Jetrader - Winter 2018 - 41

Background
The A350-900 is a member of the A350
XWB family, which was developed to succeed
the A340 and compete with the 787 and 777.
As of July 2018, the A350-900 had 722 firm
orders from 46 airline operators with 184
deliveries, leaving a backlog of 538. The
aircraft hasn't experienced the same level
of entry into service issues that some new
entrants have faced in recent years. As of
July 2018, Airbus claims dispatch reliability
of 99.9 percent, with ZERO in-flight shutdowns, while early 787-8s had initial dispatch
reliability of 96 percent before improving to
99.3 percent by the end of 2017.
The A350-900 and A350-1000 are now the
only two models of the A350 XWB family with
the last remaining A350-800 order converted
to the A350-900 in March 2018. Airbus has
been ramping up production and aims to
manufacture 10 A350s a month by the end
of 2018. Although the A350 XWB family has
Rolls-Royce as its sole source engine supplier, there are two distinct engines - the
Trent XWB-84 for the A350-900 and the
Trent XWB-97 for the A350-1000. The A350
XWB family fuselage is built with carbonfibre reinforced plastic, which results in
lower fuel burn, easier maintenance and
increased resistance to corrosion. The wings
are also more efficient and quieter due to
their advanced design, which allows them to
tailor the wings for maximum aerodynamic
efficiency during flight.
Passenger capacity for the A350-900 is
in the range of 280 to 366 seats in typical
three-class configuration. The A350-900
initially had an MTOW of 275 tons and a
range of 7,500 nautical miles/13,890 km

Market Outlook
With steady growth in passenger traffic
in the past decade and growth projections
around 5 percent annually for the next
decade, the future for twin-engine widebody

JORDAN TAN/SHUTTERSTOCK.COM

in standard three-class configuration with
325 passengers. These were increased to
280 tons MTOW and 8,100 nm/15,000 km.
Driven by an aerodynamic performance
improvement package (larger winglets, wing
twist, enhanced flap supporting fairings and
modified over-wing fairings), these enhancements were introduced with MSN 219 in June
2018 and are standard. The A350-900ULR
was launched in 2015, with first delivery in
September 2018 to Singapore Airlines. The
A350-900ULR offers increased fuel capacity,
enabling service on nonstop flights of up to
20 hours (9,700 nm/18,000 km), the longest
of any commercial aircraft currently flying.
The extended range capability does not
require installation of additional fuel tanks,
and the A350-900ULR can be reconfigured to
standard specifications if required.
The A350 XWB family has penetrated
nicely into the twin-aisle market with a
strong worldwide customer base. As of
July 2018, the biggest four operators are
Singapore Airlines (67), United Airlines (45),
Etihad Airways (40) and Qatar Airways (39).
The A350 is well positioned against the
777 and 787, and it commands the highest
overall backlog in the twin-engine widebody aircraft segment. The below graph
demonstrates the competitive environment
for the four twin-engine widebody aircraft
types - 777, 787, A330 and A350.

aircraft remains positive. Worldwide yearover-year economic growth, a growing
middle class and lowered fares due to
competition are expected to drive the projected growth. Last year, IATA estimated
global airline profits at $38 billion, but they
are projected to decline to a still-robust
$33.8 billion in 2018 per its June 2018 forecast. Global passenger load factor is above
81 percent, limiting increased loads as a
source of additional capacity, benefitting
future aircraft demand, which should only
be partially offset by cabin densification.
Airlines are upgauging long haul flights at
increasingly congested airports to meet
increased passenger demand and are adding
new long haul routes, both of which benefit
demand for widebody aircraft. Twin-engine
widebody aircraft are benefitting more than
their four-engine counterparts given lower
operating costs and their being easier to fill.
With the A380 and 747 falling out of
favor, the impending replacement cycle of
777-200s and older 777-300s, combined
with non-availability of the 777X at present, the A350 is expected to see good
demand for the foreseeable future. Demand
will also benefit from the A350s use of the
latest technology, lowering maintenance
costs and fuel consumption.

SOURCE: AIRBUS, BOEING

Amit Kumar Tyagi
ISTAT Certified Appraiser
Chief Intelligence Officer
Acumen Aviation
+91 80 42673902
amit.tyagi@acumenaviation.ie
www.acumenaviation.ie

Type: A350-900
Future Base Values at 1.5% Inflation(All values in millions of U.S. Dollars)

Year

Current
Market Value

2018 Base
Values

2019

2020

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018

101.4
109.5
118.0
127.0
136.7
150.2

102.4
110.5
119.1
128.2
138.0
151.6

96.1
103.9
112.2
120.8
130.1
142.5

90.3 84.5 78.4 72.6
67.1
97.6
91.6 85.8 79.6 73.6
105.4 99.0
93.1
87.0
80.8
113.8 107.0 100.4 94.4 88.3
122.6 115.5 108.5 101.9 95.8
134.3 126.7 119.4 112.3 105.5

62.1
68.1
74.8
81.9
89.7
99.1

57.4
63.0
69.2
75.9
83.1
93.0

53.5
58.2
63.9
70.2
77.0
86.3

49.7
54.3
59.1
64.9
71.2
80.0

46.0
50.4
55.1
60.1
65.8
74.0

42.5
46.8
51.2
55.9
60.9
68.4

39.0
43.1
47.4
52.0
56.7
63.2

35.7
39.6
43.7
48.2
52.8
58.8

32.3
36.2
40.2
44.4
48.9
54.7

29.2
32.8
36.7
40.8
45.1
50.7

26.1
29.5
33.3
37.3
41.4
46.9

2021

2022

2023

Jetrader * Winter 2018 41

SOURCE: ACUMEN AVIATION

appraisal

Airbus A350-900
http://www.acumenaviation.ie
Jetrader - Winter 2018

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - Winter 2018
