Jetrader - Summer 2015 - 45

appraisal

ATR72-600

Bob Cowgill
ISTAT-Certified Appraiser
Managing Director
Airliner Price Guide
Tel: 540-428-4388
bcowgill@aciaviation.com

Background

some carbon-fiber components, a 500 lb
increase in MTOW, and a modern Thales avionics package with wide-format displays.
Certification of the aircraft with Category
II landing capability along with an RNP
of 0.3 (Required Navigation Performance)
would bring flight deck technology of the
ATR up to jet aircraft standards.
The first ATR72-600 was delivered to Royal
Air Maroc in August 2011 and, since then, the
company has delivered 209 of the aircraft
worldwide adding to the already sizeable
population of -200s and -500s. Over 50 percent reside in the Asia-Pacific region and 30
percent in Latin America where they are a
mainstay for the likes of Brazil's fast growing Azul who will add six leased aircraft to
its fleet this year. Backlog is well above the
competition with 149 remaining to be delivered-not including options. Significant
orders by Nordic Aviation Capital and Air
Lease Corporation indicate confidence from
the lessor community.

By the arrival of the US recession in 2007,
the worldwide market for commercial turboprop aircraft appeared to have peaked. With
orders forming a bottom after 9/11 and
with over 10 years of "rightsizing" airline
fleets replacing larger, mainline aircraft
with regional jets, the turboprop market
appeared mostly on the margins, shrinking
in the U.S., and steady but without much
growth elsewhere. ATR and Bombardier,
the only two manufacturers left standing,
continued to offer their flagship ATR72500 and DHC8-400, respectively and there
was speculation that one of these companies might abandon the 70-seat market
altogether.
Fortunately, July 2009 brought the first
flight of the ATR72-600; the company's
update of the -500 variant. The -600
featured improved operating economics though the adoption of the PW127M
powerplant, a lighter structure featuring

Competition is primarily from the
78-seat Q400 and, to a lesser extent, the
Bombardier CRJ-700 and Embraer 170, both
of which have fallen victim to upgaging
to larger variants. A more likely future
rival, at least in Asia, may be the AVIC
MA700 70-seat turboprop expected to
fly in 2017.
Meanwhile, the ATR72-600 remains well
positioned for regional carriers requiring
the well-known benefits of a turboprop:
Low operating costs, operational flexibility, especially with regard to short/
soft field and high/hot operations, and
reduced noise footprint. The future of
the ATR72 appears to be, much like today,
in Asia, Latin America and Europe. Since
ATR's spectacular order intake at the
2014 Farnborough Air Show, rumors that
Bombardier might exit the market have
been mostly quelled by a spate of new Q400
orders suggesting that the duopoly will
continue, at least for now.

ATR72-600 Values As of April 2014, US$ Millions
Year of Build

Current
Market Value

Current Base
Value

 

2015

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2011

16.4

16.4

15.2

14.1

13.0

12.1

11.2

10.3

9.6

8.8

8.1

7.4

2012

17.0

17.0

15.8

14.6

13.6

12.6

11.7

10.8

10.0

9.3

8.5

7.9

2013

17.8

17.8

16.5

15.3

14.1

13.1

12.2

11.3

10.5

9.7

9.0

8.3

2014

18.5

18.5

17.1

15.8

14.7

13.6

12.6

11.7

10.9

10.1

9.4

8.7

2015

20.1

20.1

18.5

17.1

15.9

14.7

13.6

12.7

11.8

10.9

10.1

9.4

Future Base Values Inflated at 2% per annum

Aircraft specification: MTOW 50,265 lbs (22,800 kg), engine P&W PW127M
The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the
information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.

Largest ATR72-600 Operators

ATR72-600 Current Status

Operator

Country

Region

Aircraft

Region

In Service

Backlog

Stored

Azul

Brazil

Latin America

40

Africa

6

 

 

19

Asia Pacific

101

33

2

Europe & CIS

29

46

 

Latin America

60

15

 

Wings Air

Indonesia

Asia Pacific

Malindo Air

Malaysia

Asia Pacific

11

UNI Airways

Taiwan

Asia Pacific

11

Garuda Indonesia

Indonesia

Asia Pacific

8

Stobart Air

Ireland

Europe & CIS

Virgin Australia

Australia

Asia Pacific

Middle East

2

20

 

North America

9

5

 

8

Other

 

30

 

8

Total

207

149

2

Jetrader  *  Summer 2015 45
Jetrader - Summer 2015

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