Jetrader - July/August 2013 - 19

appraisal

Boeing 747-400F
David Griffin, Associate
BK Associates
Tel: 516-365-6272
David.Griffin@bkassociates.com

Background
Current and Future Outlook

The Boeing 747-400F received Federal Aviation Administration
certiﬁcation in October 1993 with the ﬁrst deliveries to Cargolux
beginning later that year. The extended range version, titled the
Boeing 747-400ERF, was certiﬁed in October 2002 and continued
to be built until 2009. Seventeen customers have ordered a
total of 124 of the 747-400 freighters, including 32 of the 747400ER freighters. This aircraft represented a major technological
improvement over its predecessor, the Boeing 747-200F, including
advanced engines, use of lighter aluminum alloys, winglets and
increased range. The introduction of a glass cockpit allowed the
reduction of ﬂight crew from three to two. The largest operators
of 747-400 freighter aircraft at the time of writing include Atlas
(24), Korean Air (22) and China Airlines (18). The engine market
leader is the General Electric CF6-80C2 series (59 percent) followed by Pratt & Whitney PW4000 series (33 percent) and the
Rolls-Royce RB211 (8 percent).
A passenger-to-freighter program is also in existence, with
Boeing performing its ﬁrst conversion in 2005. To date, there
have been 82 conversions—50 of these were completed by Boeing.
There is signiﬁcant feedstock for conversion with 12 of the 747400s available for sale and another 27 in storage. BK Associates
subscribes to the opinion that factory-built and Boeing-converted
aircraft are approximately the same value. Non-Boeing conversions
are valued at slightly less.

Given the high fuel pricing, weak cargo market and other
economic factors, we consider the 747-400F current market
conditions to be soft with little chance of improvement. With
worldwide cargo demand falling for the second consecutive year
in 2012 and a forecasted slight increase of 0.4 percent increase
in revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2013, we are seeing an accelerated rate of retirement. Currently there are 19 aircraft available
for sale with another 15 in storage. There is currently a healthy
demand for 747-400 parts, as the aircraft is at the beginning
of its end-of-life cycle, which has led to an increase in part-outs.
While sales of its replacement aircraft (Boeing 747-8) have
been slow, its greatest competition has come from the Boeing
777-F. Although it has a reduced maximum takeoff weight (MTOW)
of 766,800 pounds, its increased range and lower operating
economics stemming from its twin engines have made it more
attractive to customers. Recently we have seen operators of the
747-400F transitioning into the 777-F, while some airlines have
converted their 747-8 orders to 777-F orders. Despite this, the
superior size of the 747-400F should mean that the aircraft will
operate successfully in a niche market into the future.
It is worth noting that with the residual values of the 747400F dropping, the aircraft may be more attractive to smaller
carriers who currently operate the -200F/-300F.

Speciﬁcations
B747-400F

B747-8F

B777-F

910,000

870,000

987,000

766,800

4,445

Range, nm

B747-400BCF

875,000

Max Takeoff Weight, lbs

B747-400ERF

4,970

4,100

4,475

4,900

Current and Future Values
B747-400F (CF6-80C2-B1F), MTOW = 875,000 lbs
Yr Of Mfg

CMV

Future Base Values - Inflated at 2.5% per annum

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2000

61.1

69.4

66.0

63.2

60.5

57.7

54.9

51.7

48.5

45.8

43.0

39.7

2001

64.7

73.2

69.7

66.7

63.9

61.0

58.0

54.8

51.4

48.7

45.8

42.5

2002

68.4

77.1

73.4

70.1

67.2

64.3

61.2

57.7

54.2

51.5

48.6

45.1

2003

72.1

81.1

77.1

73.6

70.6

67.6

64.3

60.8

57.1

54.3

51.4

47.9

2004

75.7

84.9

80.7

77.1

74.0

70.8

67.4

63.8

59.9

57.2

54.2

50.7

2005

79.4

88.8

84.4

80.6

77.4

74.0

70.5

66.8

62.8

60.0

57.0

53.5

The aircraft values stated herein are the product and the property of independent third-party sources, and ISTAT neither approves nor endorses the information
contained herein or the use thereof for any purpose whatsoever.

Jetrader • July/August 2013 19

http://www.naylornetwork.com/ist-nxt/

Jetrader - July/August 2013

Table of Contents for the Digital Edition of Jetrader - July/August 2013