Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 50
appraisal
Airbus A330-300
Angus Mackay
Principal
ICF International
Senior Appraiser, ISTAT
Tel: +1 617-218-2121
angus.mackay@icfi.com
Background
Market Outlook
Developed from the A300-600 together
with the A330-200, the A330-300 has benefitted from incremental improvements
over its 21-year production history. This
has resulted in a versatile aircraft serving
both intra-regional and long-haul markets.
Early variants, produced from 1993
through 1998, have a maximum take-off
weight (MTOW) range of 212 to 217 tonnes,
and a range profile between 3,900 and
4,300 nautical miles. Later variants have
introduced increased MTOWs over the years
of 233, 235 and, from 2015, 242 tonnes,
with a higher fuel capacity option increasing range to 6,100 nautical miles. More
recently, Airbus has announced a new
lower-weight regional A330 variant that
is optimized for use on domestic and
regional routes and has formally launched
a re-engined and upgraded A330neo family.
The A330 family was also Airbus's
first aircraft to offer three engine
choices: General Electric CF6-80E1, Pratt
& Whitney PW4000-100 and Rolls-Royce
Trent 700 series. There are currently 509
A330-300 aircraft in active service with
60 operators, with eight aircraft parked.
The order backlog stands at 165 aircraft.
Given its operational improvement over
time, the A330-300 has eclipsed its competitor, the Boeing 777-200, and meets
most mission profiles of the longer range
777-200ER. It is also considered a good
replacement candidate for the four-engined
A340-300.
Airbus has enhanced the A330-300 with
modest investment, and sales have risen
as 787 program delays increased. Future
competition is likely to come from the
300-seat 787-10, the Airbus A350-900 and
the A330-900, none of which will gain significant market penetration before the end
of the decade.
Airbus has been successful in differentiating the A330-300 from both the A350
XWB series and the A330-900. Competing
with the 787-9, the A330-900 is designed
to serve routes significantly longer than the
1,000 to 2,000 nautical miles intra-Asia and
European route lengths for which the A330300 is optimized and lists at $275 million
compared to $245 million for the A330-300.
The A330-300 is a mature product with
program investment largely recovered
enabling Airbus to price aggressively, supporting demand for the aircraft. Sales in
2013 reached 69 aircraft, and deliveries
are assured for several years. Moreover,
residual value retention support has been
strengthened with the announcement of an
enhanced MTOW retrofit program and the
establishment of a passenger-to-freighter
(PTF) program.
Presently robust, longer-term financing support will obviously affect residual
value retention and some potential downside risk may arise for banks and lessors
following introduction of new-technology
A350, A330neo and 787 aircraft. Similarly,
there is a high degree of fleet concentration in Asia and as this mature type ages
further, refleeting by Asian operators can
be expected to place downward pressure
on values.
With respect to engines, there are also
some market liquidity issues given the three
available engine options. The Rolls-Royce
Trent 700 is the market leader with around
57 percent market share. Thus A330-300
aircraft fitted with these engines enjoy a
remarketing advantage. Investors, however,
are increasingly becoming concerned about
the residual values associated with Trent
700 engines given the control exerted over
the aftermarket by the manufacturer.
Airbus A330-300 Value Matrix, $US Millions
Current
Current Base
Year Delivered
Future Base Values - Inflated at 1.5% Per Annum
Market value
value
2014
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2014
104.2
104.2
94.1
84.3
77.3
71.1
65.5
60.3
55.7
52.0
48.7
2012
91.4
91.4
83.4
76.4
70.0
64.1
58.9
54.7
50.9
47.5
44.4
2010
79.5
79.5
72.5
66.1
60.4
55.8
51.6
47.8
44.5
41.5
38.7
2008
68.9
68.9
62.5
57.4
52.8
48.6
44.9
41.6
38.7
36.1
33.7
2006
59.2
59.2
54.1
49.5
45.5
41.9
38.7
35.8
33.3
31.1
29.1
2004
50.5
50.5
46.0
42.1
38.7
35.6
33.0
30.6
28.6
26.7
25.0
2002
42.6
42.6
38.9
35.6
32.7
30.3
28.1
26.2
24.6
23.1
21.7
2000
35.5
35.5
32.5
29.9
27.7
25.8
24.1
22.6
21.4
20.2
19.0
1998
28.9
28.9
26.3
24.2
22.4
20.9
19.7
18.6
17.5
16.5
15.3
1996
23.1
23.1
21.4
20.0
18.9
17.9
17.1
16.3
15.5
14.6
13.7
1994
17.8
17.8
17.2
16.6
16.1
15.7
15.3
14.8
14.3
14.0
13.7
Note: Values for younger-build aircraft reflect a full-life to half-life maintenance condition transition over the forecast period.
Specifications: PW4000-100 engines; MTOW pre-1999 212 tonnes, 1999 and later 230 tonnes.
The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the
information contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.
50 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading
2024
45.7
41.6
36.2
31.5
27.2
23.4
20.3
17.7
14.0
13.5
13.5
Jetrader - Winter 2014
Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Winter 2014
A Message from the President
Calendar/News
Q&A: Robert T. Convey, Aeronautical Engineers, Inc.
ISTAT in Istanbul
Thank You to the ISTAT Europe 2014 Sponsors
State of the Regions: Middle East
Information is the ‘Lifeblood for Appraisers’
Aviation & Medical Technology
Generation Battle
ISTAT Foundation Supports Youth Aviation Experience
Is it Time for a Tune-Up?
Aviation History
Aircraft Appraisals
ISTAT Foundation
Advertiser.com
Advertiser Index
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - cover1
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - cover2
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 3
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 4
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - A Message from the President
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 6
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 7
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Calendar/News
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 9
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Q&A: Robert T. Convey, Aeronautical Engineers, Inc.
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 11
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - ISTAT in Istanbul
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 13
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 14
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 15
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 16
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 17
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 18
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 19
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 20
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 21
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 22
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 23
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Thank You to the ISTAT Europe 2014 Sponsors
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 25
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - State of the Regions: Middle East
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 27
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 28
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 29
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Information is the ‘Lifeblood for Appraisers’
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 31
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 32
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Aviation & Medical Technology
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 34
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 35
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Generation Battle
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 37
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 38
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 39
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - ISTAT Foundation Supports Youth Aviation Experience
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 41
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Is it Time for a Tune-Up?
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 43
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Aviation History
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 45
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 46
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 47
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 48
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Aircraft Appraisals
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 50
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - ISTAT Foundation
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 52
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - 53
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - Advertiser Index
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - cover3
Jetrader - Winter 2014 - cover4
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0418
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0318
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0218
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0118
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0417
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0317
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0217
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0117
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0416
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0316
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0216
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0116
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0415
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0315
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0215
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0115
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0414
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0314
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0214
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTQ0114
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0613
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0513
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0413
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0313
https://www.nxtbook.com/naylor/ISTS/ISTS0213
https://www.nxtbookmedia.com