are epidemiologists
who study these health matters. No significant
progress was made on the construction of the
Panama Canal until management listened
to the epidemiologists who figured out that
mosquitos were the vector of contagion for

the yellow fever that was killing the workforce.
Once the disease was controlled, the rest of the
engineering problems could be solved.
Next, remember that this is a natural disaster and not a financial event. Our first response,
and responsibility, is to deal with the human
aspects of the event. The financials will take
care of themselves later.
We should be prepared for the recovery from
this event to take longer than we think it might.
While we will be able to reopen our offices,
restaurants, and other businesses quickly,
refilling the supply chain - which have been
stretched in ways we did not anticipate - is
going to take time.
Finally, let's not forget the crucial role the
trucking industry will play in all aspects of
this effort. While I can work remotely to rewrite
this piece, the soup that I am going to have for
lunch today had to spend some time in a truck.
So, to all those who are moving the goods
and to those who help them do that, thank you.
Stay safe.
»The trucking industry will play a crucial role
in the recovery effort from this pandemic.
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By Robert Dieli

ECONOMIST, MACKAY & COMPANY AND PRESIDENT,
RDLB, INC.
MacKay & Company specializes in market research for
commercial trucking, construction equipment, and
agriculture machinery. The company provides strategic
research and analyses to vehicle and component manufacturers, distribution and service channels, industry
associations, and private equity firms. With a long career
managing portfolios and coordinating domestic economic
forecasting programs, Dieli began RDLB, Inc. in 2001. In
this role, Dieli serves as an advisor to many firms in the
truck, consulting, and financial services sectors. He is also
an economist with MacKay & Company.

April 2020 | VehicleServicePros.com

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Fleet Maintenance

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