december2021 - 38

ECONOMI C OUTLOOK
cated issues were worsening. Again, shortages
are seen from bumper to bumper.
This tangle in the supply chain for goods
differs from those in the past only in its scale.
We have had weather-related bottlenecks,
labor-related bottlenecks, and regulatory
bottlenecks many times in the past. We just
have never had them everywhere at the same
time. We will work this out. It might be the end
of 2022 before we do, but we will work this out.
The labor supply chain
The supply chain for labor is one that we usually
don't think about because it operates in the
background. In order for a person to take a
job, they have to be part of the labor force. In
the United States, that is someone between the
ages of 15 and 64 who is willing and able to
work. The problem now is not willingness to
work, but ability to work.
In February of 2020, just before the
pandemic shutdowns began, there were
164.4 million persons in the U.S. workforce.
Of those, 86.9 million were men and 77.5
million were women.
In April of 2020, at the depth of shutdowns,
1297783012 | dane_mark | Getty Images and 111957338 | Elenabsl | Dreamstime
the workforce had dropped 4.8%, falling to
156.5 million people-83.2 million men and
73.5 women.
The latest figures from the Bureau of Labor
Untangling the supply chains
It's a mess out there, and
resolution may not come
until the end of 2022.
Yes, you read that right. We need to untangle
the supply " chains " -plural. Because there
are two chains: one for goods; one for labor.
The goods supply chain
By now, all of us have had at least one encounter
with the snarled supply chain for goods.
The ports are clogged,
This problem started when the forced
lockdowns of 2020 brought the movement of
goods to a standstill globally. Since that time,
we have been working through the backlog
created by the shutdown and surge generated
by the reopening.
The untangling of this supply chain depends
on our ability to physically move goods and
little else. Already, steps are being taken to
increase the hours of operation at the ports
and at the major transportation and transshipment
nodes.
Reinforcing the point on supply chain
the rail yards are
jammed, the freight terminals are congested,
and some shelves are bare.
By Robert Dieli
ECONOMIST, MACKAY & COMPANY
AND PRESIDENT, RDLB, INC.
MacKay & Company specializes in market research for
commercial trucking, construction equipment, and
agriculture machinery. The company provides strategic
research and analyses to vehicle and component manufacturers,
distribution and service channels, industry
associations, and private equity firms. With a long career
managing portfolios and coordinating domestic economic
forecasting programs, Dieli began RDLB, Inc. in 2001. In
this role, Dieli serves as an advisor to many firms in the
truck, consulting, and financial services sectors. He is also
an economist with MacKay & Company.
constraints, MacKay & Company releases a
monthly publication, DataPulse Plus, where we
highlight monthly data from dealers, distributors,
and fleets. Since the pandemic began,
we have been tracking parts shortages and the
percentage of dealers and distributors that are
experiencing these struggles on the front lines.
In our September DataPulse Plus (results
for August), 93% of dealers indicated issues
getting parts, with 53% noting that issues
have remained the same. Another 47% reported
worsening shortages. Shortages are seen
across the board for numerous components,
fluids, steel, etc.
For distributors, the picture is similar, with
85% of our distributor panel reporting parts
shortage issues. Half noted that issues have
remained the same and the other half indi38
Fleet Maintenance | December 2021
Statistics for September 2021 show a workforce
of 161.4 million persons with 85.8 million
men and 75.6 million women.
Why are we telling you this? Because the
workforce is currently short by 3 million
compared to the start of the pandemic. How
and when we get the 1.1 million men and 1.9
million women back will largely determine how
and when we untangle the supply chain of labor.
Just as we have all had encounters with
the kinked supply chain for goods, so too
have most of us become aware of the strong
demand for labor-reflected in the display
of help wanted signs in front of just about
every commercial establishment we pass by
or patronize. Where is the supply of labor to
fill those positions?
In many cases, the labor supply is stuck at
home with childcare obligations that would
normally be covered by school attendance. In
other instances, would-be workers are reluctant
to return to jobs due to health and safety
concerns. And, in case you were wondering,
those not in the labor force do not qualify for
unemployment compensation, so the existence
of those programs was never a factor in this
part of the labor supply chain problem.
The bottom line is the two major problems
we are facing with the supply chains for goods
and labor are not going to be solved by fiscal
or monetary policy, by the sermonizing of politicians,
or the exhortations of the chamber of
commerce. The first problem will be solved by
the physical movement of the goods through
the system; the second by the removal of obstacles
that are keeping people, especially women,
from going back into the workforce and ultimately
back to work.
december2021

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