September/October 2020 - 15

DIRTY SECRETS
Holiday 2020 Will Feel Very Different -
And It Should
Shopping, or at least the physical act of shopping in a store,
is all about using all our senses, and wearing a face covering
will, for many, intrude on the enjoyment of the experience of
the fragrances of greenery, gourmet goods and gifts. Will this
automagically shift everyone to online sales? Or will it manifest
by discounting your already on order fall merchandise in
October and November?
This is the time when the relationships with vendors are
going to be paramount. Leveraging existing relationships
between buyers and vendors can be an untapped goldmine. By
cultivating some good favor, retailers can have a better idea of
what buyers will most likely be looking for.
So how will retailers forecast sales and orders if buyers will
be placing orders closer to the delivery date? This is where
we find the tricky part for this year: Orders are very slow to
be made or they simply aren't being placed now, thanks to
a perfect mix of financial fear and lack of financial means.
However, pent-up demand for familiarity and comfort are wild
card factors as garden centers have already seen plant sales
records across the country for spring and summer, so don't
count anything out.
What does that mean on the back end? The process is a little
more opaque now. We think the same amount and type of
orders will be placed from buyers, but they'll be placing them
much closer to expected delivery time.
Volumes of purchase orders that may have been cancelled
earlier this year for September deliveries will likely be delayed.
But in the fourth quarter, that same long lead time for the
production process (plus a newly super short delivery window)
will become the stuff of nightmares for retailers. How do you
manage orders when the lead time to production is longer
than the actual time you have to the order date? Will the
Coronavirus have essentially stolen Christmas?
Taking Back Holiday Shopping and Beyond
The Grinch may just have too much power here, though,
in making us panic months down the road. We hear stories
that make us clutch our pearls in fear, such as certain
retailers announcing that they are holding back inventory
for fall deliveries. But there is danger in this level of shortterm
thinking and reactionary panicking, with longer-term
effects that could very well become a holiday season's selffulfilling
prophecy.
As more and more states are re-assessing restrictions due
to rising infection rates or are not reopening at all for business
as usual, hopeful signs as of this writing point to a very
hesitant return to work and a return to regular income. Q3, and
especially Q4, are still far enough in the future that optimists
feel there will be holiday money to spend. But will retailers
have items to offer?
Weighing the Options
There is the " wait and see, " where wholesalers simply wait
until buyers are ready to order again and then hope and rush
production and delivery. Or they could also take the " educated
guess " approach, and utilize manufacturers reopening now
to get a
jump start
on producing
a stockpile of
items, using
research and
experience to
estimate what
retailers are
going to want to order, and how
much of it they'll want.
Option one takes the
uncertainty of inaccuracy out
of the mix but ramps up the
physical constraint of time. Option
two allows brands to have enough
time to produce items, but there is the
potential for wasted time and money on inventory that won't
actually be bought. And, until we get a definite and full " all
clear, let's reopen everything " announcement, production and
demand remains a bit of a " Buttered Cat " scenario.
The knee-jerk reaction on the retailer side, now, is to
stop purchase orders, stop winter collections and pause
plans. However, if we wait until everything is 100% back to
normal and a secure market assured, those retailers will find
themselves well behind demand for the holidays. In fact,
many factories have already opened back up again. And, while
shipping times may still be impacted, the means of production
are there.
There is no denying that this is a time of leaner spending
and it's probably not the right time to launch an expensive
marketing campaign. But what it is time for is to realize that
the COVID-19 shutdowns are temporary, and hopefully we can
plan for more normalcy for the fall and winter season.
So no, the Coronavirus may not steal Christmas after all.
It's just the unnerving balancing act that savvy retailers may
be able to attract shoppers to their sites. However, the reality
is many suffer from 90% cart abandonment. Only 2.86% of
ecommerce website visits convert to a purchase.
If retail is to suffer this Q4, it will come more from a lack
of planning for post-crisis and an unwillingness to adapt to a
changed world. While many variables remain unknown, now is
the time to be forward-thinking and prepare to save your own
holiday season and seasons beyond with these key emphases:
Carefully plan your offerings, make products more accessible,
minimize high-touch displays, freshen your displays more
often and focus on your store feeling " safe and open. "
Christina Salwitz, the Personal Garden Coach, is a
container designer, public speaker, horticultural guidance
counselor, service provider for The Garden Center Group and
photojournalist based in Renton, Washington. She can be
reached at personalgardencoach@comcast.net.
LGRMAG.COM | 15
http://www.LGRMAG.COM
September/October 2020

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