The Future of Higher Education - 5

Part 1: The Global Context
alliances in that case: China's One Belt, One
Road across Asia, Africa, and Europe, or the
U.S.-U.K.-Australian " AUKUS " partnership. This
competition stretches across many aspects of
participating societies, from mining and chip
manufacturing to what appears to be a new
space race.
As with the more violent conflicts discussed
above, academia is involved. Both " Cold War
2.0 " nations have accused academics from
the other country of committing espionage.
Each has sought to use higher education as a
tool of statecraft, as when China opened many
Confucius Institutes on or near campuses and
the United States has recruited Chinese students.
Various American leaders have floated the idea
of restricting certain fields from Chinese student
enrollment: artificial intelligence, synthetic
biology, and cybersecurity, to name a few.
NATIONAL POLITICS
At the same time as international politics heat
up, the domestic political situation (far too
complex to summarize here) is already impacting
American colleges and universities. Polling has
shown rising skepticism about higher education's
value. Political populism criticizes academia
for being too elitist and wealthy. Support for or
opposition to diversity, equity, and inclusion
(DEI) programs has already changed campus
offerings in many states. Further, a general
suspicion of authority and expertise threatens
to further degrade popular support for postsecondary
education.
While some aspects of this trend are longrunning,
others are based on short-term events,
notably the upcoming 2024 national elections.
In the short term, we might expect higher
Part 1: The Global Context
2
education to become even more politicized.
DEMOGRAPHICS
Demographic trends have the advantage
for researchers of being very extensively
documented. They also play out over decades,
given human lifespans, which make the data
useful for forecasting. Unless something very
unlikely occurs, demographic analyses give us a
fairly reliable glimpse of the coming years.
Two demographic trends stand out for higher
education, starting with deep changes to age.
Briefly, nearly every society which goes through
modern development sees lifespans extend and
fertility rates plummet - i.e., the society produces
fewer and fewer children, ultimately to the
point of shrinking overall, while the number of
senior citizens increases, as does adult lifespan.
The reasons for this are generally understood
The Future of Higher Education

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