September 2020 - 4

EDITOR'S LETTER
Fruit
Stay resilient, entrepreneurial
Home deliveries, direct sales and an emphasis
on local producers are just a few of the ways
that the agriculture industry has changed during
COVID-19. Change will continue as the economy
evolves, and the resiliency that the agriculture
industry possesses will see it through what lies
ahead.
David Kohl, emeritus professor of agriculture
and applied economics in the College of
Agriculture and Life Sciences at Virginia Tech,
recently provided insight on how he sees
the agriculture industry adapting to the new
economy.
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Retail produce demand softens a bit as
economic pressure mounts
In March - almost overnight - 70% of the
agriculture market disappeared as COVID-19 began
to spread around the world. Restaurants, hotels, airlines, as well as other
industries, ceased or drastically cut food orders, which caused decreased
demand and led to a major change in how producers and local food
processors delivered their goods.
Gary Pullano
Managing Editor
Fresh produce did generate $1.34 billion in
sales the week ending Aug. 2 - an additional
$104 million in fresh produce sales over the
prior year.
Kohl said that to maintain a revenue stream, farmers and producers
pivoted business models almost overnight and began selling directly to
consumers. As businesses re-open, they are looking to maintain these
customers that came from that shift in demand.
" I think it's sustainable for businesses that are in touch with consumers, "
Kohl said. " For businesses that are adaptable, entrepreneurial and provide
a valued service, the model is sustainable. It is not sustainable if you're just
going to try to purely commoditize this.
Asia Fruit Logistica is On for this November
Asia Fruit Logistica is pivoting to a new
digital format in November 2020. It's called
Asia Fruit Logistica On and it's the place
where Asia's fresh produce business meets
online.
" Some industries are not going to come back to 100%, " Kohl said. " As
I work with the agriculture industry and farm groups, we all hope that we
will operate in an environment comprised of at least 90% of the previous
economy, but some of those economies might be 50 to 75%, like hotels and
airlines. "
When facing a life-changing and society-changing event, the economic
market for agriculture has a few historical phases, according to Kohl, who
calls these events that occur about every 10 years " black swans. "
" This one, the suddenness and the global nature of the pandemic, is not
over because there are re-emerging health issues going across the globe, "
Kohl said. " Every black swan will accelerate change in the economy, business
models and basic human behavior. "
The three phases that comprise a black swan event are the dirty bird,
angry bird and the phoenix.
The dirty bird phase results in job loss and preventative health practices.
The economy was shut down and anxiety was felt.
The angry bird phase is composed of a variety of recovery plans. Job losses
have already occurred, pay cuts have been taken, the stock market is volatile
and confusion and frustration may be rampant. The final characteristic of
the angry bird phase is deglobalization.
In the decades following World War II, globalization was the name of the
game, Kohl said. About 20% of net income was from agriculture exports.
Now, though, deglobalization and regionalization are occurring, where a
country is inclined to take care of itself and deal only with trusted trading
partners. Delivery methods that are less dependent on international
transport, such as rail and road, will become more important.
Regionalization of processing is also likely to occur, said Kohl. Currently,
the vast majority of food processing in the United States occurs in the
Midwestern region. A push to have processing occur in Mid-Atlantic
states is likely.
The phoenix is the bird that comes out of the angry bird phase and
will likely occur in early 2021. There's a collective commitment to move
forward together. The phoenix phase for the current " black swan " event,
Kohl said, will likely have accelerated innovation, artificial intelligence
and health systems.
Transparency of where food originates, is processed and where it is
distributed is one policy change that could be on the horizon.
The final change Kohl hopes to see is an emphasis on healthy soil and
water.
" If you look at where some of these diseases have occurred, it's in places
that have unhealthy soil and water. If you have healthy soil and water, you
have a healthy plant, animal and human being in an environment. "
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THEY SAID IT
Many apple growers are hanging on by their fingernails, so
USDA's decision is great news and not a moment too soon. "
-JIM BAIR, U.S. APPLE ASSOCIATION
P. 25
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showcase/fruitgrowers-news
Primary
BioAg Innovations, Global BioAg
Linkages add Pam Marrone to board
Primary BioAg Innovations and Global BioAg
Linkages announced that Pam Marrone will
become chair of the board of directors and
partner in both companies.
Surge in child ATV injuries linked to
pandemic, experts say
The typical summer surge in all-terrain vehicle
injuries kicked off early this year, as children
were out of school due to COVID-19 and
parents struggled with child care and working
from home.
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September 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of September 2020
