September 2020 - 4

EDITOR'S LETTER
Stay resilient, entrepreneurial
Home deliveries, direct sales and an emphasis on local producers are just a
few of the ways that the agriculture industry has changed during COVID-19.
Change will continue as the economy evolves, and the resiliency that the
agriculture industry possesses will see it through what lies ahead.
David Kohl, emeritus professor
of agriculture and applied economics in
the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences
at Virginia Tech, recently provided insight
on how he sees the agriculture industry
adapting to the new economy.
In March - almost overnight - 70% of
the agriculture market disappeared as
COVID-19 began to spread around the world.
Restaurants, hotels, airlines, as well as other
industries, ceased or drastically cut food
orders, which caused decreased demand and
led to a major change in how producers and
local food processors delivered their goods.
Kohl said that to maintain a revenue stream,
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farmers and producers pivoted business models almost overnight and began
selling directly to consumers. As businesses re-open, they are looking to
maintain these customers that came from that shift in demand.
" I think it's sustainable for businesses that are in touch with consumers, "
Kohl said. " For businesses that are adaptable, entrepreneurial and provide
a valued service, the model is sustainable. It is not sustainable if you're just
going to try to purely commoditize this.
" Some industries are not going to come back to 100%, " Kohl said. " As
I work with the agriculture industry and farm groups, we all hope that we
will operate in an environment comprised of at least 90% of the previous
economy, but some of those economies might be 50 to 75%, like hotels and
airlines. "
When facing a life-changing and society-changing event, the economic
market for agriculture has a few historical phases, according to Kohl, who
calls these events that occur about every 10 years " black swans. "
" This one, the suddenness and the global nature of the pandemic, is not
over because there are re-emerging health issues going across the globe, "
Kohl said. " Every black swan will accelerate change in the economy, business
models and basic human behavior. "
The three phases that comprise a black swan event are the dirty bird,
angry bird and the phoenix.
The dirty bird phase results in job loss and preventative health practices.
The economy was shut down and anxiety was felt.
The angry bird phase is composed of a variety of recovery plans. Job losses
have already occurred, pay cuts have been taken, the stock market is volatile
and confusion and frustration may be rampant. The final characteristic of
the angry bird phase is deglobalization.
In the decades following World War II, globalization was the name of the
game, Kohl said. About 20% of net income was from agriculture exports.
Now, though, deglobalization and regionalization are occurring, where a
country is inclined to take care of itself and deal only with trusted trading
partners. Delivery methods that are less dependent on international
transport, such as rail and road, will become more important.
Regionalization of processing is also likely to occur, said Kohl. Currently,
the vast majority of food processing in the United States occurs in the
Midwestern region. A push to have processing occur in Mid-Atlantic
states is likely.
The phoenix is the bird that comes out of the angry bird phase and
will likely occur in early 2021. There's a collective commitment to move
forward together. The phoenix phase for the current " black swan " event,
Kohl said, will likely have accelerated innovation, artificial intelligence
and health systems.
Transparency of where food originates, is processed and where it is
distributed is one policy change that could be on the horizon.
The final change Kohl hopes to see is an emphasis on healthy soil and
water.
" If you look at where some of these diseases have occurred, it's in places
that have unhealthy soil and water. If you have healthy soil and water, you
have a healthy plant, animal and human being in an environment. "
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Michigan
State University developed an
e-tool, the COVID-19 Hazard Assessment
and Mitigation Plan, to assist the
Michigan agriculture community in
assessing risk for the spread of COVID-19
in their operations.
Mississippi farm provides support for
healthy food in inner city
For the past five years, Foot Print Farms
has taken thousands of pounds of food
every Saturday to the farmers' market
located in downtown Jackson, Mississippi.
Visits to produce farms highlights height of
the season in New Jersey
New Jersey Secretary of Agriculture
Douglas H. Fisher made several stops
at farm and distribution operations in
mid-July to highlight the arrival of Jersey
Fresh fruits and vegetables.
Organic fresh produce sales register
double-digit growth in Q2
Total organic fresh produce sales and
volume registered double-digit growth
in the second quarter of 2020, with
April-June 2020 sales increasing 17%
and volume up 18% from the same
period in 2019.
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September 2020

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of September 2020
