february2023 - 34
ECONOMI C OUTLOOK
Estimating odds
of recession in 2023
Understanding the Federal Reserve's recession indicators.
The first economic statistics the FOMC gives
Having spent almost all of 2020 under various
forms of lockdown, the global economy
began to regain its momentum in 2021. But
by late 2021, new instability, most visible in
the supply chain disruptions, was threatening
further growth.
New patterns of demand, together with uncertainty
in supply, brought about changes in prices
that quickly coalesced into enough inflation
to attract the attention of the Federal Reserve,
which began to raise interest rates early in 2022.
The single-most important factor in determining
the start of a recession in 2023 is how,
when, and why the Federal Reserve stops raising
the Target Federal Funds rate. Unless there
are exigent circumstances, all announcements
about monetary policy will take place at the
regularly scheduled meetings of the Federal
Open Market Committee (FOMC). At those
meetings, the Committee examines a host of
economic statistics as well as anecdotal information
about business conditions to decide
what the risks to stable economic states are
and how to meet those risks.
» MacKay & Company's leadership during
HDAW 2023: (L to R) John Blodgett, Stu
MacKay, Robert Dieli, Molly MacKay-Zacker, and
Dave Kalvelage.
John Hitch | Fleet Maintenance
a close reading to are the employment figures
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
usually on the first Friday of the month. We
say " close reading " because the headlines
on the report are the least valuable piece of
information in the report. The size and, most
importantly, the composition of the change in
employment is what matters.
» Robert Dieli discusses economic
trends at Heavy Duty Aftermarket
Dialogue 2023 in Grapevine, Texas.
John Hitch | Fleet Maintenance
Over the past several months, the number
of people on payrolls has been increasing by
about 250,000 each month, a pace consistent
with an expanding economy. Because
the FOMC has stated a desire to see the pace
of expansion slacken, it will take a smaller
number to convince them of that fact.
The second report the FOMC will look at,
also in minute detail, is the rate of inflation
as calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics
in the All-Items Consumer Price Index Report
(CPI). The CPI is a measure of the cost of living.
The year-over-year percent change in the CPI
is the most widely known measure of inflation.
The FOMC uses the CPI rate of inflation,
together with several other indexes, to assess
current and prospective price pressures in the
economy. Rising inflation is a risk to economic
34 Fleet Maintenance | February 2023
february2023
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of february2023
Hitched Up: Hype is real with predictive maintenance
Equipment: Is it time for smart trailer adoption?
In The Bay: Roadmap to resolve roadside breakdowns
Shop Operations: Saving a fortune with predictive maintenance
Powertrain: Improving engine efficiency and service life
Tires: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle: Retreading commercial tires
Economic Outlook: Estimating odds of recession in 2023
Guest Editorial: How fuel-operated heaters ease aftertreatment issues
Fleet Parts & Components
Tools & Equipment
Product Spotlight: User insights on alignment tools
february2023 - 1
february2023 - 2
february2023 - 3
february2023 - 4
february2023 - 5
february2023 - Hitched Up: Hype is real with predictive maintenance
february2023 - 7
february2023 - Equipment: Is it time for smart trailer adoption?
february2023 - 9
february2023 - 10
february2023 - 11
february2023 - 12
february2023 - 13
february2023 - In The Bay: Roadmap to resolve roadside breakdowns
february2023 - 15
february2023 - 16
february2023 - 17
february2023 - 18
february2023 - 19
february2023 - Shop Operations: Saving a fortune with predictive maintenance
february2023 - 21
february2023 - 22
february2023 - 23
february2023 - 24
february2023 - 25
february2023 - 26
february2023 - 27
february2023 - Powertrain: Improving engine efficiency and service life
february2023 - 29
february2023 - Tires: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle: Retreading commercial tires
february2023 - 31
february2023 - 32
february2023 - 33
february2023 - Economic Outlook: Estimating odds of recession in 2023
february2023 - 35
february2023 - Guest Editorial: How fuel-operated heaters ease aftertreatment issues
february2023 - 37
february2023 - Fleet Parts & Components
february2023 - Tools & Equipment
february2023 - 40
february2023 - 41
february2023 - Product Spotlight: User insights on alignment tools
february2023 - 43
february2023 - 44
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