Jetrader - Summer 2017 - 45

Boeing 737-800
The Boeing 737-800 forms part of the
3rd generation 737 family, namely the NG
series, of which there are five main models, encompassing the 130-seat 737-600,
737-700 (149 seats), 737-800 (189 seats),
737-900 (189 seats) and 737-900ER
(215 seats). Since 2006, production has
centred around three of these models,
namely the -700, -800 and -900ER.
The Boeing 737-800 competes directly
with the Airbus A320-200 and is the natural successor to the 737-400. The -800 is
slightly longer than the A320 but features
a more substantial 10ft fuselage stretch
over the Boeing 737-400, which increased
maximum seat capacity to 189.
To date, Boeing has delivered 4,441 passenger-configured examples of the -800,
and the model is in service with 190 airline
operators. It is estimated that around ten
aircraft have been acquired for teardown,
while a further 11 have been destroyed in
incidents and accidents. Trying to ascertain precise order backlog is difficult given
that Boeing is gradually feeding the MAX
8 and even the MAX 9 into the production
system, and that operators keep switching
orders between NG and MAX. However, we
estimate the backlog to be around 620
units, though this may be conservative.
A -P2F programme is now available for
the 737-800. The first candidate aircraft
have arrived for the re-work though we
have yet to see anything emerge from
the conversion centre. Delivery and service entry is set for this year or the next,
barring slippages.

Boeing 737 production has gradually been
ramped up to the present rate of 42 per
month, rising to 47 sometime this year and
eventually 57 per month - but when that
occurs, the MAX will likely account for most
of the production. These pure headline figures only tell half of the story mind as the
Boeing 737-800 has consistently accounted
for nearly 80 percent of recent NG production. Nominal numbers of -700s are produced these days, and the -900ER accounts
for most of the remaining production (apart
from BBJs, military applications, etc.).
The -800 has enjoyed a strong market position over its 19 years in service,
although there have been a few ups and
downs along the way. The financial collapse of 2008 resulted in some operator
failures - Futura, Excel Airways, Sterling
and latterly Malev around 2008-2012 -
which resulted in significant numbers of
-800s (and other NG models for that matter) coming to the market, but the affected
-800s were placed with new operators quite
quickly. While used Airbus A320-200 lease
rates came under pressure in 2012, the lease
rates of -800s held better by comparison.
In the secondary market, potential operators of -800s are quite selective in that

they want higher gross weight aircraft,
CFM56-7B26/27 rated engines and blended
winglets. Aircraft that do not meet these
requirements can be expected to trade at
discounts of between US$2 and $3 million.
In truth, there aren't many Boeing 737-800s
out there at this lower spec, and to see one
with eyebrow flight deck windows is quite
rare these days.
Despite the recent lower fuel prices,
which have resulted in operators keeping
their NG fleets longer and, in some cases,
deferring MAX deliveries (Virgin Australia,
for example), there is still a large value
difference between the fleets as there
are so many different specifications and
years of build. Our values grid should
give a broad presentation. However, it
should be noted that the numbers apply to
mid-time maintenance condition aircraft,
with good spec engines (CFM56-7B26/27)
winglets and high gross weights. IBA
would advise that care should be exercised with earlier specification aircraft,
especially when not fitted with carbon
brakes. We have heard exceptionally of
deals lower than US$ 7M on poor examples with engines run out to under 1,000
cycles remaining.

Base Values
Year of Delivery
2017
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
Engines
1998 - 2007
2008 - 2012
2013 on
MTOW (all)
All
All

CMV
47.92
44.84
39.49
34.60
30.44
26.78
23.41
20.40
17.57
15.01
12.49

2017
47.92
44.84
39.49
34.60
30.44
26.78
23.41
20.40
17.74
15.47
13.15

2018
44.76
41.75
36.85
32.31
28.44
25.03
21.70
18.99
16.50
14.42
12.23

2019
41.62
38.89
34.36
30.15
26.55
23.32
20.09
17.65
15.36
13.40
11.31

2020
38.72
36.21
32.03
28.11
24.77
21.60
18.66
16.37
14.27
12.43
10.43

2021
36.01
33.70
29.84
26.19
23.04
20.00
17.30
15.20
13.23
11.46
9.57

2022
33.48
31.34
27.77
24.38
21.41
18.55
16.01
14.08
12.23
10.53
8.74

2023
31.10
29.13
25.83
22.67
19.78
17.18
14.81
13.01
11.24
9.62
7.94

2024
28.88
27.06
24.00
21.06
18.32
15.87
13.68
11.98
10.28
8.76
7.16

2025
26.80
25.12
22.28
19.41
16.84
14.66
12.59
10.97
9.37
7.92
6.41

2026
24.84
23.29
20.67
17.95
15.51
13.52
11.56
10.00
8.48
7.11
5.69

2027
23.01
21.57
19.08
16.55
14.28
12.42
10.54
9.06
7.63
6.33
4.98

CFM56-7B26
CFM56-7B26/3
CFM56-7B26E
172,500 lb
winglets
Half life or average utilisation if new/young

Jetrader * Summer 2017 45

Jetrader - Summer 2017

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Summer 2017