Independent Banker - January 2024 - 17
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" I wouldn't say that the doors are blown off with
demand for those loans, but we are aware that
the larger banks have pulled back a little bit.
... I do think that could offer us some opportunities
in areas where we are actively lending. "
-JAMES W. GORE, LUMBEE GUARANTY BANK
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the streets that their current fi nancial
institutions haven't been able to serve
during this time. "
ANB Bank's approach has been to
be a steady, consistent lender, which
is what customers need right now,
Propst adds.
Economy will influence demand
Much of the outlook for lending in
2024 depends on how the economy
performs. At the start of the fourth
quarter, economists were generally
predicting lower but fl at or slight
growth in 2024. The Conference
Board's U.S. economy forecast from
November predicted a decline in GDP
growth from 2.4% in 2023 to 0.8%
in 2024.
However, people have been talking
about the possibility of a recession
for more than two years, and it hasn't
materialized. " For us, we don't go
in and out of businesses; we try to
stay consistent in how we lend, " says
Dave Seiler, president and COO of
First Business Financial Services Inc.,
parent company of First Business
Bank in Madison, Wis.
Although the $3.3 billion-asset
community bank still expects to grow
in 2024, activity may shift to diff erent
products depending on what happens
with the economy, he adds.
The macro numbers still show
solid growth. Unemployment is still
low, consumer spending is strong,
and while infl ation is still higher
than the Fed would like, it's come
down signifi cantly compared with
its previous high levels. There are
pockets of challenges in certain
areas such as the housing market,
transportation and offi ce properties,
but problems are not widespread in
the economy, notes Seiler.
" I would say we're in a 'steady as
she goes' mode. We're doing this like
we always have and keeping our eyes
open to see if the economy changes, "
he says. " But right now, we feel like
it's going really well. "
Diff ering fortunes across sectors
Lending opportunities and challenges
ahead in the coming year vary
widely across loan types, industries
and geographies. In the mortgage
sector, high housing costs and a
limited supply of for-sale inventory
remain big challenges. Single-family
mortgage originations are down
substantially from their high of
$2.37 trillion in 2022.
However, the latest Fannie Mae
Housing Forecast calls for an uptick
in activity in the coming year.
Single-family mortgage originations
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Independent Banker - January 2024
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Independent Banker - January 2024
Contents
Independent Banker - January 2024 - Cover1
Independent Banker - January 2024 - Cover2
Independent Banker - January 2024 - Contents
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 2
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 3
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 4
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 5
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 6
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 7
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Independent Banker - January 2024 - 20
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 21
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 22
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Independent Banker - January 2024 - 33
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 34
Independent Banker - January 2024 - 35
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Independent Banker - January 2024 - Cover3
Independent Banker - January 2024 - Cover4
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