October 2019 - 21

ORGANIC
The organic wave is coming - and what it means
By Steve Lutz
Category Partners
It doesn't take much in the way of
observational powers to conclude
that organic produce is in the process
of transitioning from being a niche,
relatively narrow array of products into a
major magnet for an increasing share of
consumer food dollars. Walk into almost
any mainstream supermarket and organic
produce items now
abound. That's a
big change in just
the last five years.
This expanding
abundance of
organic produce
presents two
new challenges
for producers.
One is that
while this shift is generally occurring
relatively slowly it is positioned to cause
significant disruption for fruit growers,
particularly in the apple category.
Second, in the near term, the most
significant disruption will likely be felt
by the organic producers themselves.
As organic options expand, the
STEVE LUTZ
challenge for fruit growers is this: The
shift of existing consumers purchasing
from conventional items to organic
items is usually 100% substitution; there
is limited volume. Most consumers
who flips from buying conventionally
grown apples, berries and bananas to
organic items essentially abandon the
conventional product in favor of newfound
organically grown substitutes.
That's a great outcome if you're an
organic producer. It's a transitional
challenge but volume neutral if you
produce both conventional and organics.
But, if you only grow conventional
products the potential for disruption in
your business is obvious.
If we examine what consumers
respond to via preference studies, we
can see why the shift from conventional
produce to organic items is likely to
continue and organic production
continues. In study after study, a large
majority of consumers tell us that, in
general, they believe organics to be
superior to conventional products in
almost every way: Better flavor, better
growing practices, better for the earth,
better to feed to a family. These views are
held even firmer among households with
Steve Lutz was a presenter in July at the Organic Produce Summit held in Monterey,
California. Photos: Gary Pullano
children in the home and those under
age 35 (future consumers!). Arguing
that consumers are misinformed about
the safety of conventional produce
is irrelevant. Consumers believe it
and they increasingly show it in their
purchase patterns.
You can see this trend very clearly in
the Nielsen supermarket performance
data. Over the most recent four
years between 2015 and the end of
2018, volume in total conventional
produce declined by 1% across U.S.
supermarkets. Meanwhile, organic
volume expanded by 29%. Put another
way, over the past four years, the ONLY
See ORGANIC, page 22
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FGN | OCTOBER 2019 | 21
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October 2019

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of October 2019
