Jetrader - September/October 2013 - 35

Air cargo trafﬁc is forecasted to average
5 percent growth over the next 20 years
and world trade and GDP levels to return
toward historic rates of growth. Together,
growth and replacement needs in the
cargo market should account for a demand
for 2,300 freighter deliveries over that
period—about 1,450 through conversion
and the balance new airplanes.
“This is a market highly tied to growth
and trade. In recent times, trade hasn’t
grown and the freighter market has
remained ﬂat. As trade comes back, we’ll
see that market grow again,” said Tinseth.

CMO: There’s an App for That
From its start as a print publication, Boeing’s
well-respected annual long-range market
report has morphed today into largely an
online digital product. The report (including
a PDF version) and related feature materials are available on Boeing’s website at
www.boeing.com/cmo. Boeing also provides
access to forecast component data through
an interactive database found on the site
(www.boeing.com/cmo/data). For 2013, the
company has refreshed an iPad app introduced
as part of last year’s CMO that provides mobile
access to its detailed global and regional
market data, and features photos of Boeing’s extensive airplane product line. The
CMO app is available for free through the Apple iTunes store. (Boeing graphic)

policies?’ We see them outsourcing more
and trying to ﬁnd the right balance in
terms of their operations. They’re working
really hard to ensure their capacity and
supply are balanced, and customers are
managing supply as well as they ever had
in the past,” he said.
The 2013 CMO comes as some in the
industry continue to speculate on the
wisdom for the current record production
levels by both major airframers.
However, Boeing says their customers
are getting it right in terms of being
prepared for continued tough competition
for the growing global air-travel market,
which jibes with the company’s own market
approach.
“Our customers are focused on growing
their networks, managing their capacity
and investing in new ﬂeets,” said Tinseth.
“These trends will shape market demand
for airplanes that have high efﬁciency, low
operating costs, environmentally progressive technologies and a great passenger
experience. We believe Boeing’s current
and future products are perfectly aligned
to meet those needs,” Tinseth said.

Growth Factors
While each edition reﬂects a “clean
sheet” approach to industry forecasting,
this latest CMO continues to foresee sustained global growth spurred by emerging
economies which, along with developing
nations, will represent a majority of the
world’s growth over the next two decades.

CMO’s Sustained Value

The expected fastest-growing regions are
led by Asia Paciﬁc, Latin America and the
Middle East and consequently will be the
destinations for 52 percent of the new
airplane deliveries over that time.

Regional Balance Prevails
Continuing a trend seen in recent annual
market updates by the company, the 2013
forecasted market outlook for new airplanes
continues to show more geographic balance
in the decades ahead.
Asia-Pac if ic, including China, is
expected to lead in total airplane deliveries. Among the regions, market expectations are about the same as in the 2012
outlook with minor increases forecasted in
all regions with the exception of Europe
and North America.
Already 31 percent of the latest CMO
is represented in the backlogs of the two
majors.
“There’s no question in our minds that
demand is there and that it’s balanced,”
said Tinseth. “What remains to be seen is
who will end up operating these aircraft,
and how industry regulation will proceed
in the time ahead. We’re ready to adjust
along with our customers.”

In a year when market conditions
haven’t substantially moved, why does
Boeing see the need to follow through
with clean-sheet approach to its forecasting
efforts and issue an update?
“At the end of the day, we use the
forecast for a few important reasons,” said
Tinseth. “We use it to help develop our
product strategy and to develop our business
plan. We also share it with our suppliers
and with airline customers to help in their
planning. The better the forecast, the better
we do in our strategy, and the better we
do in the advice we give. The result is that
we have a proven track record as the most
accurate forecast in the industry.”
Thanks to Boeing for supplying editorial
content for this story.

Cargo Update
Despite air cargo’s challenges of the
last few years, the new Boeing outlook
reﬂects the market’s remarkable stability
over the long haul for industries requiring
time-sensitive shipping.
Jetrader • September/October 27/02/13 35 PM
2013 8:43

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Jetrader - September/October 2013

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