Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 50

appraisal

Airbus A330-300
Angus Mackay
Principal
ICF International
Senior Appraiser, ISTAT
Tel: +1 617-218-2121
angus.mackay@icfi.com

Background

Market Outlook

Developed from the A300-600 together
with the A330-200, the A330-300 has benefitted from incremental improvements
over its 21-year production history. This
has resulted in a versatile aircraft serving
both intra-regional and long-haul markets.
Early variants, produced from 1993
through 1998, have a maximum take-off
weight (MTOW) range of 212 to 217 tonnes,
and a range profile between 3,900 and
4,300 nautical miles. Later variants have
introduced increased MTOWs over the years
of 233, 235 and, from 2015, 242 tonnes,
with a higher fuel capacity option increasing range to 6,100 nautical miles. More
recently, Airbus has announced a new
lower-weight regional A330 variant that
is optimized for use on domestic and
regional routes and has formally launched
a re-engined and upgraded A330neo family.
The A330 family was also Airbus's
first aircraft to offer three engine
choices: General Electric CF6-80E1, Pratt
& Whitney PW4000-100 and Rolls-Royce
Trent 700 series. There are currently 509
A330-300 aircraft in active service with
60 operators, with eight aircraft parked.
The order backlog stands at 165 aircraft.

Given its operational improvement over
time, the A330-300 has eclipsed its competitor, the Boeing 777-200, and meets
most mission profiles of the longer range
777-200ER. It is also considered a good
replacement candidate for the four-engined
A340-300.
Airbus has enhanced the A330-300 with
modest investment, and sales have risen
as 787 program delays increased. Future
competition is likely to come from the
300-seat 787-10, the Airbus A350-900 and
the A330-900, none of which will gain significant market penetration before the end
of the decade.
Airbus has been successful in differentiating the A330-300 from both the A350
XWB series and the A330-900. Competing
with the 787-9, the A330-900 is designed
to serve routes significantly longer than the
1,000 to 2,000 nautical miles intra-Asia and
European route lengths for which the A330300 is optimized and lists at $275 million
compared to $245 million for the A330-300.
The A330-300 is a mature product with
program investment largely recovered
enabling Airbus to price aggressively, supporting demand for the aircraft. Sales in

2013 reached 69 aircraft, and deliveries
are assured for several years. Moreover,
residual value retention support has been
strengthened with the announcement of an
enhanced MTOW retrofit program and the
establishment of a passenger-to-freighter
(PTF) program.
Presently robust, longer-term financing support will obviously affect residual
value retention and some potential downside risk may arise for banks and lessors
following introduction of new-technology
A350, A330neo and 787 aircraft. Similarly,
there is a high degree of fleet concentration in Asia and as this mature type ages
further, refleeting by Asian operators can
be expected to place downward pressure
on values.
With respect to engines, there are also
some market liquidity issues given the three
available engine options. The Rolls-Royce
Trent 700 is the market leader with around
57 percent market share. Thus A330-300
aircraft fitted with these engines enjoy a
remarketing advantage. Investors, however,
are increasingly becoming concerned about
the residual values associated with Trent
700 engines given the control exerted over
the aftermarket by the manufacturer.

Airbus A330-300 Value Matrix, $US Millions
Current
Current Base
Year Delivered
Future Base Values - Inflated at 1.5% Per Annum
Market value
value
2014
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2014
104.2
104.2
94.1
84.3
77.3
71.1
65.5
60.3
55.7
52.0
48.7
2012
91.4
91.4
83.4
76.4
70.0
64.1
58.9
54.7
50.9
47.5
44.4
2010
79.5
79.5
72.5
66.1
60.4
55.8
51.6
47.8
44.5
41.5
38.7
2008
68.9
68.9
62.5
57.4
52.8
48.6
44.9
41.6
38.7
36.1
33.7
2006
59.2
59.2
54.1
49.5
45.5
41.9
38.7
35.8
33.3
31.1
29.1
2004
50.5
50.5
46.0
42.1
38.7
35.6
33.0
30.6
28.6
26.7
25.0
2002
42.6
42.6
38.9
35.6
32.7
30.3
28.1
26.2
24.6
23.1
21.7
2000
35.5
35.5
32.5
29.9
27.7
25.8
24.1
22.6
21.4
20.2
19.0
1998
28.9
28.9
26.3
24.2
22.4
20.9
19.7
18.6
17.5
16.5
15.3
1996
23.1
23.1
21.4
20.0
18.9
17.9
17.1
16.3
15.5
14.6
13.7
1994
17.8
17.8
17.2
16.6
16.1
15.7
15.3
14.8
14.3
14.0
13.7
Note: Values for younger-build aircraft reflect a full-life to half-life maintenance condition transition over the forecast period.
Specifications: PW4000-100 engines; MTOW pre-1999 212 tonnes, 1999 and later 230 tonnes.
The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the
information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
50 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

2024
45.7
41.6
36.2
31.5
27.2
23.4
20.3
17.7
14.0
13.5
13.5

Jetrader - Winter 2014

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