Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 29

Airline Distribution by Region 2013
Middle East
4%
Africa
5%
Latin America
8%

Asia Pacific
25%

North America
33%

Europe
25%

Source: FLIGHTGLOBAL

Source: AIRBUS AND BOEING

existing and proposed twin-aisle and very large aircraft currently
on order. It's worth remembering that the 2013 population of
the Middle East (excluding Egypt, Turkey and Iran) was 164
million or 2.3 percent of the world total. The fact that Middle
East carriers (and the Big Three in particular) have ordered
more high-capacity aircraft than the rest of the world combined
is bound to increase the volume and frequency of complaints
from other airline CEOs. In fact, the strategic thinking of the
protagonists might have to be even more esoteric in order to
circumvent the ensuing vitriol.

The Future

The Rest

The Big Three Middle East carriers have the financial and operational resources to carry on growing their global market shares,
although, with the law of diminishing returns in mind, it is likely
to get increasingly difficult to maintain historic rates of growth
as political resistance increases. There is already a divergence in
strategy between the three airlines on how to bypass this issue
with Emirates trying to become a one airline global alliance, Qatar
joining the oneworld global alliance, and Etihad buying its own
global alliance. Can they all be right?
Who knows-one day soon, the Middle East region could just
be a little bit bigger than you might think.

A lot of coverage so far has been given to the three major
airlines of the region, but the Middle East has a long history of
air transport throughout, even if it is the GCC's economic development that has benefitted most from aviation. The human tragedy unfolding in Iraq and countries of the Levant has obviously
curtailed air transport growth in the northern and eastern parts
of the Middle East, but there is a strong catch-up potential here
once the political environment has normalized.
As the most populous nation and the center of the dominant
religion, Saudi Arabia and its flag-carrier have enjoyed a privileged
position in the Middle East air transport arena but, perhaps, the
complacency this brings has failed to keep Saudia in the same
league as the airlines of its smaller neighbors. Some long overdue
(but modest) liberalization could help to rejuvenate this underdeveloped market and its main participant.

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Jetrader - Winter 2014

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