Jetrader - Summer 2018 - 53

appraisal

Airbus A330-200

Fred J. Klein
ISTAT-Certified Senior Appraiser
and Appraiser Fellow
President
Aviation Specialists Group, Inc.
Tel: 1-703-736-9700
fred@asgroup.aero
www.asgroup.aero

Market Overview
Following its entry into service two
decades ago, the A330-200 became a
very popular widebody airliner and helped
facilitate, along with the 767-300ER, route
fragmentation - the phenomenon in which
smaller twin-aisle airplanes had the range,
size and operating economics to open
point-to-point routes between non-hub
cities. It is an efficient current-technology
widebody twin, is a member of the very
popular A330 family (over 1,300 in service
in early 2018) and enjoys high commonality with other current generation Airbus
jetliners. The A330-200 has achieved very
good market penetration for a twin-aisle
aircraft. Because of its positioning in an
active jetliner market segment and good
acceptance in the market, it has experienced good long-term demand and value
performance for most of its product cycle.
In recent times, however, market forces
have softened demand and values.
The A330 market segment is what Boeing
terms "small" widebodies, which includes
the 767-300ER, 787-8/9, A330-200/300/
800neo/900neo and A350-900XWB. These
airplanes are not so large that they present a financial risk during periods when
air traffic is soft and seats are hard to fill
and are economic to operate between city
pairs that have lower-to-medium-density
traffic as well as to supplement larger
A330-200
Curr Market Value
Base Values: 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030

widebody service on high density routes.
The -200 and its direct competitor, the
767-300ER which entered service in 1988,
have both built very good market mass for
widebody jetliners with about 560 -200s
flying with about 95 operators and about
440 767-300ERs in service with about 75
airlines. Boeing's 2017-2036 Current Market
Outlook forecasts that demand for this size
aircraft should be strong and about 5,000
of them will enter the fleet over the next
20 years.
Within the small widebody market segment, however, some change is occurring.
First, as traffic has grown and airport and
airway congestion has increased, operators are migrating toward slightly larger
airplanes. The -200's order book is now very
small while its slightly larger sibling, the
A330-300, has enjoyed stronger demand
during the last several years and its market mass and operator base have grown.
At the same time, the older technology
767-300ER fleet is shrinking as the larger,
new technology 787-8 and -9 entered the
fleet earlier this decade.
Second, the market segment is becoming
more crowded as new technology Airbus
and Boeing small widebodies have been
entering the fleet in recent years. On the
Boeing side, the new technology 787-8
and -9, both of which have enjoyed strong
sales, bracket the A330-200 in terms of
seating capacity. Airbus is developing the
A330-800neo, which is about the same size
as the A330-200 (and which currently has
no orders) and the A330-900neo, which is
slightly larger than the -200 and has modest
sales, is scheduled to enter service this year.
The following table shows current and new
technology jetliners in this market segment:
The market for a number of widebody
jetliners has softened recently and some

VYTAUTAS KIELAITIS/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

Current and New Technology Small Twin Aisle Jetliners
767-300E787-8R
242236
5,500
1988
787-8
242
7,355
2011
A330-200
247
7,250
1998
A330-800NEA330-300O
257
7,500
2019 sched
A330-300
277
6,350
1993
A330-900NEO
287
6,550
2018 sched
787-9
290
7,635
2014

types including the A330-200 have experienced more weakness than others. As
the chart below indicates, the number of
parked A330s has been trending upward for
the last year. As of March 2018, 65 A330s
were parked, 48 of which were -200s which
represents a substantial 81/2 percent of the
fleet. Eighteen -200s were publicly available for sale or lease.
In summary, the A330-200 has good
widebody market mass, but it has been
suffering market softness for some time. In
addition, there is a shift within its strong,
competitive market segment toward larger
airplanes, and there is increased competition from new technology jetliners.
The table below shows ASG's value
opinions for the A330-200 and assumes a
1.5 percent annual inflation rate for Future
Base Values.

A330-200 Current Market and Base Values in US$ millions, 1.5% annual inflation
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
16.1 18.1 20.3 22.4 24.8 27.5 30.0 32.5 35.2 37.9 40.7 43.8 47.4 51.6 56.2 60.9 65.8
17.4 19.3 21.2 23.3 25.6 28.0 30.5 33.3 36.3 39.3 42.6 46.2 49.9 53.9 58.1 62.6 67.3
15.9 17.7 19.6 21.5 23.7 25.9 28.4 31.0 33.8 36.8 39.9 43.3 46.9 50.7 54.7 59.0 63.5
14.4 16.1 17.9 19.9 21.9 24.1 26.3 28.9 31.5 34.3 37.4 40.5 43.9 47.6 51.5 55.6 59.9
12.9 14.6 16.4 18.2 20.2 22.2 24.4 26.7 29.3 31.9 34.8 37.9 41.1 44.6 48.3 52.2 56.4
11.5 13.1 14.8 16.6 18.5 20.5 22.5 24.8 27.1 29.7 32.4 35.3 38.5 41.7 45.2 49.0 53.0
10.1 11.7 13.3 15.0 16.9 18.8 20.8 22.9 25.2 27.5 30.2 32.9 35.9 39.1 42.4 45.9 49.7
8.7 10.3 11.9 13.5 15.3 17.1 19.0 21.1 23.2 25.5 28.0 30.6 33.4 36.4 39.7 43.0 46.6
7.4
8.9 10.4 12.1 13.7 15.5 17.4 19.3 21.4 23.6 25.9 28.4 31.1 33.9 37.0 40.2 43.6
5.8
7.5
9.0 10.6 12.3 13.9 15.7 17.6 19.6 21.7 23.9 26.3 28.8 31.6 34.4 37.5 40.9
4.4
5.9
7.6
9.1 10.8 12.4 14.1 16.0 17.9 19.9 22.0 24.3 26.7 29.2 32.0 34.9 38.1
7.7
9.3 10.9 12.6 14.3 16.2 18.2 20.2 22.4 24.6 27.1 29.7 32.5 35.5
4.4
6.0
4.5
6.1
7.8
9.4
11.1 12.8 14.6 16.4 18.4 20.5 22.7 25.0 27.5 30.1 33.0
4.6
6.2
7.9
9.5 11.2 13.0 14.8 16.7 18.7 20.8 23.0 25.4 27.9 30.6

2015
71.5
72.3
68.3
64.5
60.8
57.2
53.8
50.5
47.3
44.3
41.5
38.6
36.0
33.5

2016
77.0
77.6
73.4
69.4
65.5
61.7
58.1
54.6
51.2
48.0
45.0
42.1
39.2
36.5

2017
82.6
83.1
78.8
74.5
70.4
66.4
62.6
59.0
55.4
52.0
48.7
45.6
42.7
39.8

2018
89.0
89.0
84.4
80.0
75.6
71.5
67.4
63.5
59.9
56.3
52.8
49.5
46.3
43.4

Jetrader * Summer 2018 53
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