Jetrader - Spring 2014 - 36

appraisal

SSJ-100
Bob Cowgill
Managing Director
ACI Aviation Consulting
Tel: 540-428-4388
bcowgill@aciaviation.com

Background and Current Market Outlook
Obscured behind the do-or-die competition between Bombardier
and Embraer for the 100-seat regional market lurks the Sukhoi
SuperJet SSJ-100. With its storied pedigree of the 75-year Sukhoi
name, the SSJ-100 has been tasked to compete with the best technology that the Western world has to offer. Unfortunately, it is also
burdened with the hopes and aspirations of the Russian aerospace
industry to deliver an aircraft capable of wide acceptance to a
skeptical world. Today, nearly 14 years after its conception and
five years since its first flight, the SSJ-100 finally appears to be
on its way, although toward an uncertain future.
If acceptance in the West is a primary objective, the Sukhoi
has taken on a host of partners with names familiar in the aviation industry, starting with consulting assistance from Boeing
early in the program. The aircraft features components from wellknown suppliers including Thales, Messier-Dowty, BE Aerospace,
Hamilton-Sunstrand and others. Its PowerJet SaM146 engines are
manufactured by a joint venture between Russia's NPO Saturn and
France's SNECMA.
The relatively small number of aircraft delivered to date,
coupled with the uncertainty of future customer growth, makes
estimates of future value somewhat speculative. In addition, the
concentration of airframes with few carriers and the absence of
large leasing companies from the order book are not a positive

influence. Competitive pressures are significant, coming primarily
from the well-established Bombardier CRJ-1000 and Embraer 190.
Efficiency improvements anticipated from the introduction of
the Embraer 190 E2 in 2018 may not affect near-term prospects
for the SSJ-100 but could discourage future orders unless Sukhoi
undertakes an upgrade program, an unlikely prospect without an
assurance of significant orders.
The large amount of Western content of the SSJ-100 provides
some comfort, as does ongoing political support by the Russian
government. Better yet would be a strong commitment to an FAA
certification program that would open sales to the world's largest
aircraft market and allow it to compete, not only with existing
products, but also with the much-delayed Mitsubishi MRJ90, now
expected to deliver in Q2 2017. In the meantime, news reports from
Mexican low-cost carrier Interjet indicate better than expected
reliability, which may bode well for future marketing efforts.
The SSJ-100/95 made its first flight in 2008, and the first
deliveries were made to Armavia in 2011. The aircraft is offered
both in a standard "B" and LR variants. The LR version increases
maximum takeoff weight by nearly 8,000 pounds (3,636 kilograms)
above the standard configuration, allowing a maximum range of
2,470 nautical miles versus 1,645 nautical miles for the standard.
Early plans for a SSJ100/75, with up to 88 seats in a single class,
appear to have been delayed or cancelled.

Sukhoi SSJ-100/95 Current Fleet and Backlog
Region
In Service
Backlog
Stored
0
0
0
Africa/Middle East
Asia/Pacific
4
64
0
Europe + CIS
22
99
0
Latin/South America
2
20
0
North America
0
6
0
Total
28
189
0

Year of
Build
2011
2012
2013
2014

Current
Market
Value
21.76
23.91
25.99
27.95

SSJ-100 Operators
Carrier
Aircraft in Service
Aeroflot
10
Interjet
4
Sky Aviation
3
Lao Central Airlines
2
All Others
9

Sukhoi SuperJet SSJ-100 Values ($m) as of January 2014
Current
Future Base Values at 1.5% Inflation
Base
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Value
21.76
20.38
19.08
17.86
16.60
15.42
14.33
13.22
23.91
22.39
20.96
19.63
18.24
16.95
15.75
14.52
25.99
24.34
22.79
21.34
19.83
18.42
17.12
15.79
27.95
26.17
24.51
22.95
21.32
19.81
18.41
16.98

2022

2023

2024

12.19
13.39
14.56
15.65

11.24
12.35
13.42
14.43

10.28
11.30
12.28
13.21

The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the
information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
36 The ofﬁcial publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
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