Jetrader - Winter 2015 - 40

Trend Watching:
Comparison of the US and
EU regional markets and
their respective development
in the past 10 years

By Thomas Jaeger, ch-aviation GmbH

Over the last 10 years, regional airlines in Europe and the U.S.
have seen many ups and downs. Changing factors include the rise
of low cost carriers (LCCs), new high-speed rail services in Europe,
industry consolidation, increasing costs (jet fuel > 100 USD per
barrel for the majority of the last few years) and new legislation
(EU Emissions Trading System, environmental taxes in various EU
countries and new pilot rest and minimum flight hour rules in the
U.S.). In response, many existing regional carriers introduced a
new generation of aircraft (large regional jets and turboprops)
into their fleets. Some were only able to do so as scope clauses
of their mainline partners were relaxed.
The total market's general trend (not just regional aircraft) shows
that while the number of flights in Europe has remained relatively
stable according to OAG data (3.1 percent growth between 2005
and 2015), available weekly seat capacity has increased by a much
faster 29.7 percent. This increase has been achieved by upgauging,
with the average capacity per flight increasing from 112 seats in
2005 to 140 in 2015.
Meanwhile, industry consolidation in the U.S. was a key driver in
weekly flights decreasing by 19 percent in the same 10-year timeframe. While capacity has shrunk as well, it is down only 6.3 percent.
Analysis of weekly capacity offered by U.S. regional carriers shows
the trend toward higher capacity aircraft between 2005 and 2015.
U.S. Regional Carrier Weekly
Capacity by Aircraft Size
Aircraft Size

2005

2015

Smaller than 19 seats
(turboprops, pistons and bizjets)

76,648

85,222

11%

19-seat turboprops

133,827

15,447

-88%

< 50 seat jets

129,790

1,472

-99%

< 50 seat turboprops

545,269

127,969

-77%

50-69 seat jets

2,572,342 1,447,150

% Change

-44%

50-69 seat turboprops

43,668

49,600

14%

70-89 seat jets

545,238

1,245,514

128%

70+ seat turboprops

122,662

248,938

103%

90-120 seat jets

242,130

895,507

270%

Grand Total

4,411,574 4,116,819

-7%

Changes in scope clauses with legacy carrier unions combined
with consolidation has led to regional jets (RJs) with fewer than
50 seats gradually being replaced in the last few years, although
the pace may be moderating given low fuel costs. Larger RJs have
benefitted with the number of available seats up over 100 percent
entirely and to more than 100 percent growth for 70-seat RJs, turboprops and larger RJs. The modest 11 percent growth of seats flown
by aircraft with less than 19 seats likely stems from an increased
usage of nine-seat aircraft on subsidized essential air services (EAS)
routes in the U.S. previously served with larger 19-seat aircraft.
The same development is observed when reviewing the
weekly capacity offered by European regional carriers in 2005
versus 2015.
European Regional Carrier Weekly
Capacity by Aircraft Size
Aircraft Size

2005

2015

< 19 seats
15,846
2,714
(turboprops, pistons and bizjets)
19-seat turboprops
36,030
18,002
< 50 seat jets
23,303
9,470
< 50 seat turboprops
175,864
134,593
50-69 seat jets
502,676
87,134
50-69 seat turboprops
522,953
128,842
70-89 seat jets
131,424
238,939
70+ seat turboprops
659,214
895,751
90-120 seat jets
928,143 1,300,449
2,995,453 2,815,894
Grand Total

% Change
-83%
-50%
-59%
-23%
-83%
-75%
82%
36%
40%
-6%

While overall, European regional aircraft capacity has only
been reduced by 6 percent, the only growing segments have been
aircraft with 70 seats or more (both RJs and turboprops). Change
in Europe was less driven by scope clause considerations but more
by economies of scale in general.
Comparing the types of European regional airlines and their
respective weekly capacities between 2005 and 2015 shows that
only three business models now have a higher capacity than
10 years ago (franchise, in-house operations of regional aircraft
by mainline carriers and virtual carriers).

40 The official publication of the International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading

Jetrader - Winter 2015

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Winter 2015